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Robert Shiller's Devastating Takedown Of Housing As An Investment; Will Have You Renting For The Rest Of Your Life
Topic Started: 15 Oct 2013, 08:54 AM (3,314 Views)
miw
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Catweasel
15 Oct 2013, 10:13 AM
Catweasel say many the think it a outrageous,

about Robert the Schiller be award Nobel the Prize.
That's because they only know about his more recent, more notorious history.

Fortunately for him, the Nobel committee are only worried about the stuff he did before he became a media tart.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Elastic
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Veritas
15 Oct 2013, 01:07 PM
Where are Shadow and Strindberg when the bulls need a good professional smear job done?

Stringy, still doing up the hate file on Mr.Schiller?

Perhaps the boys are a little worried what with those pesky Norwegians handing housing bears Nobel prizes.




Reminds me of conversations with Shadow.

Me: Our prices are bubbly.
Shadow: Please look at this list of countries who have had similar booms.
Me: They are bubbles too.

Now, I've got a Nobel laureate in my camp.

Cool.
I'm hoping Strindberg can go one better and manage to completely discredit Alfred Nobel, the creator of the awards, thereby removing the gloss from any Nobel Prize winners.

Lol, just realised he was the inventor of dynamite and his family built armaments in the early days.
Edited by Elastic, 15 Oct 2013, 03:32 PM.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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KERRY O’BRIEN: Australia’s housing downturn was relatively short-lived and we’re now heating up again quite substantially in most cities. What’s your instinctive reaction to that?

PROF. ROBERT SHILLER: I would imagine that it has bubble aspects to it. But, you know, maybe I shouldn’t say; I’m a foreigner, I’m not … I was recently in China and I got to talk to a lot of people. And I could smell and sniff a bubble there. What I mean by that is I could see that people’s judgments were influenced by rising prices, and the rising prices were amplifying for them optimistic stories, and that’s what happens in a bubble. We’ve seen this happen in the United States.

I’ve been doing questionnaire surveys, and during the – in 2003, when our boom was going gangbusters, we were seeing 15 to 20 per cent expected returns for 10 years. People thought it’s gonna go on forever. I know because we’ve done questionnaires and asked them. And it was a wild expectation.

It was generated out of excitement from the real estate price increase. And we know that the cities where prices were going up more, there were stronger long-term expectations. These expectations were ultimately violated because the prices came down, but – so I don’t think they were rational expectations; they were bubble expectations. And there’s an easy tendency for this to happen again.

So when I hear that in Australia prices are going out rapidly, I’m inclined to suspect that something similar to what has happened in China is happening. And I think that the Australians may well be deceived, just as we were in the United States, by the sense that prices never fall here.

That Australia hasn’t seen any significant drop of prices, that seems to mean, in a very intuitive way of thinking, that it can’t happen here. But that’s exactly what ultimately makes it happen.
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Catweasel
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Catweasel say crikey.

That the kind of mindset,

which border on anti-narrative,

and cast suspicion on a prophecies,

which make mouse, gurus, and is beloved the media throw a suspicions the back,

on a Schiller,

and label it,

as some the kind of enemy.

But in the way,

it just a shin mirror in its face,

so it can understand its own the behavior.
Catweasel say what the if,

bubble is a based on mouse's behave and a expectations,

and not on well-worn narratives that make it believe that its behave and a expect,

is vision of future?
Edited by Catweasel, 15 Oct 2013, 05:14 PM.
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stinkbug
15 Oct 2013, 11:55 AM
Leaving aside your insults for the moment, let's tackle the issue of property being an asset.

The definition of an asset is something that provides future benefit. Does property provide future benefit? Yes, I think so.

Let's also think about Robert Kiyosaki's definition of an asset. Does it put money in my pocket? Interesting one... Maybe not at first, but over time yes, yes it does.

Property provides yield consistently, and generally grows in value over time. So if I can buy a property that covers its costs, what is to stop me simply waiting for enough time to pass to get the result I want?

You also suggest property investors have low IQs. Has it occurred to to you that most property investors have full time jobs? Many investors (including myself) have professional jobs that pay significantly more than average. Property is a very effective, low risk way to store and grow wealth.

Young people aint buying? They want to rent in the popular locations? No problem at all, they can rent from me. I'm happy to use their money to buy assets, and happy to live off their money when I retire. Sounds like a good deal from where I'm sitting.
Haha he is a funny one. I agree with you. Does property put money in your pocket? Sure it does, but I would argue that you would still have rocks in your head to buy anything near the prices we've experienced over the last say 10-15 years in most places. The fundamentals do not add up. I'm interested in your idea that most property investors have full time jobs and many have professional jobs. Everyone today regards themselves as a professional, when in fact there are only a few professions, aren't there? Medicine. law, dentistry, engineering and that's about it. Yes. The young can rent. But he's making the point that they are opting out entirely. I see a lot of the kids staying at home with their parents or just leaving. He could be right.
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Strindberg
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Veritas
15 Oct 2013, 01:07 PM
Where are Shadow and Strindberg when the bulls need a good professional smear job done?
I've decided that I'm no longer going to make any effort to reveal the true nature of housing bears' pin-up media tarts (unless there's a laugh in it).

I have never received thanks for my efforts in the past and to be honest I think blinkered and offensive bears like yourself really deserve what they get ie:

- an unnecessarily large lifetime financial outlay on accommodation

- lack of independence and home security

- massive shit from their partners when it is realised that years have been wasted waiting for a crash.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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