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The Data on First Homebuyers is Flawed
Topic Started: 5 Dec 2013, 12:01 PM (4,052 Views)
peter fraser
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Flawed Data skews homebuyer perception
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Questionable data and extensive media coverage of a decline in first home buyers has given Australians an inaccurate view of the sector, claim a number of industry stakeholders.

John Edwards, founder of property market analysts Residex, claims the spotlight is in the wrong place.

“There has potentially been too much media focus on the growth in dwelling prices and not enough focus on the individual market segments,” he said in his latest blog.

Mr Edwards said this may have created some misunderstandings about market activity, one being the supposed lack of first home buyers.

“The rental outcome suggests that there is a potential oversupply of unit stock in most markets, which is likely to be correct as this is where the majority of development activity is taking place.

“However, it also indicates that there is first home owner activity in the unit market. Tenants are taking advantage of lower interest rates and lower price growth rates and moving into home ownership via unit purchases,” he said.

The claims come amid a plethora of data and figures suggesting first home buyers are at all-time lows, which director at wHere Group Todd Hunter refuted in his own blog last month.

“It’s being bantered all over the press everywhere, the property market has outpriced first home buyers and they have magically disappeared … I personally would like to know who came up with this data and where it came from,” he said.

“I do agree, however, that it is becoming increasingly more difficult [for] first home owners to get into the market; especially in Australia’s capital cities… but let’s not over exaggerate things.”

Speaking with The Adviser, CEO of Mortgage Choice Michael Russell said he was wary of statistics claiming first home buyers have disappeared.

“When we look at data around first home buyers, like the ABS, it’s important to note that they’re counting the number of first home buyer concessions that have been claimed,” he said.

Most states, including NSW, Queensland and Victoria only offer first home owner grants for new homes, with Tasmania and South Australia joining the list later next year.

“Most first home buyers aren’t interested in newly-built homes and would rather buy closer to the city, so they don’t claim the concession,” explains Mr Russell.

“It is my opinion that the number of first home buyers is vastly under reported.”

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Sydneyite
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The reality of the FHB stats is slowly starting to filter out into the wider media - won't be long now until the big revelation! Remember, you read it here first! :oo:
Edited by Sydneyite, 5 Dec 2013, 04:07 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Catweasel
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Catweasel say what is a Australia without a opinion of ubiquitous white shoes?

And Catweasel say let a white shoes run wild with it.

Mouse can be the bombarded,

and not well equipped to deal with swarm,

it require critical think and inquisitive,

arch-enemy of a white shoes.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Sydneyite
5 Dec 2013, 12:06 PM
The relatity of the FHB stats is slowly starting to filter out into the wider media - won't be long now until the big revelation! Remember, you read it here first! :oo:
Yep, was first discussed here in February, then discussed in more detail here on APF in October. Then Property Observer mentioned it in November, and now it's finding it's way into the mainstream media. No doubt MacroBusiness will also eventually wake up to what's happening about a year after everyone else...
Edited by Shadow, 5 Dec 2013, 12:21 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Sydneyite
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Shadow
5 Dec 2013, 12:12 PM
Sydneyite
5 Dec 2013, 12:06 PM
The relatity of the FHB stats is slowly starting to filter out into the wider media - won't be long now until the big revelation! Remember, you read it here first! :oo:
Yep, was first discussed here in February, then discussed in more detail here on APF in October. Then Property Observer mentioned it in November, and now it's finding it's way into the mainstream media. No doubt MacroBusiness will also eventually wake up to what's happening about a year after everyone else...
Actually to be fair, MB have also had some discussion on this issue and they seem to have an open mind to the possibility of FHB data issues. But that was only a couple of months back, long after we started discussing it here! :oo:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Sydneyite
5 Dec 2013, 01:19 PM
Actually to be fair, MB have also had some discussion on this issue and they seem to have an open mind to the possibility of FHB data issues. But that was only a couple of months back, long after we started discussing it here! :oo:
It will be a hard point for MacroBusiness to concede, as it goes against one of their core arguments for the past year - i.e. that FHBs are 'priced out'. Same goes for Catherine Cashmore and David Collyer - they've spent the past year telling their followers that homes are unaffordable for FHBs and that FHBs are 'on strike'. Will be funny to watch them try to reconcile this position with the fact that FHB numbers are probably pretty close to their historical average.
Edited by Shadow, 5 Dec 2013, 01:25 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Dr Watson
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Shadow
5 Dec 2013, 01:24 PM
It will be a hard point for MacroBusiness to concede, as it goes against one of their core arguments for the past year - i.e. that FHBs are 'priced out'. Same goes for Catherine Cashmore and David Collyer - they've spent the past year telling their followers that homes are unaffordable for FHBs and that FHBs are 'on strike'. Will be funny to watch them try to reconcile this position with the fact that FHB numbers are probably pretty close to their historical average.
This isn't the fault of MacroBusiness. The whole issue has arisen from poor communication by the ABS and the MSM. If we had been told that what the ABS measures is not the number of FHB but the number of FHB concessions then the potential for confusion would have been minimised. With this in mind, it begs the question: what use is this data? Who cares about the number of concessions being claimed? Why is the ABS measuring the number of concessions claimed?
Edited by Dr Watson, 5 Dec 2013, 01:42 PM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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zaph
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Dr Watson
5 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM
This isn't the fault of MacroBusiness. The whole issue has arisen from poor communication by the ABS and the MSM. If we had been told that what the ABS measures is not the number of FHB but the number of FHB concessions then the potential for confusion would have been minimised. With this in mind, it begs the question: what use is this data? Who cares about the number of concessions being claimed? Why is the ABS measuring the number of concessions claimed?
Because in the past counting concessions was an easy and cheap way to count FHBs.

Mobs like the ABS don't change their methodology quickly or lightly. Has anyone been in touch with the RBA?
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Catweasel
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Dr Watson
5 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM
This isn't the fault of MacroBusiness. The whole issue has arisen from poor communication by the ABS and the MSM. If we had been told that what the ABS measures is not the number of FHB but the number of FHB concessions then the potential for confusion would have been minimised. With this in mind, it begs the question: what use is this data? Who cares about the number of concessions being claimed? Why is the ABS measuring the number of concessions claimed?
Catweasel say pin-pon.

Very easy for media, squawk guru, and white shoes to throw around a data,

because mouse not understand a methodologies, sampling the plan, data the design, nor a data the collection.

Then the again,

often the case,

neither does mouse's beloved media,

and bank the lackeys.

By the time it filter to scallys and mouzealots,

all a hell breaking the loose,

and a press release and white shoe propaganda,

fly the around,

like boomerangs at jamboree.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Dr Watson
5 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM
This isn't the fault of MacroBusiness. The whole issue has arisen from poor communication by the ABS and the MSM. If we had been told that what the ABS measures is not the number of FHB but the number of FHB concessions then the potential for confusion would have been minimised. With this in mind, it begs the question: what use is this data? Who cares about the number of concessions being claimed? Why is the ABS measuring the number of concessions claimed?
How else would the ABS get the numbers? There's no other way they could find such data outside a survey. They do ask the question in the Survey of Income and Housing, but that is only conducted every few years. The only way to get monthly data is via the application for FHB concessions when finance is being arranged.

If amateur APF members could figure this out months ago, how come MacroBusiness with its Chief Economist and property 'expert' Leith van Onselen couldn't figure it out?

I'll tell you why - it doesn't suit their agenda. They prefer to give the impression that FHBs are 'priced out' or 'on strike'.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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