Veritas, do you ever click preview before posting and think to yourself 'that looks wrong'?
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Veritas, your post is a mess, you seem to be quoting my own text back to me and then pasting in some irrelevant chart, twice. Please try again.
Cant be arsed.
The info is all there.
You want to imagine that the largest globally synchronised housing boom in history is all normal.
Conveniently ignoring, the fact that the fundamentals underpinning it ( loose banking, cheap money, fundamental shift in the lending policy of banks, speculator fervour) have precipitated the single largest economic downturn in 80 years.
That just dumb as far as I'm concerned.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Funny how us dumb bulls have been generally right about everything, yet the 'smart' bloggers from Macrobusiness who you worship and donate to have been generally wrong about everything, from house prices to iron ore to unemployment. If being this 'dumb' can make me so much money, then I'll stick to being 'dumb'. And you can carry on being 'smart' by renting and reading bear blogs while waiting for the big crash.
Funny how us dumb bulls have been generally right about everything, yet the 'smart' bloggers from Macrobusiness who you worship and donate to have been generally wrong about everything, from house prices to iron ore to unemployment. If being this 'dumb' can make me so much money, then I'll stick to being 'dumb'. And you can carry on being 'smart' by renting and reading bear blogs while waiting for the big crash.
Yes I worship them. Groan.
Let me put it this way: someone has to jam your message that "everything is as it should be" because its patently absurd.
BTW, saw some comment on a comments page posting bull spruik under a Macrobusiness avatar, was that you or Strindberg?
Australia's house prices are running out of control
If we're not careful, Melbourne and Sydney will become like London and Paris – places where the international super-rich grow their money while ordinary residents are priced out
Or we have a massive crash. Either way, calling this normal or desireable or all part of the cycle is absurd and offensive.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
If we're not careful, Melbourne and Sydney will become like London and Paris – places where the international super-rich grow their money while ordinary residents are priced out
This is exactly what I am expecting will happen. That said, I don't own property in either.
BTW, saw some comment on a comments page posting bull spruik under a Macrobusiness avatar, was that you or Strindberg?
Post a link to it and I'll let you know.
Cant find it, it was posted here though.
Just presumed it was you or Stringy for obvious reasons.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I would be very surprised if we did not get a meaningful supply response in 2014. That may cap prices even without an interest rate rise.
I think Sydney is in a double bind because a supply response only has full effect if the infrastructure keeps up with housing supply Even brownfield infill requires upgrading of public transport, etc.
In a city where it costs 0.66% of *national* GDP to build 10km of railway track without any particular engineering challenges, I fairly confidently predict that anything close to the CBD will continue to skyrocket because no supply response can have much effect.
In short, Sydney's fucked.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
I think Sydney is in a double bind because a supply response only has full effect if the infrastructure keeps up with housing supply Even brownfield infill requires upgrading of public transport, etc.
In a city where it costs 0.66% of *national* GDP to build 10km of railway track without any particular engineering challenges, I fairly confidently predict that anything close to the CBD will continue to skyrocket because no supply response can have much effect.
I guess I hope I am wrong. But I invest in well-located Real Estate because I think I am right.
But if I decided I was wrong, I would have a lot more confidence in Australian productivity growth and would see the stock market as a better bet. So opportunity would still exist.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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