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Increasing numbers of Sydney property investors selling up, starting to think market may be at top; Some investors are beginning to question if this current market growth is sustainable
Topic Started: 22 Nov 2013, 11:35 AM (4,157 Views)
Elastic
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Regardless of the number of FHBs, the % of investors in Sydney is about 50% so they are crowding out OOs.
I tend to think that with investors dominating the Sydney market, they are very interest rate sensitive so the price rises may hit a limit at which the yields no longer make sense to buy.
It may then take more rate cuts before the market can take another leg up.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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dave
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Elastic
22 Nov 2013, 04:54 PM
Regardless of the number of FHBs, the % of investors in Sydney is about 50% so they are crowding out OOs.
I tend to think that with investors dominating the Sydney market, they are very interest rate sensitive so the price rises may hit a limit at which the yields no longer make sense to buy.
It may then take more rate cuts before the market can take another leg up.
Don't worry, abbot is going to reboot the mining boom.
Oh wait...
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Shadow
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Elastic
22 Nov 2013, 04:54 PM
Regardless of the number of FHBs, the % of investors in Sydney is about 50% so they are crowding out OOs.
I don't think it's as high as this in reality.

There are a lot of FHBs buying off-the-plan, but they won't show up in the stats until project completion.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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miw
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Elastic
22 Nov 2013, 04:54 PM
Regardless of the number of FHBs, the % of investors in Sydney is about 50% so they are crowding out OOs.
Not if it is just investors selling to investors. In that case the nett investor demand is zero.

Once again, it matters who takes both sides of the transaction.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Elastic
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I'm not arguing about the % of FHBs but I've seen several articles recently where they have suggested investors are making up 50% of the current market in Sydney. I'll track them down when I have some time.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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dave
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Shadow
22 Nov 2013, 05:03 PM
I don't think it's as high as this in reality.

There are a lot of FHBs buying off-the-plan, but they won't show up in the stats until project completion.
I missed you margaret, hows my favourite set of oversized chompers going today?
miw
22 Nov 2013, 05:06 PM
Not if it is just investors selling to investors. In that case the nett investor demand is zero.

Once again, it matters who takes both sides of the transaction.
You'd think if they really wanted to know, they'd find out right?
How hard is it to add a box?
Edited by dave, 22 Nov 2013, 05:10 PM.
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themoops
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miw
22 Nov 2013, 04:42 PM
Au contraire it does matter a lot who they are selling to.

If they are just selling to other investors, then there is an equal number of investors who think it is time to be getting in and the nett investor sentiment is flat. Prices will likely continue to rise until sentiment drops.

On the other hand, if a fair whack of the investors are cashing out and selling to FHBs, then investor sentiment will be acting as a brake on price rises. Every time the prices get pushed up a little bit more by FHBs, more investors will look at the gains they already have and the softening rental market and call it a day. It's the other side of the coin from the floor that investors seem to put on the market for low-end housing. It's a bit like a buffered solution.
But the article doesn't really try to make any strong assertions as to where the market is heading, the point of the article is to state that some people think the market has topped.

So therefore it doesn't matter, but it might matter to you.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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miw
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themoops
22 Nov 2013, 05:24 PM
But the article doesn't really try to make any strong assertions as to where the market is heading, the point of the article is to state that some people think the market has topped.

So therefore it doesn't matter, but it might matter to you.
There are always some people who think the market has topped.

Unless there is some indication as to how many, the whole article is pointless. They could just as correctly say that some people think the market will go up another 30% and it would be just as pointless.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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dave
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miw
22 Nov 2013, 06:30 PM
There are always some people who think the market has topped.

Unless there is some indication as to how many, the whole article is pointless. They could just as correctly say that some people think the market will go up another 30% and it would be just as pointless.
All articles that fail to cheer on the australian property market are essentially pointless, aren't they?
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themoops
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miw
22 Nov 2013, 06:30 PM
There are always some people who think the market has topped.

Unless there is some indication as to how many, the whole article is pointless. They could just as correctly say that some people think the market will go up another 30% and it would be just as pointless.
It's not pointless because the MSM maintains sentiment.

They can say anything they want and the people would follow.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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