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Strong November US ADP Jobs report; Private sector jobs up 215k in November
Topic Started: 5 Dec 2013, 01:31 AM (1,612 Views)
miw
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The November ADP private jobs report showed a private sector jobs increase of 215k in November, well above the expected 185k. In addition, the October number was revised up by 54k to 130k.

As a result, stock futures have tumbled and bond yields are up. 10yr is at 2.84%.

So I take it in the shorts on stocks, but probably get it all back and more in the strengthening of the USD. AUD is back down to 90.14c.

Full ADP report Here

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The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Dr Watson
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They're OK numbers.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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miw
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Dr Watson
5 Dec 2013, 08:15 AM
They're OK numbers.
Yeah. If NFP change can get above 200k and stay there a while it is actually a strong recovery.

If.................

New Home sales also came in stronger than expected last night. but if you average October and November it was fairly "meh".
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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miw
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Very strong initial jobless claims result. The 4-week average has very rarely dropped below 280k even in boom times.

10-yr back up to 2.86% after recovering quit a bit through yesterday.
Gold down $23
Stock futures slightly down, but it is a mix. Financials and anything that is leveraged to bond yields or the carry trade is down, while companies that are likely to benefit from increased orders or trade (like tech stocks and dry shipping) are mostly up.

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Initial Jobless claim dives 23k to 298K

Initial Jobless Claims: -23K to 298K vs. 322K consensus, 321K prior revised (316K prior week).
Continuing claims -21K to 2.74M.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Count du Monet
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Dr Watson
5 Dec 2013, 08:15 AM
They're OK numbers.
For the moment the FED has successfully goosed the US sharemarket and of the course the job numbers will look better. After all in the past 12 months the FED has expanded QE by 50%. How long does the positive effect last though? I'd look at the Euro share-market as the value buy because of this.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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goldbug
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Retail outlets putting on extra staff for x-mass. The jobs will vanish come January
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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miw
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goldbug
6 Dec 2013, 05:39 AM
Retail outlets putting on extra staff for x-mass. The jobs will vanish come January
Nope. That is exactly what it is not. These are seasonally-adjusted numbers.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Perthite
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miw
5 Dec 2013, 07:08 PM
Yeah. If NFP change can get above 200k and stay there a while it is actually a strong recovery.

If.................

New Home sales also came in stronger than expected last night. but if you average October and November it was fairly "meh".
I thought they required around 180,000 a month just to cope with their expanding workforce.
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miw
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Perthite
6 Dec 2013, 05:51 PM
I thought they required around 180,000 a month just to cope with their expanding workforce.
I think the number is more like 150-160k, but somewhere around there, yes. But if you look at the historical graphs, any time where it is consistently above 200k, unemployment will be falling reasonably fast.

Edit: Of course those numbers (180k or whatever) are for the Non-farm payrolls, not the ADP job report which is for private payrolls only and doesn't include govt jobs. Lately, the change in govt jobs has mostly been slightly negative to flat, so the distinction is not huge at the moment. We'll get the full NFP report for November tonight.
Edited by miw, 6 Dec 2013, 07:03 PM.
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miw
6 Dec 2013, 06:13 PM
I think the number is more like 150-160k, but somewhere around there, yes. But if you look at the historical graphs, any time where it is consistently above 200k, unemployment will be falling reasonably fast.

Edit: Of course those numbers (180k or whatever) are for the Non-farm payrolls, not the ADP job report which is for private payrolls only and doesn't include govt jobs. Lately, the change in govt jobs has mostly been slightly negative to flat, so the distinction is not huge at the moment. We'll get the full NFP report for November tonight.
Ok. So stay out of stocks....

They seem to tank on good news these days.
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