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Australian Property Chart of Shame - The Epic Failure of the Oz Housing Bears is Complete
Topic Started: 28 Nov 2013, 10:33 PM (27,075 Views)
Count du Monet
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mel
29 Nov 2013, 07:14 AM
You are forgetting the yield. If you put a 200K deposit on a cash neutral IP ten years ago, how would it measure up?
After costs?
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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mel
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Count du Monet
29 Nov 2013, 07:16 AM
After costs?
Absolutely, Count. Costs on both sides. Property being neutral with 200K down. Gold in AUD.

The only problem is we could cherry pick properties that would have kicked golds arse and vice versa so it would be a pointless exercise :oo:
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Bardon
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I am waiting for an inflation adjusted English cricket performance apologist to appear.
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

goldbug
29 Nov 2013, 07:03 AM
I can only imagine the cherry picking that went into that chart. Do one for QLD Shadow, one for SYD as well. Then re-do the one above adjusted for inflation.
Well that would be cherry picking you wanker :re:


Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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Count du Monet
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mel
29 Nov 2013, 07:24 AM
Absolutely, Count. Costs on both sides. Property being neutral with 200K down. Gold in AUD.

The only problem is we could cherry pick properties that would have kicked golds arse and vice versa so it would be a pointless exercise :oo:
Historically gold is a long term neutral. It's value is its high liquidity. This can beat that shares on bad day when your broker won't take your calls.

In the long run gold can only "make money" by being loaned for a return, the but the central banks keep that stitched up. The central banks loan gold at the libor plus the gold lease rate.

But no capital growth for general property 2010 to 2020. And this measured in an AUD that might be 30 Euro cents in 2020.
Edited by Count du Monet, 29 Nov 2013, 08:10 AM.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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mel
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Count du Monet
29 Nov 2013, 08:10 AM
Historically gold is a long term neutral. It's value is its high liquidity.
Absolutely agree with that. Another benefit is not having to over commit yourself.

I think gold can be a great way to save some money for someone who owns an unencumbered property .
Edited by mel, 29 Nov 2013, 08:20 AM.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Dr Watson
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themoops
29 Nov 2013, 06:59 AM
You're like one of those psychos who has lots of pictures up on his wall of his enemies, but people who he's really in love with.

She's not obsessed with them at all, is she?
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Count du Monet
29 Nov 2013, 08:10 AM
But no capital growth for general property 2010 to 2020
We've already had capital growth between 2010 and 2013, so your prediction has failed straight out of the blocks.

But at least you seem to be moderating your views. Your last prediction was for a 40% crash by June 2010. How did that one work out for you?

I didn't put your prediction on the chart because you're not very important or influential. I also left off Philip Soos, because despite the hilarity of his constant crash spruiking, he's just a uni student and still pretty young and naive. He will more than likely change his doomster outlook as he matures and develops the capacity to think more deeply about things.

The people I included on the chart at all at least old and mature enough to know better.

I briefly considered putting up our old friend Foundation's classic prediction that prices would soon fall back to 2005 'slump' levels, but Foundation is kind of irrelevant now having vanished to his bear cave never to be seen again after all his gloomy GHPC predictions failed so badly.
Bardon
29 Nov 2013, 06:38 AM
Great chart Shadow, I have taken the liberty of posting it elsewhere and reminded some of the bearish commentators that they are in good company!
Cool - it needs to be spread far and wide!

Quote:
 
I don't suppose you could knock one up that shows the various stages of the shown trend with the bearish emotional response to each change of direction. You know like the one that the bulls post that shows the bull trap, dead cat bounce and all that stuff?
I'll see what I can do...
Edited by Shadow, 29 Nov 2013, 09:22 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Strindberg
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Shadow
29 Nov 2013, 09:17 AM
The people I included on the chart at all at least old and mature enough to know better.
You can add Ross Gittins, he is definitely old enough for that category.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/06/28/1088392600154.html
Quote:
 
June 29, 2004

Prepare for a property crunch

There's little doubt the cycle's correction phase will involve big falls in house and apartment prices, and I expect thousands of negatively geared investors to do a lot of dough.

Maybe also add Chris Vedelago too.
http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/blogs/domain-investor-centre-blog/a-rate-cut-wont-rescue-the-market-20111026-1mjra.html
Quote:
 
A rate cut won't rescue the market
October 27, 2011 - 9:22AM
Australia's property market is adrift and slowly sinking.

Too many failed property forum crash predictors to list. Obvious ones are Wulfgar/Count de Money, earthsta, Foundation, DadofSam, Hired Goon, Tinpusher, Sproket, raveswei. Just a matter of time before the current doomers like the moops and kinetoscope join them.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Dr Watson
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Strindberg
29 Nov 2013, 09:48 AM
You can add Ross Gittins, he is definitely old enough for that category.
Errrr John ... Gittins IS on the chart.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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