According to The Guardian Australia, the Commonwealth Bank reported this week that the share of its customers behind on mortgage repayments has climbed to a 12-year high, while ANZ's 90-day arrears rate hit a five-year high of 0.95%. ANZ chief executive Nuno Matos told parliament that customers in hardship arrangements had risen 10% in the past six months.
Bank Data Confirms What the Debt Helpline Already Knew
CBA's arrears disclosure this week was the first hard confirmation, from a major lender, that mortgage stress has moved from anecdote into balance-sheet reality. ANZ's figures were more granular: 0.95% of its mortgage book is now 90 days or more in arrears, the highest level in five years, and Matos confirmed hardship arrangements are up 10% over six months.
Staff said people are skipping meals, leaving prescriptions unfilled, cancelling children's activities and relying on food banks because "you can't ask a supermarket for a hardship arrangement." Her point is critical: much of this stress has not shown up in official arrears figures until now, because households were making desperate efforts to avoid missing a payment.
That gap between felt stress and recorded stress is exactly why CBA's and ANZ's disclosures matter.
Why the Numbers Don't Match the Mood
The RBA this month lifted its cash rate to its highest level since 2008, and governor Michele Bullock said she could not yet see the economy "cracking" under the strain, per Guardian Australia. Household spending kept growing that week, with particular strength in electronic goods and dining out, according to CBA. The RBA expects the economy to grow by at least 1% next year. Yet consumer confidence has slumped to levels typically seen during recessions, according to Westpac surveys — a disconnect between how the economy looks on paper and how households say they feel.
AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina told Guardian Australia that unemployment will probably hit 5% by July — back to pre-pandemic levels — up from the current 4.7%. She noted households have been worn down by four years of high inflation and are increasingly blaming government and the RBA for failing to fix it, telling the paper: "I'm at the whim of government or the central bank or politicians overseas determining my livelihood." Still, AMP expects Australia to avoid recession, with most of the pain showing up as longer job searches and slower wage growth rather than mass layoffs.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority warned on Thursday that "substantial" job losses could snowball into a "more severe" financial shock, Guardian Australia reported. That warning sits alongside a run of high-profile redundancy rounds — National Australia Bank cutting 2,500 jobs in October, Canva cutting 1,200, and Qantas scrapping 850 Australian roles this week.
Background: Rents, Inflation and the Wait for Relief
Renters are not insulated either: the Scanlon Foundation's 2026 social cohesion survey of 10,000 adults found 30% of respondents went without meals, could not pay rent or mortgage, or could not afford heating, cooling or medicines in the past 12 months. For a fuller picture of how rental conditions, vacancy and yield pressures interact with this kind of household stress, see APF's Australian Rental Market Analysis.
What This Means for Borrowers, Investors and Lenders
ANZ's chief executive said arrears are expected to continue to deteriorate.
Falling house prices have, as Guardian Australia notes, helped affordability at the margin even as arrears climb — a reminder that price softness and repayment stress are two separate pressures that can coexist. Readers tracking rate-sensitive borrowing metrics in more depth can also follow macro analysis via WealthWatchPro's macro coverage.
Buyers weighing representation in this environment may find it useful to review What is a Buyer's Agent?, particularly where distressed or mortgagee-driven listings start appearing.
The practical takeaway for Australian households and investors is that mortgage stress has stopped being a soft, anecdotal story and become a hard data point on major bank ledgers.
Further reading
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed for accuracy. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or property investment advice.