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The great and ongoing immigration debate; I'm a 55 yo Aussie with all 4 grandparents and both parents born here
Topic Started: 8 Dec 2013, 07:45 PM (5,065 Views)
CSI
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In essence Birrell sees the high migration rates of the past decade as being due to both Coalition and Labor governments worrying that there would not be enough labour to feed the mining boom. Beyond that, he doesn’t see it as having much effect on the ageing population.

Mining is a capital, not labor, intensive. Did we really need such extraordinarily high immigration for that? The "ageing population" is a long-term issue, and since when do your average politicians or businesspeople plan that far ahead? And rapid growth only makes this worse in the long run. And "skills shortages"? Vastly overrated.

Businessmen and politicians just assume, without question, that population growth is good. Its a matter of faith to them. More consumers, more constituents, cheaper labor. All these reasons they came up with are just vague excuses to convince ordinary people, who don't benefit as much from further population growth.

Although there may still be some limited benefit from continued population growth. But slower, more cautious growth which will be easier to wind down when the time comes. The growth we are pushing now is reckless and far too high.
Edited by CSI, 9 Dec 2013, 07:59 PM.
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Logic
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CSI
9 Dec 2013, 07:49 PM

Mining is a capital, not labor, intensive. Did we really need such extraordinarily high immigration for that? The "ageing population" is a long-term issue, and since when do your average politicians or businesspeople plan that far ahead? And rapid growth only makes this worse in the long run. And "skills shortages"? Vastly overrated.

Businessmen and politicians just assume, without question, that population growth is good. Its a matter of faith to them. More consumers, more constituents, cheaper labor. All these reasons they came up with are just vague excuses to convince ordinary people, who don't benefit as much from further population growth.

Although there may still be some limited benefit from continued population growth. But slower, more cautious growth which will be easier to wind down when the time comes. The growth we are pushing now is reckless and far too high.
"Reckless and too high....?"

The growth in our immigration, natural growth or our demographic momentum?

On immigration, permanent is the main measure as temp visa holders are just that, temp visa holders.
On emigration, it is still rising, setting new records in actual numbers and as a percentage of permanent arrivals.
On our natural growth, decline is assured as our actual deaths double over the next few decades.
On our momentum, not much can change here apart from obesity rates and early deaths.

Match immigration with emigration perhaps?
Exclude temp visa holders from out official numbers, as recommended by the OECD. The 2006 changes to the methodology made a considerable difference to out official growth rates.

My thinking now is that Oz is likely to peak just under 30 million in 2040, then hold or slightly decline.
I would also like to see slightly more than replacement fertility, however after being less than replacement for over 40 years, I am not sure rates above 2.1 are possible in the short term.
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marty
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How I got it wrong on migration

Rob Burgess
6 Dec, 5:13 PM

Can Australia continue to prosper, and keep improving our cultural, democratic and judicial institutions, if we keep letting in so many migrants?
This article shows how a supporter of Big Australia intends to delude the public.

1. Play on fear of the invading hordes by becoming a “true middle-power” and “to not appear virtually deserted by our populous neighbours to the north”. As if presenting an economy with low growth population is the last thing the world needs. It is the first thing the world needs to see.

2. Play on sense of lack of fairness in not doing enough to settle “the displaced people of our region”. This is despite the fact Aus is number one in the world in terms of percentage of immigrants resettled.

The ploy of high immigration is not cynical, it is just the business model chosen by proponents of the Ponzi. We do not need it function optimally.
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Dr Watson
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herbie
9 Dec 2013, 06:34 PM
Without having any specifics as such in my mind at all.
I'm lost.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

marty
9 Dec 2013, 09:11 PM
This is despite the fact Aus is number one in the world in terms of percentage of immigrants resettled.

Got any evidence of that?
And something more than what you read or wrote on MB.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/12/a-small-win-on-immigration/#comment-305208
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The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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herbie
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Dr Watson
10 Dec 2013, 07:57 AM
I'm lost.
Have a read of your own signature and you may get a bit less lost perhaps Doc? (As to my position of this one anyway.)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Elastic
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If you look at the US Herbie, then I see a country where 50 million people are on food stamps in order to get by.
Is this a function of the handout mentality or is it a symptom of capitalism whereby the rich get richer and a greater proportion of the population just struggle to make ends meet?
It's hard to imagine that anybody except the privileged still view the US as an excellent working model of what societies should aspire towards.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Count du Monet
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Elastic
10 Dec 2013, 12:41 PM
If you look at the US Herbie, then I see a country where 50 million people are on food stamps in order to get by.
Is this a function of the handout mentality or is it a symptom of capitalism whereby the rich get richer and a greater proportion of the population just struggle to make ends meet?
It's hard to imagine that anybody except the privileged still view the US as an excellent working model of what societies should aspire towards.
The aim of capitalism is to amass control of capital resources and marginalize everybody else. On that Marx was quite right, although I don't agree with his fix.
Edited by Count du Monet, 10 Dec 2013, 12:50 PM.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Frank Castle
10 Dec 2013, 08:09 AM
Quote:
 
marty
9 Dec 2013, 08:11 PM
This is despite the fact Aus is number one in the world in terms of percentage of immigrants resettled.



Got any evidence of that?
And something more than what you read or wrote on MB.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/12/a-small-win-on-immigration/#comment-305208
So you have nothing to support your steaming pile of bearshit.

Here are the REAL numbers for you

Posted Image

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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Count du Monet
10 Dec 2013, 12:50 PM
The aim of capitalism is to amass control of capital resources and marginalize everybody else. On that Marx was quite right, although I don't agree with his fix.
capitalism isn't perfect, but then no system is and it's by far the best we have found so far.

this is probably the part where you launch into some crazy rant which amounts to if it's isn't perfect we should just give up on it.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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