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Strong November US ADP Jobs report; Private sector jobs up 215k in November
Topic Started: 5 Dec 2013, 01:31 AM (1,613 Views)
newjez
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Perthite
6 Dec 2013, 10:27 PM
Ok. So stay out of stocks....

They seem to tank on good news these days.
No, they like good news, they just don't like it to be too good.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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goldbug
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miw
6 Dec 2013, 05:47 PM
goldbug
6 Dec 2013, 05:39 AM
Retail outlets putting on extra staff for x-mass. The jobs will vanish come January
Nope. That is exactly what it is not. These are seasonally-adjusted numbers.
O, so these are the numbers they invent now to put on the front page in an attempt to boost xmass shopping sales, and then revise lower in 3 months time when no one cares. Got it.

Of course if you factor all the discouraged workers who have given up looking, the picture is quite different.

Posted Image

Take away food stamps and you have a classic depression in the USofA
Edited by goldbug, 7 Dec 2013, 03:20 AM.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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peter fraser
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goldbug
7 Dec 2013, 03:10 AM
O, so these are the numbers they invent now to put on the front page in an attempt to boost xmass shopping sales, and then revise lower in 3 months time when no one cares. Got it.

Of course if you factor all the discouraged workers who have given up looking, the picture is quite different.

Take away food stamps and you have a classic depression in the USofA
You believe in "Gold the Almighty" but you claim that all data is made up.

Hilarious stuff.

It's hard to take what you say seriously when you undermine your own credibility like that.
Edited by peter fraser, 7 Dec 2013, 09:27 AM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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miw
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goldbug
7 Dec 2013, 03:10 AM
O, so these are the numbers they invent now to put on the front page in an attempt to boost xmass shopping sales, and then revise lower in 3 months time when no one cares. Got it.

Of course if you factor all the discouraged workers who have given up looking, the picture is quite different.

Posted Image

Take away food stamps and you have a classic depression in the USofA
Take away government jobs and you have a classic depression in the US. Burn down the factories and you have a classic depression in the US. Wipe out their crops and they will starve. Sure. If you change something it would be different. It is what it is.

Shadowstats has been debunked many times. You can go ahead and believe it if you like, but if you make any decisions based on it, you will make mistakes and lose.

NFP came in at 203k and Sep and Oct were revised up slightly. Headline unemployment dropped from 7.3% to 7.0%. Also, average weekly hours worked and the participation rate crept up slightly. Average weekly earnings up 2% since the beginning of the year. Fed govt jobs dropped again.

Nothing too outstanding, but most things trending somewhat positive. Bill Gross weighed in saying he puts the odds of a December taper at 50/50.
Posted Image
Quote:
 
Employment Situation News Release

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-13-2315
8:30 a.m. (EST) Friday, December 6, 2013

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 • cpsinfo@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 • cesinfo@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- NOVEMBER 2013


The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total
nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care,
and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at
7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being
on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of
federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown.
(See tables A-1 and A-11.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.7 percent),
adult women (6.2 percent), teenagers (20.8 percent), whites (6.2 percent), blacks
(12.5 percent), and Hispanics (8.7 percent) changed little in November. The jobless
rate for Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year
earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks declined by 300,000 in November,
partially reflecting the return to work of federal employees on furlough in October.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially
unchanged at 4.1 million in November. These individuals accounted for 37.3 percent of
the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 718,000 over the
past 12 months. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force rose by 455,000 in November, after declining by 720,000 in
October. The labor force participation rate changed little (63.0 percent) in November.
Total employment as measured by the household survey increased by 818,000 over the
month, following a decline of 735,000 in the prior month. This over-the-month increase
in employment partly reflected the return to work of furloughed federal government
employees. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage point to 58.6
percent in November, reversing a decline of the same size in the prior month. (See
table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to
as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 331,000 to 7.7 million in November. These
individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because
they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

In November, 2.1 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by
409,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals
were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a
job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 762,000 discouraged workers in November, down
by 217,000 from a year ago. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers
are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available
for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in
November had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 203,000 in November. Job growth averaged
195,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In November, job gains occurred in
transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing. (See table B-1.)

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 31,000 in November, with gains
in couriers and messengers (+9,000), truck transportation (+8,000), warehousing and
storage (+5,000), and air transportation (+3,000).

Health care employment continued to increase over the month (+28,000). Job gains occurred
in home healthcare services (+12,000) and offices of physicians (+7,000), while nursing
care facilities lost jobs (-4,000). Job growth in health care has averaged 19,000 per
month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 27,000 in 2012.

In November, manufacturing added 27,000 jobs. Within the industry, job gains occurred in
food manufacturing (+8,000) and in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000).

In November, employment in professional and business services continued to trend up
(+35,000). Over the prior 12 months, the industry added an average of 55,000 jobs per
month.

Retail trade employment also continued to expand in November (+22,000). Within the
industry, job growth occurred in general merchandise stores (+14,000); in sporting
goods, hobby, book, and music stores (+12,000); and in automobile dealers (+7,000).
Over the prior 12 months, job growth in retail trade averaged 31,000 per month.

Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued
to trend up in November (+18,000). Job growth in this industry averaged 28,000 per month
over the prior 12 months.

Employment in construction continued to trend up in November (+17,000). Monthly job
gains in the industry averaged 15,000 over the prior 12 months.

Federal government employment continued to decline (-7,000) in November. Over the past
12 months, federal government employment has decreased by 92,000.

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, wholesale trade,
information, and financial activities, showed little or no change in November.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by
0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour
to 41.0 hours, and factory overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.5 hours. The average
workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls
edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose
by 4 cents to $24.15. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 48 cents,
or 2.0 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory
employees increased by 3 cents to $20.31. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +163,000
to +175,000, and the change for October was revised from +204,000 to +200,000. With
these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 8,000 higher
than previously reported.

_____________
The Employment Situation for December is scheduled to be released on Friday,
January 10, 2014, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |
| Household Survey Reference Period |
| |
|In the household survey, the reference period for November 2013 was the calendar week |
|that included the 5th of the month. Typically, the reference period for the household |
|survey is the calendar week that includes the 12th of the month. The November reference|
|week was moved up in 2013 due to the timing of the November and December holidays. In |
|accordance with usual practice, this change is made in November when necessary to allow|
|for sufficient time to process data and conduct survey operations. |
| |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |
| Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data |
| |
|In accordance with usual practice, The Employment Situation release for December 2013, |
|scheduled for January 10, 2014, will incorporate annual revisions in seasonally adjusted|
|unemployment and other labor force series from the household survey. Seasonally adjusted|
|data for the most recent 5 years are subject to revision. |
| |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |
| Upcoming Change to the Household Survey Tables |
| |
|Effective with the release of January 2014 data on February 7, 2014, household survey |
|table A-10 will include two new seasonally adjusted series for women age 55 and over— |
|the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate. These will replace the |
|series that are currently displayed for this group, which are not seasonally adjusted.|
| |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



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Edited by miw, 7 Dec 2013, 03:38 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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newjez
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miw
7 Dec 2013, 03:36 PM
Take away government jobs and you have a classic depression in the US. Burn down the factories and you have a classic depression in the US. Wipe out their crops and they will starve. Sure. If you change something it would be different. It is what it is.

Shadowstats has been debunked many times. You can go ahead and believe it if you like, but if you make any decisions based on it, you will make mistakes and lose.

NFP came in at 203k and Sep and Oct were revised up slightly. Headline unemployment dropped from 7.3% to 7.0%. Also, average weekly hours worked and the participation rate crept up slightly. Average weekly earnings up 2% since the beginning of the year. Fed govt jobs dropped again.

Nothing too outstanding, but most things trending somewhat positive. Bill Gross weighed in saying he puts the odds of a December taper at 50/50.
Posted Image
Goldbug, you can think these stats are wrong, or you can think what will these stats do to my investment. One way of thinking will make you more money.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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