MORE than $65 billion has been added to the value of the nation's iron ore miners this financial year -- $2.3bn of it into Andrew Forrest's share portfolio -- as confidence grows in the strength of prices of Australia's biggest export.
Iron ore prices remain above $US130 a tonne, outlasting expectations, as Chinese steel mills continue to buy ore and build stockpiles.
Since June 30, the best performing top 200 Australian stocks have been Mount Gibson Iron, up 111 per cent, Arrium, up 93 per cent, and Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group, up 92 per cent. In the same period, Australian iron ore prices have risen just 13 per cent, illustrating the surprise around the sustained price strength.
In dollar terms, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton will be reaping the most benefits, but their size and diversity have diluted the effect on their share prices.
Since June 30, BHP is up 21 per cent, or $33bn, and Rio is up 25 per cent, or $21.7bn.
The strength in prices comes as a seasonal pullback in steel production usually seen in September and October remains absent.
“China has been restocking after record levels of iron ore imports over the past few months,” Deutsche Bank strategist Xiao Fu said.
“We expect the pace of restocking could slow. However, we are still below the 2011-12 (inventory) peaks, which suggests that the restocking cycle could last for another two or three months.”
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG), Australia’s third-biggest iron ore exporter, lowered the rate on a $4.95 billion loan it’s seeking to refinance debt, according to a person with knowledge of the transaction.
The company will pay interest at 3.25 percentage points more than the London interbank offered rate, with a 1 percent floor on the lending benchmark, compared with 3.75 percentage points originally proposed, said the person, who asked not to be identified because terms aren’t set.
Fortescue is refinancing a $5 billion credit pact to cut interest payments as iron ore prices are forecast to drop. Standard & Poor’s yesterday increased the miner’s credit rating to BB, or two levels below investment-grade, citing a continued increase in production scale and cost reduction. S&P said its outlook is “positive.”
The company’s existing loan was obtained last year and has an interest rate of 4.25 percentage points more than Libor with a 1 percent floor on the lending benchmark, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The new financing, being arranged by Credit Suisse Group AG, is covenant-light, meaning it won’t have financial maintenance requirements that help protect investors. Lenders must submit their commitments to participate in the deal by 5 p.m. today, the person said.
Yantoultra Ngui Published Thursday, Nov. 07 2013, 5:27 AM EST
Canada’s Teck Resources Ltd has sold its stake in Fortescue Metals Group Ltd for A$503-million ($479-million), cashing in on a doubling in the world o.4 iron ore miner’s value since June, a person familiar with the sale said.
The 3 per cent stake is being sold down through a book-build underwritten and run by CIMB, according to a term sheet seen by Reuters.
Vancouver-based Teck, a large copper, zinc and metallurgical coal miner, has long said it wanted to expand into iron ore, and speculation mounted last year it might bid for Fortescue after accumulating a small stake in the miner in early 2012.
However Teck bid earlier this year for Rio Tinto’s 59 per cent stake in Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC), which Rio wants to sell for $3.5 to $4-billion. It was among two remaining bidders, sources said in August.
Teck is set to book a small profit on its stake, as it started buying into Fortescue when the shares were below A$5.
The offer price on the book-build for the 91,452,228 shares was A$5.50, a 3.5 per cent discount to Fortescue’s closing price at A$5.70.
The stock hit an 18-month high on Thursday of A$5.875, buoyed by iron ore prices that have held up much better than expected this year, allowing the miner to start paring its $9.3-billion in net debt.
Fortescue declined to comment on which shareholder was selling the stock. Its founder and chairman Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest is the biggest shareholder with a 33 per cent stake.
Base metal prices were mixed, despite stronger demand hopes after US payrolls rose more than forecast in October. The stronger US employment data prompted gold futures lower on concern the US Federal Reserve will taper stimulus sooner than markets expect. Crude oil benchmarks lifted after US Secretary of State John Kerry tempered expectations of a possible deal over Iran’s nuclear program which, if successful, would ease sanctions on Iran’s crude oil exports. Thermal coal fell marginally to USD84.4/t (FOB Newcastle), while iron ore fell 0.7% to USD135.90/t (CFR China).
The total number of drill rigs deployed onshore in the US rose from 1,742 to 1,754 last week. Rigs deployed in oil plays rose from 1,376 to 1,383, while rigs deployed in gas plays lifted from 360 to 365.
OPEC members, Angola and Iraq, have said that they don’t believe the group needs to change its collective production target of 30mb/d of crude oil ahead of OPEC’s meeting on 4 December. The group produces ~40% of the world’s crude oil.
China’s CPI rose 3.2% y/y in October, just below forecasts of 3.3%, while the country’s PPI contracted 1.5% y/y, just above expectations of a 1.4% decline. China’s industrial production advanced 10.3% y/y in October, above forecasts of 10.0%, while fixed asset investment grew 20.1% y/y (year-to-date), just under expectations of 20.2%. Retail sales rose 13.3% y/y in October, just below forecasts of 13.4%.
Preliminary Chinese trade data in October indicates iron ore imports advanced 6.0% m/m to 75.9Mt in seasonally adjusted terms, while copper imports (unwrought and scrap) rose 3.7% m/m (sa) to 812kt.
Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer, has cancelled all plans to expand uranium output due to weak uranium prices.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s crude steel output lifted 10.1% y/y to 65.1Mt in October. Property construction activity slowed in October. New floor space sales rose in year-on-year terms but by less so than previously. New land sales, floor space construction starts and floor space under construction all fell in year-on-year terms.
Base metal prices finished mostly lower, despite China’s industrial production climbing more than forecast in October. Brent crude oil rose after a meeting between Iran and world representatives failed to come to an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program, which means it could be longer still until sanctions are removed from Iran’s crude oil exports. Gold futures dipped lower on continuing concern the US Federal Reserve will taper stimulus sooner than markets expect after US payrolls rose more than forecast in October. Iron ore remained unchanged at USD135.90/t (CFR China).
Vale plans to sell as much as a 12% stake in aluminium producer Norsk Hydro, as the company aims to recover profit margins by implementing a divestment plan.
Lonmin, the world’s third largest platinum producer, has stockpiled more than twice as much platinum as the last fiscal year as it prepares for union-led labour strikes at its platinum mines in South Africa as workers demand higher wages.
Cheniere Energy plans to begin construction at its 13.5Mtpa Corpus Christi LNG project in 2014 and to start operations in 2018.
Malaysia’s LNG exports increased 8.0% to 18.56Mt from January to September. The country has realised an average LNG price of USD15.70/mmbtu, down 1.3% from a year ago.
The Supreme Court gave the go-ahead on Monday for the auction of around 11.46 million tonnes of iron ore already mined in Goa, potentially doubling the country’s exports this year to top market China if overseas sales are allowed. The court also said it would set up a panel to decide on a cap for Goa’s iron ore output and this should submit an interim report by February 15, 2014, leaving mining still on hold. “We are setting up a six-member expert committee to study the cap on production based on carrying capacity of roads and such,” Justice A.K. Patnaik said in the Supreme Court. He did not specify whether the iron ore could be exported after auction. The Supreme Court imposed a ban on exports and production in Goa last year in a crackdown on illegal mining.
The move to allow the sale of mined ore, and the potential export of the same, is unlikely to have any significant impact on the global iron ore supply chain and prices, with the mining ban in Goa remaining for now. While analysts expect a gradual recovery in Indian exports over the next two years, the pace is likely to be modest and far from the record high of more than 117 million tonnes set in the fiscal year through March 2010. Spot iron ore prices have fallen about 15 percent from this year’s peak of near $160 a tonne as a slower economy curbs Chinese demand while top miners Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) (RIO.L) and BHP Billiton (BHP.AX) (BLT.L) continue to ramp up output.
India used to be the world’s third-largest exporter of iron ore, shipping out ore worth more than $7 billion per year, with much of that from Goa state. But restrictions in Goa and neighbouring Karnataka have slashed output and exports. India’s shipments to China have slowed to a trickle at just over 8 million tonnes from January to September, down 75 percent from a year before. Most of Goa’s iron ore goes to China, fetching about $75 per tonne for low-grade ore of less than 52 percent iron content. But domestic steelmakers are also eager for supplies. Sesa Goa Ltd (SESA.NS), India’s top private-sector mining company and a unit of London-listed Vedanta Resources Plc (VED.L), would be the biggest beneficiary if mining resumed in Goa, as it is the largest producer in the state. Sesa Goa shares were down 0.55 percent at 1019 GMT, slightly outperforming the BSE Sensex.
Steady fixed-asset investment in China should see China’s steel output exceed 800 million metric tonnes next year according to Li Xinchuang, vice secretary-general at the China Iron and Steel Association.
Normally it takes around 1.5 tonnes of iron ore to make one tonne of pig iron, which can then become steel. On this basis, we could estimate China would need a minimum 1,200 tonnes of iron ore to meet its steel output guidance.
BHP has estimated they will produce a total of 192 million tonnes of iron ore in the 2014 financial year, with the total production of all of its projects to come in at 265 million tonnes.
BHP and Rio are by no means the only iron ore producers, but they do account for the lion's share coming from Australia. Given China has made up just under around half of global steel output over the past four years, there has always been plenty of capacity elsewhere to pick up any slack in the iron ore market.
However, things could be changing. It looks like global industrial production is peaking, following an impressive run since the last quarter of 2011. If this is the case, it is expected global steel output will fall, along with the broad need for iron ore.
The question remains how the iron ore price will react. Historically, we have seen iron ore prices overshoot to the downside on numerous occasions over the past few years or so amid fear China’s industrial production would simply evaporate.
There has been much conjecture about when iron ore would experience price weakness, and it is conceivable it may not arrive anytime soon. Varying estimates have the iron ore market reaching excess supply in the second half of next year when projects initiated over the past five years will be delivered.
In the meantime, there is plenty of scope for the iron ore price to find lower ground if demand is not sufficient to meet current supply levels.
Historically, prices of iron ore majors BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have loosely moved in tandem with the iron ore price. However, as production is ramped up and cost per tonne falls, increasing operating margins and overall profitability per tonne produced, there is potential for the relationship to modify. It is feasible to assume lower iron ore prices won’t necessarily equate to lower share prices if volume is robust enough.
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