I doubt that anyone is trying to discredit the report. In a nation that has an average of 10.7% homes unoccupied at any time the report seems about normal. It's just not an extraordinary result pointing to anything.
It's just not an extraordinary result pointing to anything.
Seems extraordinary enough to to the author of the article, but understandably, you feel different. You're only here to spruik the property market and so you'll attack anything that threatens the illusion of market sustainability. FHB data will be wrong, water usage data will be considered useless. Everything that opposes spruik will be discredited. And if it can't be discredited, the perception of it will be changed.
Well, you'll at least make the attempt, won't you pete?
Water usage data is just another form of data you need to discredit in order to hype the market.
Lets see your american reports that validate empty australian properties. It should still add up to more than zero litres.
But please, continue your charade, its getting more amazing with every water saving detail.
using water data to detect vacant homes has been debunked many times.
it has a large margin for error which isn't accounted for to make the results more spectacular and draw in suckers like yourself.
sell your house now if you think there will be a significant crash and make a fortune. i suspect you will turn out just like crazy ted though, living in your brothers wood shed divorced and raging on APF under many socks.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Seems extraordinary enough to to the author of the article, but understandably, you feel different. You're only here to spruik the property market and so you'll attack anything that threatens the illusion of market sustainability. FHB data will be wrong, water usage data will be considered useless. Everything that opposes spruik will be discredited. And if it can't be discredited, the perception of it will be changed.
Well, you'll at least make the attempt, won't you pete?
Yes dave I believe that in the long term the value of houses will rise although from time to time there will be cyclical downturns. I'm not sure what you believe for the long term because you never actually articulate that, you only jump on any post from anyone that doesn't comply with the "houses are gonna crash" narrative. You don't say whether you believe that they will eventually bounce back or whether they will simply keep on reducing in value until they reach zero.
I do recall you saying that prices will probably rise in the short term and then fall in a few years, which is probably close to the view that many bulls hold, yet you consider yourself a bear.
Whenever you get a group of people together you will find a range of views. Assuming one point of view and then trying to bludgeon everyone else into submitting to that POV won't work, although I see that you are giving it a good go. If you had a substantial case you would be able to articulate it rather that post wah wah wah as a reply.
You mentioned that macrobusiness was the source of good information which led you to convert your money into USD which has turned out to be a winner for you - well good for you, but we also discussed that here with you and we also mostly agreed that in all probability it would work to your advantage.
Essentially there isn't a lot of difference between what I expect and what MB expects although DLS does expect iron ore prices to fall further than we do here, which will push down the AUD and maintain a similar income, but with a reduced foreign exchange value. That will make Australians a little less wealthy by international comparison but life won't change much for most people. Fuel prices will rise, luxury goods and electronics will rise, but we will manage fine.
I don't have access to the private members issue at MB but behind the language you will find Leith predicting price rises in Sydney, probably neutral on Melbourne, slightly bullish on Brisbane and a little negative in the mid term for Perth. That is quite close to my view, I just express myself in a more positive way.
I'm sorry that I don't believe that the world is stuffed to make you happy, but I just don't. I don't ask you to believe that the world is all rosy because that's not my view either and in any case I don't expect others to agree with me.
If you want a forum where everyone is certain that the world will end then you could try MB, but only some of the commenters believe that, Leith and DLS don't believe that. But don't take my word, why don't you ask them.
You're too late for the other all bear forums like bubblepedia because they all fell apart when the bulls left. Trying to convert this forum to an all bear forum would only turn this forum into another internet wasteland - again don't take my word for it, ask the others who were at bubblepedia about their experience.
If you were serious about this vacancy rate based on water usage you would do some analysis on the area surveyed and maybe compare it with an area full of holiday homes where you would expect high vacancy rates, and then other suburbs in other Australian cities. That should all be available on Quickstats if you look for it.
For a change, rather than acting like an angry drunk, show us what you are capable of and do some genuine analysis so that we can all review it.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
But please, continue your charade, its getting more amazing with every water saving detail.
If the benchmark was zero litres, I wouldn't have a problem with it as a measurement.
Even if they made it 5 litres a day to allow for leaking taps, it's a fair assumption. But 50 litres is just ridiculous for an empty house. Why don't we deregister every car that that does less than 7,000km a year on the assumption that it's undriven? After all, the average car does about 22,000km/year, nobody could be using it at less than 1/3rd of average usage...
Property speculation is a type of gambling... But everyone knows that in gambling, the house always wins in the end.
If the benchmark was zero litres, I wouldn't have a problem with it as a measurement.
Even if they made it 5 litres a day to allow for leaking taps, it's a fair assumption. But 50 litres is just ridiculous for an empty house. Why don't we deregister every car that that does less than 7,000km a year on the assumption that it's undriven? After all, the average car does about 22,000km/year, nobody could be using it at less than 1/3rd of average usage...
Is it 50 litres per day?
Average household usage in Brisbane I believe is 140 litres per day - and the average household is two adults and two children, so every unit and house with a single resident would probably be less than 50 litres per day.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Average household usage in Brisbane I believe is 140 litres per day - and the average household is two adults and two children, so every unit and house with a single resident would probably be less than 50 litres per day.
I don't think that's correct.
Average usage in Brisbane is around 400l a day according to the graph on my water bill.
Average household usage in Brisbane I believe is 140 litres per day - and the average household is two adults and two children, so every unit and house with a single resident would probably be less than 50 litres per day.
The OP stated:
Quote:
The report defines vacant properties as using less than 50 litres of water a day on average over 12 months. Single person homes average 177 litres per day. Only 2% of Melbournians have a water tank plumbed into the house.
So really, less than 30% of mean usage for a single person or so is considered empty. I doubt the bell curve is that bunched up around mean.
It's just a meaningless statistic.
Property speculation is a type of gambling... But everyone knows that in gambling, the house always wins in the end.
Not sure about Melbourne, but in Brisbane only the newest apartments have individual meters per unit. Even stuff from the early 2000s have a single meter for the whole block and divide the bill according to entitlement. So the statistic probably won't cover many units.
To my mind, something that averages 50l/day over a year could not be said to have been vacant all year. But it probably wasn't occupied all year either.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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