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A Property Market Crash Looms - Scott Pape - The Barefoot Investor; Pointing out the obvious to ignorant Aussie property zombies
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2013, 04:51 AM (14,480 Views)
Kulganis
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Veritas, do you ever click preview before posting and think to yourself 'that looks wrong'?
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Veritas
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Shadow
23 Oct 2013, 12:31 PM
Veritas, your post is a mess, you seem to be quoting my own text back to me and then pasting in some irrelevant chart, twice. Please try again.
Cant be arsed.

The info is all there.

You want to imagine that the largest globally synchronised housing boom in history is all normal.

Conveniently ignoring, the fact that the fundamentals underpinning it ( loose banking, cheap money, fundamental shift in the lending policy of banks, speculator fervour) have precipitated the single largest economic downturn in 80 years.

That just dumb as far as I'm concerned.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
23 Oct 2013, 12:35 PM
That just dumb as far as I'm concerned.
Funny how us dumb bulls have been generally right about everything, yet the 'smart' bloggers from Macrobusiness who you worship and donate to have been generally wrong about everything, from house prices to iron ore to unemployment. If being this 'dumb' can make me so much money, then I'll stick to being 'dumb'. And you can carry on being 'smart' by renting and reading bear blogs while waiting for the big crash.
Edited by Shadow, 23 Oct 2013, 12:42 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Shadow
23 Oct 2013, 12:40 PM
Veritas
23 Oct 2013, 12:35 PM
That just dumb as far as I'm concerned.
Funny how us dumb bulls have been generally right about everything, yet the 'smart' bloggers from Macrobusiness who you worship and donate to have been generally wrong about everything, from house prices to iron ore to unemployment. If being this 'dumb' can make me so much money, then I'll stick to being 'dumb'. And you can carry on being 'smart' by renting and reading bear blogs while waiting for the big crash.
Yes I worship them. Groan.

Let me put it this way: someone has to jam your message that "everything is as it should be" because its patently absurd.

BTW, saw some comment on a comments page posting bull spruik under a Macrobusiness avatar, was that you or Strindberg?

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/22/australia-property-house-prices

Australia's house prices are running out of control

If we're not careful, Melbourne and Sydney will become like London and Paris – places where the international super-rich grow their money while ordinary residents are priced out


Or we have a massive crash. Either way, calling this normal or desireable or all part of the cycle is absurd and offensive.
Edited by Veritas, 23 Oct 2013, 12:50 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
23 Oct 2013, 12:48 PM
BTW, saw some comment on a comments page posting bull spruik under a Macrobusiness avatar, was that you or Strindberg?
Post a link to it and I'll let you know.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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stinkbug
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Veritas
23 Oct 2013, 12:48 PM


If we're not careful, Melbourne and Sydney will become like London and Paris – places where the international super-rich grow their money while ordinary residents are priced out
This is exactly what I am expecting will happen. That said, I don't own property in either.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Veritas
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Shadow
23 Oct 2013, 12:53 PM
Veritas
23 Oct 2013, 12:48 PM
BTW, saw some comment on a comments page posting bull spruik under a Macrobusiness avatar, was that you or Strindberg?
Post a link to it and I'll let you know.
Cant find it, it was posted here though.

Just presumed it was you or Stringy for obvious reasons.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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miw
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b_b
23 Oct 2013, 11:39 AM
I would be very surprised if we did not get a meaningful supply response in 2014. That may cap prices even without an interest rate rise.
I think Sydney is in a double bind because a supply response only has full effect if the infrastructure keeps up with housing supply Even brownfield infill requires upgrading of public transport, etc.

In a city where it costs 0.66% of *national* GDP to build 10km of railway track without any particular engineering challenges, I fairly confidently predict that anything close to the CBD will continue to skyrocket because no supply response can have much effect.

In short, Sydney's fucked.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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b_b
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miw
23 Oct 2013, 03:56 PM
I think Sydney is in a double bind because a supply response only has full effect if the infrastructure keeps up with housing supply Even brownfield infill requires upgrading of public transport, etc.

In a city where it costs 0.66% of *national* GDP to build 10km of railway track without any particular engineering challenges, I fairly confidently predict that anything close to the CBD will continue to skyrocket because no supply response can have much effect.

In short, Sydney's fucked.
I hope you are right.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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miw
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b_b
23 Oct 2013, 08:55 PM
I hope you are right.
I guess I hope I am wrong. But I invest in well-located Real Estate because I think I am right.

But if I decided I was wrong, I would have a lot more confidence in Australian productivity growth and would see the stock market as a better bet. So opportunity would still exist.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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