So does anyone on this thread actually have evidence that reported FHB numbers, in states like say Queensland, are actually limited to applicants for FHOG-style grants???
Once again, as previously pointed out in the last such thread, FHBs in Queensland can apply for stamp duty concession whether they buy new-built (or off-the-plan) housing or not.
And even in states where FHBs may not qualify for either FHOG or stamp-duty concession, it is quite likely that (many) lenders can identify FHB status simply by asking FHOG-qualification status questions, or by looking at their previous credit history.
E.g. "Are you buying a home for the first time?: Yes. Are you buying a newly-built home?: No." Those answers to those questions may disqualify a buyer from FHOG, in a given state, yet still identify the purchase as a FTB for ABS-reporting purposes.
So does anyone on this thread actually have evidence that reported FHB numbers, in states like say Queensland, are actually limited to applicants for FHOG-style grants???
Once again, as previously pointed out in the last such thread, FHBs in Queensland can apply for stamp duty concession whether they buy new-built (or off-the-plan) housing or not.
And even in states where FHBs may not qualify for either FHOG or stamp-duty concession, it is quite likely that (many) lenders can identify FHB status simply by asking FHOG-qualification status questions, or by looking at their previous credit history.
E.g. "Are you buying a home for the first time?: Yes. Are you buying a newly-built home?: No." Those answers to those questions may disqualify a buyer from FHOG, in a given state, yet still identify the purchase as a FTB for ABS-reporting purposes.
They are not recorded on the AFG software and the AFG FTB numbers are similar to the ABS data.
I'm quite certain that they are not being recorded, certainly none that I have processed have been.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Market share in QLD - I really don't know. Probably about 15% but that's a guess.
Well, AFG's QLD FTB business written for Jan - Mar 2013 would supposedly encompass a full 39% of all Great Start Grants awarded for that period, which would seem *really* unusually high for a network which is not primarily focused on FHB business.
Even in the more recent Jul-Sept period (the latest available from QLD), AFG would supposedly account for 25% of FHB business, based on GSG awards during the period.
Sorry, I think more than GSG awards are in play when determining what constitutes a FHB in QLD, whether for AFG or the ABS.
Well, AFG's QLD FTB business written for Jan - Mar 2013 would supposedly encompass a full 39% of all Great Start Grants awarded for that period, which would seem *really* unusually high for a network which is not primarily focused on FHB business.
Even in the more recent Jul-Sept period (the latest available from QLD), AFG would supposedly account for 25% of FHB business, based on GSG awards during the period.
Sorry, I think more than GSG awards are in play when determining what constitutes a FHB in QLD, whether for AFG or the ABS.
I disagree, but really I don't care that much. I find it interesting but not compelling.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
I disagree, but really I don't care that much. I find it interesting but not compelling.
Disagree on what basis? I've taken the AFG FHB figures from AFG's site, and the GSG award figures from the QLD OSR site.
There really isn't much doubt about either set of stats in isolation--the real question is whether they're defining and quantifying the same population of FHBs.
Unless AFG made stupendous market inroads into the available FHB market in Jan-Mar 2013--not something they're claiming--then the fact that AFG wrote FHB mortgages representing 39% of GSG awards in Jan-Mar 2013 more than likely means that AFG defined FHBs (or rather FHB mortgages) in QLD by criteria beyond GSG grants alone.
it is quite likely that (many) lenders can identify FHB status simply by asking FHOG-qualification status questions, or by looking at their previous credit history
I'm sure they could, but why would they bother, and even if they did, how would they communicate that information to the ABS? It sounds like the system is electronic, and ticking the FHB box is configured to trigger other systems that go off and initiate the establishment of the old grant, so there would be an incentive not to tick the box. If there's no reason for the lender to establish FHB status then why would they bother? Why give themselves unnecessary work for no reason?
Disagree on what basis? I've taken the AFG FHB figures from AFG's site, and the GSG award figures from the QLD OSR site.
There really isn't much doubt about either set of stats in isolation--the real question is whether they're defining and quantifying the same population of FHBs.
Unless AFG made stupendous market inroads into the available FHB market in Jan-Mar 2013--not something they're claiming--then the fact that AFG wrote FHB mortgages representing 39% of GSG awards in Jan-Mar 2013 more than likely means that AFG defined FHBs (or rather FHB mortgages) in QLD by criteria beyond GSG grants alone.
You might ask them...?
AFG are very strong in WA and Qld so it's possible that they do have 39% market share in Qld.
I don't have to ask how AFG collect the FTB information - I'm one of the people who give them the information and I know what I tell them. That said I'm not worried if people don't listen to what I've said. It doesn't bother me. I'm over it.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
I'm sure they could, but why would they bother, and even if they did, how would they communicate that information to the ABS? It sounds like the system is electronic, and ticking the FHB box is configured to trigger other systems that go off and initiate the establishment of the old grant, so there would be an incentive not to tick the box. If there's no reason for the lender to establish FHB status then why would they bother? Why give themselves unnecessary work for no reason?
In QLD at least, FHOG now applies to new-builds only, but stamp-duty concession still applies to any FHB purchase under roughly $600K (i.e. the vast majority of FHB purchases in QLD).
On a more theoretical basis (I accept from Peter's post that this isn't happening now, but it's a plausible future development), a lender might well want to ascertain FHB status as part of its internal loan risk-assessment model, regardless of any government grant or tax-concession associated with such status.
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