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Australian House Prices Could Be About To Explode - NAB; Prices are currently way below household borrowing capacity, so no stretched conditions or bubble here
Topic Started: 3 Dec 2013, 08:36 AM (4,811 Views)
CSI
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I expect property to at least double between now and 2030.

From the way they are carrying on I think the bulls here are pretty much expecting it to double between now and 2020.
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stinkbug
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CSI
3 Dec 2013, 11:58 AM

From the way they are carrying on I think the bulls here are pretty much expecting it to double between now and 2020.
I highly doubt the properties I own will double between now and 2020. If by some crazy circumstance they do, I will likely sell down some of the portfolio to get ready for the inevitable drop, so I can buy back in cheaply.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Veritas
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Mike
3 Dec 2013, 11:52 AM


So property is more affordable now then in 1990.

Veritas needs to read this. Another bear myth destroyed. This is something Bulls have been trying to explain for sometime to bears.

Perhaps this few year window is the best time to buy a property in a 40-50 year cycle. The most affordable since 1990 (23 years) with prices rising and interest rates certain to rise some time in the next few years. Property may not be this affordable again for decades to come. Is that a risk worth taking, missing the most affordable period to buy a home in decades and perhaps for decades to come.
Mortgages are more affordable. Based on Interest rates. Which rise as well as fall.

Mike, apart from WA FTBS are MIA. Why?

Something to do with this maybe?

Posted Image

Posted Image

Terry is making a buy now or miss out argument. Shoe salesman say buy shoes shock!!!!
Edited by Veritas, 3 Dec 2013, 01:08 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Trojan
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stinkbug
3 Dec 2013, 12:31 PM
I highly doubt the properties I own will double between now and 2020. If by some crazy circumstance they do, I will likely sell down some of the portfolio to get ready for the inevitable drop, so I can buy back in cheaply.
+1 likewise I highly doubt it will double between now and 2020.
Sounds like CSI made up a strawman argument.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Count du Monet
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Fools! The Count has told you, flat until the end of the decade. Credit booms like that of the first decade are rare events, not cyclic.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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newjez
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stinkbug
3 Dec 2013, 10:28 AM
It's still too soon, the GFC is still in peoples' minds. In 10 years it will all be a bad memory, and people will forget the lessons.

I expect property to at least double between now and 2030.
Christ I would hope so. That is a very conservative view. I'd expect it to double in 10 - 12 years, not 16.
Edited by newjez, 3 Dec 2013, 04:51 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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newjez
3 Dec 2013, 04:49 PM
stinkbug
3 Dec 2013, 10:28 AM
It's still too soon, the GFC is still in peoples' minds. In 10 years it will all be a bad memory, and people will forget the lessons.

I expect property to at least double between now and 2030.
Christ I would hope so. That is a very conservative view. I'd expect it to double in 10 - 12 years, not 16.
I doubt that the world will duplicate the gains in house prices that we saw over the last 20 years. It's a different scenario now. We don't have a sudden loosening of credit rationing, a drop in interest rates from around 16%, and a mining boom to push it to the limit anymore.

That all came together to make a pefect housing storm - do you see that happening again in our lifetimes?

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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mel
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All extremely valid points, Peter. I'd be curious to hear miw's take on the Chinese market moving forward.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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newjez
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peter fraser
3 Dec 2013, 05:06 PM
I doubt that the world will duplicate the gains in house prices that we saw over the last 20 years. It's a different scenario now. We don't have a sudden loosening of credit rationing, a drop in interest rates from around 16%, and a mining boom to push it to the limit anymore.

That all came together to make a pefect housing storm - do you see that happening again in our lifetimes?
I don't think it is inconceivable that house prices could double between 2017 and 2020. Prices have been subdued for many years. The US will have raised rates and may be lowering them, and we will see that the world hasn't ended. The gfc will be ten years behind us. The new FHB's will be learning it in their economic history classes. If there is to be another boom, and I would be surprised if there isn't, I don't see why it wouldn't be here. You would be foolish if you weren't at least thinking about buying a house by 2015 - 2016. Long range I know, but it is likely.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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mel
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newjez
3 Dec 2013, 05:18 PM
I don't think it is inconceivable that house prices could double between 2017 and 2020. Prices have been subdued for many years. The US will have raised rates and may be lowering them, and we will see that the world hasn't ended. The gfc will be ten years behind us. The new FHB's will be learning it in their economic history classes. If there is to be another boom, and I would be surprised if there isn't, I don't see why it wouldn't be here. You would be foolish if you weren't at least thinking about buying a house by 2015 - 2016. Long range I know, but it is likely.
The wildcard (if there is one) will be new arrivals with more money than the existing population.

you know - guys like yourself who intend on coming here with all your bloody money pushing up the prices in W.A.
:)
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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