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Daily Iron Ore Price, Commodities and Precious Metals Update - November 2013
Topic Started: 4 Nov 2013, 01:05 PM (12,000 Views)
Perthite
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Headline says it all really.

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/motley/8761043/als-limited-mining-services-bloodbath-continues
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Perthite
25 Nov 2013, 06:11 PM
it's not about metal pricing.

omg so misleading!!
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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doubleview
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Pig Iron
25 Nov 2013, 07:39 PM
it's not about metal pricing.

omg so misleading!!
Get ya hand off it!

Monos's says it all:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/11/19/construction-and-engineering/monadelphous-flags-revenue-drop

Best management in the sector and cash to debt of 3 or 4 times!

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Perthite
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Pig Iron
25 Nov 2013, 07:39 PM
it's not about metal pricing.

omg so misleading!!
??
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 25-November-13

Posted Image

China’s thermal coal demand to rise

According to China National Coal Association, China’s annual coal
consumption is expected to increase from 3,520Mt in 2012 to
4,800Mt in 2020 (4.0% CAGR). China’s domestic coal power is also
anticipated to account for more than 60% of China’s total energy.
The path of Chinese coal imports depends on domestic supply,
which is expected to rise solidly in central and western provinces.

Base metals and crude oil benchmarks finished mostly lower, while
gold futures advanced. US WTI crude oil declined after Iran agreed to
limit its nuclear program in return for relief from sanctions over the
next six months. While these measures should support Iran’s crude
oil exports, the 1mb/d crude oil export cap still remains in place. Iron
ore remained unchanged at USD136.50/t (CFR China).

A consortium of Chinese companies led by Chinalco, China’s stateowned
aluminium producer, has pulled out of the race to acquire
Glencore Xstrata’s 450ktpa Las Bambas copper project in Peru. This
could pave the way for a Chinese consortium of companies led by
Minmetals to acquire the copper project.

According to All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, gold
premiums in India will climb to record highs in coming weeks due to
a surge in gold demand for weddings in January and February.
India’s government and central bank have implemented a number of
measures to curb gold imports this year in an attempt to contain a
record current account deficit and a weakening currency.

According to the Custom Committee of Russia, Russia’s coal exports
from January to September have lifted 12.7% y/y to 105Mt.

Beach Energy expects domestic gas prices to rise in Eastern
Australia due to linkages with oil prices and ongoing LNG export
ventures. The company also forecasts its oil production to lift 10-
15% to 8.7-9.3mmboe in FY14
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Gas price spike to last a decade: Beach Energy

November 26, 2013 - 5:00PM
Angela Macdonald-Smith

Beach Energy managing director Reg Nelson has predicted a sustained spike in natural gas prices in the eastern states lasting as long as a decade due to the “supply crunch” affecting the market.

Mr Nelson said wholesale prices had already risen to the widely forecast $7-$9 per gigajoule, and said they could rise to more than $10 for short-term contracts given the tightest period in the market would only occur in 2017.

“It is a price spike, and it’s going to be here for quite some time,” Mr Nelson said ahead of a investor briefing by the oil and gas company in Sydney.

“The best thing for everyone is really to see that price as the incentive to explore and develop and to provide the competition that will ultimately ensure security of supply.”

How long the price spike will last depends on how quickly supply can be brought to market, and particularly New South Wales, where it is needed most, Mr Nelson said.

Beach is well placed to benefit from what it calls the “new gas pricing paradigm”, where domestic gas prices in eastern Australia are increasingly linked to oil prices, and driven by LNG export volumes from Queensland.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/gas-price-spike-to-last-a-decade-beach-energy-20131126-2y7se.html
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 27-November-13

Posted Image

US crude oil output at 24-year high

US crude inventories rose 2.95mmbbl to 391.4mmbbl in the week
ending 22 November, well above forecasts of a 0.42mmbbl increase.
US oil production increased marginally to a 24-year high of
8.019mb/d, while imports declined 1.8% to 7.718mb/d. The US
refinery utilisation rate increased from 88.6% to 89.4%, above
expectations of 88.9%.

Commodity prices retreated as the US dollar strengthened on
concern the US Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus sooner than
markets are expecting after the University of Michigan consumer
confidence index, Chicago PMI and US initial jobless claims all came
in better than expected. US WTI crude oil fell after US crude oil
inventories rose more than forecast last week. Iron ore advanced
0.1% to USD136.00/t (CFR China).

Expectations for copper production in the Democratic Republic of
Congo to grow 20% to 750kt this year resulted in the IMF upgrading
2013 GDP growth forecasts for DRC from 6.2% to 8.3%.

China’s average daily crude steel output fell 0.6% to 2.132Mt per day
from 11-20 November, to annualise at 778Mtpa. Meanwhile, steel
inventories held at steel mills rose 1m tonnes, or 7.7%, to 13.93Mt in
the same week, according to CISA data.

Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, plans to lift the copper
premium in South Korea by 39% to an 8-year high of USD118/t in
2014, signalling strengthening copper demand.

Australia’s Strike Resources continues to move forward with the
development of its Apurimac Ferrum ~17.5Mt iron ore project in
Peru, after coming to an agreement with local indigenous groups that
had kept the project on hold for two years.

China’s LNG import capacity is expected to rise from 21.3Mtpa this
year to 33.5Mtpa in 2014 as four new facilities begin operations.
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Rio’s ‘big bang’ may be muffled

Rio Tinto is expected to update investors on its multi-billion dollar iron ore expansion plans next week amid predictions the global resources company will take a conservative approach to its development strategy.

Instead of approving major greenfield developments including Silvergrass and Koodaideri, the Rio board is predicted to prefer the brownfield expansion of West Angelas, Yandicoogina and possibly other nearby mines.

“It is going to be economic. They have sunk the capital in the infrastructure so capital intensity of the final stage is going to be low. The return on incremental capital to get to get the volume up is going to be very appealing for them,” said said Royal Bank of Canada analyst Chris Drew.

Mr Young said the lower the capital intensity, the higher the potential return, which was a good outcome for shareholders.

“By minimising capital intensity it means that over the medium term, there’s positive cash flow across the board,” he said.

“It means next year they can pay down debt and in February 2015, they can look to rebase the dividend.”

Read more: http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/rio_big_bang_may_be_muffled_x7wr3b9AWSSsWk0NlcuqPP
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Palmer mulls get out clause with Citic

Mining magnate Clive Palmer is considering forgoing more than $500 million in royalties to break his contract with Chinese-owned company Citic Pacific over the $7 billion Sino Iron project in the Pilbara.

With both parties heading back to court next month after mediation failed, Mr Palmer revealed he was considering using a clause in the contract to end the long-running legal dispute.

The move would be a major risk for Mr Palmer because it would deny him hundreds of millions of dollars of ­revenue stream he was hoping to use for other business interests.

But the new MP said he was confident another iron ore player would be willing to step up to take on the project.

If Mr Palmer invoked the clause – in which he would agree with Citic Pacific the processing royalty on the project cannot be calculated – it could also require the Chinese-owned company, which has already spent more than $7 billion on the project, to return the land at the mine back to its natural state. The project has yet to export any ore.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/p/national/palmer_mulls_get_out_clause_with_c1tCHHPIQkSPDOtKk3CMJK
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CBA Commodities Daily Alert 28-November-13

Posted Image

China announces reforms to coal industry

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and
National Energy Administration have proposed a number of reforms
to China’s domestic coal industry. These reforms include tax cuts to
local coal producers, encouraging horizontal and vertical integration
of coal producers, tightening quality regulations and aiding the
shutdown of loss-making coal capacity. On balance, we believe
these proposed reforms will probably reduce the appeal of thermal
coal import demand in China.

Base metals were mixed, while crude oil benchmarks finished lower
on oversupply concerns after US crude oil inventories rose more than
expected last week. Gold futures advanced on a weaker US dollar.
Iron ore rose 0.3% to USD136.40/t (CFR China).

The Bank of England surprised markets by announcing changes to
the terms of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) extension to
refocus lending towards supporting businesses in 2014.

Indonesia, the world’s largest tin exporter, is hoping for higher tin
prices as it continues with a policy to trade tin on a local exchange
before shipment overseas according to comments by Indonesia’s
trade minister.

Gold holdings at SPDR, the world’s largest gold ETF, declined 0.7%
to 843t, the lowest level since January 2009.

Rio Tinto plans to expand its iron ore output from 290Mtpa in 2H14
to above 350Mtpa in 2017, eclipsing the ramp up rate of previous
forecasts. The company also expects the expansion to be completed
at a capital cost of USD120-130/t, which equates to a total capital
cost of USD8b to USD9.5b – some USD3b lower than earlier
estimates.

Japan’s iron ore imports advanced 3.4% y/y to 12.2Mt in October.
From January to October, Japan’s iron ore imports have lifted 3.4%
to 113.6Mt.
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