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Australian Property Chart of Shame - The Epic Failure of the Oz Housing Bears is Complete
Topic Started: 28 Nov 2013, 10:33 PM (27,068 Views)
Rastus2
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Shadow
20 May 2015, 12:00 AM
Gold Coast? I doubt any GHPC bulls advised people to buy there.

I don't remember it ever being discussed. With only 2% of Australia's population, why would GC even be mentioned?

Most of the silly 40% crash predictions were based around Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

Beyond those cities, there wasn't much discussion.
6th largest city in Australia. if criteria is % of population it qualified Discussion.

Regardless of your opinion, or memory, many spruikers were claiming boom times were ahead for gc as well as the rest of Australia. I beliefe just recently frank castle was posting on goldcoast.

I seem to remember quite a bit of discussion about perth, gc, and rockhampton as well as the cities you cited, however since gc was my location, i paid attention to those posts. I also remember you dismissing the gc when I pointed out the crash. I don't mind, you have your focus, i have mine, we can all be eggspurts in our local area.

Perhaps most of the silly crash predictions were the other cities, however gc got its predicted crash... even if it was only for the top tier properties. It got pretty ugly here, some areas are only now recovering, a few bounced back well.


2007 buyer sold at a 50% loss in 2011.

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/blog.aspx?blogentryid=779177&showcomments=true


More

http://www.ibtimes.com.au/australias-property-crash-gold-coast-homes-selling-50-discount-1316753

More

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/gold-coast-lures-bargain-hunters-20130904-2t6az.html
Edited by Rastus2, 20 May 2015, 12:31 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Shadow
28 Nov 2013, 10:33 PM
I have charted Australian house prices over the past decade or so, along with a few choice quotes from the permabear doomsayers.

Posted Image

If anyone can think of any other famous gloomsters and their quotes, post them below and I'll update the chart (if I can find room).
My house in Mount lawley was bought in 1992 for $210,000, today it is worth maybe $2m.

Mom and dad bought a house in Crawford road Inglewood for $56,000 in 1987, today it is north of $1m.

Dad bought a condition purchase farm at Bakers hill for about $3,000.

Today it is worth $1.2m to $1.5m.

He added 3 more farms next door, these are great hedges against inflation but have fuck all yield.

Peter

To be very fair Shadow, great chart, but what you are actually seeing is the decline of the Australian dollars purchasing power over time.

The "real" asset goes up in nominal terms, the other thing you are not showing is the very expensive and continuous improvements done to those properties.

This farm is near Dads farm but is selling in the $2m range, but the improvements on this farm are far more costly than dads farm.
So did the farm go up after the owner spent say $500,000 on it??


http://www.realestate.com.au/property-other-wa-woottating-7658731


The house that sells for record price, but had a $1m extension, like the ones common in Mount Lawley???

Your chart is an incomplete guide to a trend of devaluation of the purchasing power of the Australian dollar.



Edited by Foxy, 20 May 2015, 12:34 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
20 May 2015, 12:24 AM
Perhaps most of the silly crash predictions were the other cities, however gc got its predicted crash
GC crashes regularly. It's pretty volatile. It doesn't take much skill to predict a GC crash as there's always going to be one coming along every decade or so.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

foxbat
20 May 2015, 12:26 AM
He added 3 more farms next door, these are great hedges against inflation but have fuck all yield.
Does anything have yield in your world?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Blondie girl
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Don't Buy Now
19 May 2015, 08:49 PM
This chart contains slander!

Forum administrator, I insist this be taken down before I need resort to further measures.

Don't Buy Now!
Side profiles is best for camera poses, but learn to smile please.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Shadow
20 May 2015, 12:27 AM
Does anything have yield in your world?
Yes.

But it is work in progress.

And remember we all pay tax and live so you know the answer.

Peter

The only time a farmer has money in his pocket is the day the farm settles.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Rastus2
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Shadow
20 May 2015, 12:26 AM
GC crashes regularly. It's pretty volatile. It doesn't take much skill to predict a GC crash as there's always going to be one coming along every decade or so.
Really, got a chart showing 50% crashes every decade or so ? I would be interested to see that. Here was me thinking that predicting a crash correctly on this forum was a rare event here but it turns out to not require much skill :D it's just that not many other posters thought to predict it, and many rubbished the prediction.


Had a quick search for gold coast in post search tool... maxed out at 20 pages... as did adelaide ... i would say gold coast has been discussed heaps here, you just didn't notice, or forgot.

When I first worked on the goldcoast it had not gone through a crash, but prices were stagnant for about 9 years... i bought just as it rose and sold 3 years later for 80% profit (edit.. forgot how lucky that rise was).. luck more than skill.

Anyway, looking forward to that chart...
Edited by Rastus2, 20 May 2015, 07:28 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Ex BP Golly
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Pig Iron
28 Nov 2013, 11:30 PM
damning is all you can say.

you wont see any of them admitting to it though. not a shred of shame in them.
TIMMY is still with us!

Username Started Using On .Stopped Using On
Pig Iron 4 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM . In Use Now
timmy 26 Mar 2012, 11:13 AM 4 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Trollie
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Ex BP Golly
20 May 2015, 07:59 AM
Pig Iron
28 Nov 2013, 11:30 PM
damning is all you can say.

you wont see any of them admitting to it though. not a shred of shame in them.
TIMMY is still with us!

UsernameStarted Using On.Stopped Using On
Pig Iron4 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM. In Use Now
timmy26 Mar 2012, 11:13 AM4 Jun 2013, 11:08 PM
Did you kiss and make up?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
20 May 2015, 12:42 AM
Really, got a chart showing 50% crashes every decade or so ? I would be interested to see that.
GC has never had a 50% crash, although some individual properties may have fallen by that much.

There were ~20% falls in the early 80s and early 90s, and then obviously the most recent fall in the 2000s... every decade or so. It's a volatile market.

Posted Image
Attached to this post:
Attachments: Gold_Coast_30_Year_Cycle.jpg (175.64 KB)
Edited by Shadow, 20 May 2015, 11:34 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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