According to MacroBusiness on 4 November 2026, CBA forecasts a 14 per cent national peak-to-trough decline. This is a reported forecast, not an observed decline or an independently verified CBA release.
Australian dwelling values across the five major capital cities have declined 8.5% from their 10 April 2026 peak, according to Cotality's daily dwelling values index, with the pace of decline accelerating to 4.6% over the past quarter. This decline is now approaching the previous 40-year record of 8.6% recorded between November 2017 and May 2019.
Following the Reserve Bank's 0.25% rate hike on 3 November 2026 (the fifth increase of 2026, lifting the cash rate to 4.85%), major banks have revised forecasts downward. The Commonwealth Bank now expects national dwelling values will decline by 14% peak-to-trough, with the five major capital city markets falling 15%. Perth, Brisbane and Sydney are forecast to record the greatest declines at 18%, 18% and 16% respectively.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has updated his forecast to expect a 15% decline across combined capital cities, describing it as consistent with a "perfect storm" hitting the property market. ANZ forecasts a 13.5% peak-to-trough decline across capital cities, with Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane expected to fall by more than 15%. ANZ notes that clearance rates have been mostly below 50% since May 2026 and that while Sydney and Melbourne have been most affected so far, smaller capitals are beginning to catch up.
With values already down 8.5% from peak, the combined forecasts from major banks indicate the market is significantly progressed through the projected downturn. The 14% projected national decline is expected to lift the national gross rental yield to around 4.75%.
For market analysis and comparison, see What is a Buyer's Agent? and Regional vs City Property Investment.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed for accuracy. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or property investment advice.
