After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
When I moved into my first flat in 2000 Scott Pape was advising against purchasing property in his Barefoot Investor column in the Sunday Herald Sun. It was shocking advice back then.
You may think his advice isn't biased but I can tell you it's been shithouse over the journey.
When I moved into my first flat in 2000 Scott Pape was advising against purchasing property.
Just because the bubble hasn't burst yet doesn't mean it's not going to. The fundamentals for our over-expensive property prices still don't stack up, and are heavily reliant on foreign investors, cashed-up immigrants and SMSF-funded speculators.
Just because the bubble hasn't burst yet doesn't mean it's not going to. The fundamentals for our over-expensive property prices still don't stack up, and are heavily reliant on foreign investors, cashed-up immigrants and SMSF-funded speculators.
track record is a far better indicator than your tears of rage.
Timo
22 Oct 2013, 04:51 AM
Read it, absorb it and take on some advice from someone who's not the vested scumbag real estate low life just aching to tell you want to hear.
Some of these analysts really get paid to dribble shit.
Then you've got the other extreme of property seminar exploitation promoting their almost evangelist like crap that property investing is always hunky dory.
Timo
If you really think a crash is coming you are truly off your face....
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
When I moved into my first flat in 2000 Scott Pape was advising against purchasing property in his Barefoot Investor column in the Sunday Herald Sun. It was shocking advice back then.
You may think his advice isn't biased but I can tell you it's been shithouse over the journey.
Yes, I assume Scott Pape is a still renter. He made a disastrous financial decision more than a decade ago to rent instead of buy a house because he thought houses were overpriced and would crash. Now, more than a decade later, he is locked into this position. He has painted himself into a corner and is forced to carry on with his Bubble/Crash theory because he desperately needs house prices to crash in order to vindicate (to himself and his readers) his earlier bad decision.
Although he did recently buy a sheep farm, so maybe he lives there now. Probably not a great financial decision either.
Yes, I assume Scott Pape is a still renter. He made a disastrous financial decision more than a decade ago to rent instead of buy a house because he thought houses were overpriced and would crash. Now, more than a decade later, he is locked into this position. He has painted himself into a corner and is forced to carry on with his Bubble/Crash theory because he desperately needs house prices to crash in order to vindicate (to himself and his readers) his earlier bad decision.
Although he did recently buy a sheep farm, so maybe he lives there now. Probably not a great financial decision either.
Agree, I wouldn't pay much attention to Scott Pape on housing either.
Sydney is up almost 10% in the last few months alone and in many areas 20% in total. That's huge. Usually the RBA would nip it in the bud with a rate rise, but I don't believe they will this time.
Kudos to CJ who picked this and in particular the recent strong gains.
But as stated above I disagree and expect a slowing in 2014 - maybe a small correction but it won't fall back anywhere near the levels prior to the boom unless we see a rate increase of some magnitude. This boom is what the RBA wanted, it's not what they fear. The boom seems to be spreading nationwide now.
David Llewellyn-Smith is behaving like a petulant child. He should just come out and admit he got it wrong. He predicted a crash, a decade of nominal house price declines from 2010. Instead prices are booming. But he is just another permabear who has painted himself into a corner. He is compelled to keep predicting a bigger and bigger crash as prices keep rising, in order to vindicate his earlier bad calls.
Quote:
But as stated above I disagree and expect a slowing in 2014 - maybe a small correction but it won't fall back anywhere near the levels prior to the boom unless we see a rate increase of some magnitude. This boom is what the RBA wanted, it's not what they fear. The boom seems to be spreading nationwide now.
What is your expectation shadow?
I expect Sydney prices to keep rising pretty strongly until interest rates are raised significantly (by more than 1%).
In 2002 the RBA started raising interest rates, partly to cool the last Sydney property boom. After rates were up by 1% or so, Sydney peaked. However at that time there was also an over-supply in Sydney (rental vacancy rates at 4.5%), which contributed to the Sydney correction during 2004-2005.
At this stage my 2008 prediction that Sydney house prices would approach $1M by 2015 is looking increasingly safe.
It is quite telling how the bears used to mock my prediction every time I mentioned it, but now they are strangely silent on the matter.
I'm very disappointed in Earthsta... not sticking around to face the music. He did what he predicted the bulls would do... vanished without a trace. All talk, no balls.
David Llewellyn-Smith is behaving like a petulant child. He should just come out and admit he got it wrong. He predicted a crash, a decade of nominal house price declines from 2010. Instead prices are booming. But he is just another permabear who has painted himself into a corner. He is compelled to keep predicting a bigger and bigger crash as prices keep rising, in order to vindicate his earlier bad calls.
I expect Sydney prices to keep rising pretty strongly until interest rates are raised significantly (by more than 1%).
In 2002 the RBA started raising interest rates, partly to cool the last Sydney property boom. After rates were up by 1% or so, Sydney peaked. However at that time there was also an over-supply in Sydney (rental vacancy rates at 4.5%), which contributed to the Sydney correction during 2004-2005.
At this stage my 2008 prediction that Sydney house prices would approach $1M by 2015 is looking increasingly safe.
It is quite telling how the bears used to mock my prediction every time I mentioned it, but now they are strangely silent on the matter.
I'm very disappointed in Earthsta... not sticking around to face the music. He did what he predicted the bulls would do... vanished without a trace. All talk, no balls.
Catweasel say a piece of the chewing the gum closer to the million dollar at a t+1.
So its predict is no more than taunt of sparring partner.
Further the more, mouzealot's revisionist in a rear view,
to explain a future,
is a easy for it to digest.
And it can even the build forecast the model,
based on framework of its belief system.
So it no more than sailing in ocean....
....in plastic bucket.
So mouzealot still firmly the entrench in glossy brochure mind.
I expect Sydney prices to keep rising pretty strongly until interest rates are raised significantly (by more than 1%).
In 2002 the RBA started raising interest rates, partly to cool the last Sydney property boom. After rates were up by 1% or so, Sydney peaked. However at that time there was also an over-supply in Sydney (rental vacancy rates at 4.5%), which contributed to the Sydney correction during 2004-2005.
At this stage my 2008 prediction that Sydney house prices would approach $1M by 2015 is looking increasingly safe.
It is quite telling how the bears used to mock my prediction every time I mentioned it, but now they are strangely silent on the matter.
Thanks for the reply.
$1M still seems a long way off but within 20 Klm of the CBD it's probably there already.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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