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Australian Property Chart of Shame - The Epic Failure of the Oz Housing Bears is Complete
Topic Started: 28 Nov 2013, 10:33 PM (27,069 Views)
Don't Buy Now
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Shadow
11 Nov 2014, 12:44 PM
Epic Chart of Shame updated with today's ABS house price data. Just how badly have the silly bears failed?

Posted Image
This chart contains slander!

Forum administrator, I insist this be taken down before I need resort to further measures.

Don't Buy Now!
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stinkbug
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Quotes are slander?

This just gets better and better! :lol
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Rastus2
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That is quite a funny chart... :D

yup, imagine those silly property bears missing out on an EPIC almost doubling of their property returns in just 15 short years *

* - (not accounting for any expenses such as rates, insurance, building/landlords insurance, repairs, gap between rent, interest and tax break etc etc etc).. past performance is no guarantee of future returns.


What silly bears eh ?




lol, I bet they did not even consider doing sofisticated IP structures and just bought some of the most boring blue chip shares on the ASX.. .idiots


https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BHP.AX&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=


oh.. BHP went x 3 in that time, even with the GFC and 'post mining boom crash' ..


Well perhaps they just put it on another dud, boring blue chip ASX company... RIO...

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RIO.AX&t=my

oh... RIO went up x 2 also in that time... geez

ok, well what about if they were just simple minded and went with Woolworths..

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WOW.AX&t=my

Dang... x 2.


Well perhaps they just bought some bank shares... say ANZ

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ANZ.AX&t=my

oh... even those doubled.



My point ?

Sure, Property did ok... by the same mesaure, so did many ASX stocks ... if people had money to invest (or borrowed to invest), they did not have to miss out on a boom just because they had no faith in the property sector.

None of those shares listed cost a cent in rates, repairs, insurance or wear/tear.... their returns were also often fully franked...





Don't Buy Now
19 May 2015, 08:49 PM
This chart contains slander!

Forum administrator, I insist this be taken down before I need resort to further measures.

Don't Buy Now!
lol, give it a rest.

Quotes are quotes, we all post stuff that is either wrong, poorly worded, taken out of context, or simply 'cut and paste' by someone who has no alternative way to win an argument

... the chart is quite funny
Edited by Rastus2, 19 May 2015, 10:03 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Aussie! Aussie! Aussie! Oy! Oy! Oy! Keep going up baby! the higher the prices the bigger the fall! :lol
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Shadow
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Rastus2
19 May 2015, 09:47 PM
yup, imagine those silly property bears missing out on an EPIC almost doubling of their property returns in just 15 short years *

What silly bears eh ?
Actually the chart shows prices more than doubling over 13 years from 2001 to 2014.

You can't see the red line in 2001 because Jenman's big head is in the way, but it's down around 55 on the y-axis.

But I remember you bears on GHPC used to gloat about an imminent 40% crash from 2007-2008 levels.

Then when prices soared to new highs by 2010, the 40% crash was supposedly going to be from 2010 levels.

Then when the crash still didn't happen the bears started gloating about a 'slow melt' instead.

Then when nominal prices stopped 'melting' the bears claimed prices would still fall in 'real terms' and gloated about that instead.

And now that prices are still rising strongly, in both real and nominal terms, the only thing left for the bears to do is 'gloat' because prices aren't doubling quite as fast as before.

Poor bears... how far you've fallen. :lol
Edited by Shadow, 19 May 2015, 11:47 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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zaph
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Don't Buy Now
19 May 2015, 08:49 PM
This chart contains slander!

Forum administrator, I insist this be taken down before I need resort to further measures.

Don't Buy Now!
Goodie...

Another threat of legal action. I love these ones.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
19 May 2015, 11:42 PM
LOL, I remember you bears on GHPC used to gloat about an imminent 40% crash from 2007-2008 levels.

Then when prices soared to new highs by 2010, the 40% crash was supposedly going to be from 2010 levels.

Then when the crash still didn't happen the bears started gloating about a 'slow melt' instead.

Then when nominal prices stopped 'melting' the bears claimed prices would still fall in 'real terms' and gloated about that instead.

And now that prices are still rising strongly, in both real and nominal terms, the only thing left for the bears to do is 'gloat' because prices aren't doubling quite as fast as before.

Poor bears... how far you've fallen. :lol
Yup, i remember those days well.

turned out, some of us bears were correct :D

Any poor reader who followed the bulls advice on the property boom to come, buy now or forever miss out, etc etc and bought at the gold coast around 2007/2008 were punished by the downturn.

I know a couple of guys at work who bought then and are still underwater.

Still, lots of expert bulls on this forum claiming to know gold coast better than us silly bears who lived nearby and talked to buyers and sellers :D

We purchased a nice property in a very nice area to live in late 2013 that we never could have afforded in 2007/2008.
Edited by Rastus2, 19 May 2015, 11:53 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
19 May 2015, 11:50 PM
Any poor reader who followed the bulls advice on the property boom to come, buy now or forever miss out, etc etc and bought at the gold coast around 2007/2008 were punished by the downturn.
Gold Coast? I doubt any GHPC bulls advised people to buy there.

I don't remember it ever being discussed. With only 2% of Australia's population, why would GC even be mentioned?

Most of the silly 40% crash predictions were based around Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

Beyond those cities, there wasn't much discussion.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
19 May 2015, 11:42 PM
Actually the chart shows prices more than doubling over 13 years from 2001 to 2014.

You can't see the red line in 2001 because Jenman's big head is in the way, but it's down around 55 on the y-axis.

But I remember you bears on GHPC used to gloat about an imminent 40% crash from 2007-2008 levels.

Then when prices soared to new highs by 2010, the 40% crash was supposedly going to be from 2010 levels.

Then when the crash still didn't happen the bears started gloating about a 'slow melt' instead.

Then when nominal prices stopped 'melting' the bears claimed prices would still fall in 'real terms' and gloated about that instead.

And now that prices are still rising strongly, in both real and nominal terms, the only thing left for the bears to do is 'gloat' because prices aren't doubling quite as fast as before.

Poor bears... how far you've fallen. :lol
Oh, you edited the post..

Ok.

Yes, i initially thought the chart was for 15 years but revised the post when I noticed a big head in the way so assumed it was actually from 2003, not 2001.
I forgot to change the 15 year text, but did adjust all of the share rises..


If we do make it the 13 years, the the property may have done better than double, but those companies were still far better off.. RIO got close to x 5 rise .
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
20 May 2015, 12:13 AM
RIO got close to x 5 rise
The winning lotto ticket got an X10,000,000 return on investment.

But most people aren't lucky enough to pick the right lotto numbers or the right individual company to buy shares in.

Plenty of people doing well from property though.

Roughly two thirds of the population own a home.

How many people own enough RIO shares to have made a significant profit?
Edited by Shadow, 20 May 2015, 12:23 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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