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When the US defaults, what will become of my absurdly oversized homeloan?; Shall I begin hoarding canned food and ammunition?
Topic Started: 15 Oct 2013, 07:19 AM (2,274 Views)
herbie
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themoops
15 Oct 2013, 12:18 PM
When was that? 1970? Before it became like Compton? :lol

Yep, they've got massive armies, and we've got a bunch of people who hate their governments and each other, the last thing in the world we want is to fight a war for bankers and specufestors and each other.
Have spent time in Russia Moops - They are hard, hard fuckers ... Don't fuck with them.

Haven't spent time in China - But my general impression has to be, that if one fucked with them, they just could make the Russkies look like a bunch o' demure Orthodox Christian school girls ?
Edited by herbie, 15 Oct 2013, 12:31 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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ECMO
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Excellent points everybody.

Skamy, I think you approach your answer from the viewpoint of an investor, which is slightly different from what I was asking (though that is completely my fault, given the vagueness of my question). Though the dollar value of a home may wax and wane, it remains valuable to me as a hollow object which protects my family from the extremes of climate -and this value remains essentially unchanged over time. True, I would not benefit spectacularly from the "lashes of cash" which await the clever investor, but neither would a "crash to ashes" influence the water permeability of my roof, so I would be rather content in this neutral position.

Now, I understand that people without tinfoil hats are not especially concerned about the realistic possibility of a default, but it is still interesting to explore it as a hypothetical scenario, a thought experiment if you will.

I am more interested in the influence of these large-scale financial disasters on the financial positions of people who are not negatively geared investors, but rather single-home mortgage holders. For instance, if there is widespread collapse of financial institutions and many jobs are lost, the price of certain mortgaged properties may potentially decrease - how does this affect the behaviour of the lending bank towards the mortgage-holder?

I am only assuming this, of course; I have no idea what normally happens in this situation - but it seems that the banks evaluation of the property's value factors significantly into how much of their money they are willing to lend you. What happens to negative equity in such scenarios?

Those who have more information than me may help me to find parallels to this scenario in recent history. Did anything similar happen in the Gold Coast?
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Debt default may be goal of some US hard-liners

Since the US civil war, there’s been a long tradition of senior American officials wanting to repudiate paying the national debt. As the hours tick before this week’s deadline, the prospect of a debt default draws ever nearer.

The Obama administration and those on Wall Street have long thought that such a prospect was so horrifying that it would necessarily lead to resolution of the current budget impasse. What I don’t think they understand is that there has been a movement under way for some years among right-wing economists and activists not merely to default on the debt, but even to repudiate it.

Those making this argument are largely unknown to professional economists and journalists, but their research permeates the obscure web sites where Tea Party members get their ideas. And not all are obscure. The late Nobel Prize-winning economist James Buchanan supported debt default, as has the Harvard historian Niall Ferguson.

I have previously noted that defeated Southerners were very hostile to being taxed to repay the Union debt after the Civil War, while the Confederate debt was repudiated and not permitted to be repaid by the states. This is the reason that Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, guaranteeing the validity of the national debt, was included in that amendment.

There are still many in the South, where the Republican Party is now based, whose hostility to the national debt traces back to those days.

In 1995, the Foundation for Economic Education, the oldest free market organisation in the country, published a study advocating cancellation of the debt on the grounds that the budget would forever be balanced afterwards.

Any number of Republicans in Congress have said they will never vote to increase the debt ceiling, no matter what. Others believe the threat of default is the only way to force President Obama to accept their demands, whether it’s an immediate balanced budget or repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/p/world/debt_default_may_be_goal_of_some_1OuChyxRwSZkPhIMTUhrwJ
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newjez
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I like to think of the US debt ceiling as a bunch of silly kids standing at the top of a cliff. They didn't mean for little Jimmy to fall off. They were only fooling around. Sometimes people take a joke that bit too far to the point where it's no longer funny. It's time to step away from the cliff face.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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themoops
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herbie
15 Oct 2013, 12:26 PM
Have spent time in Russia Moops - They are hard, hard fuckers ... Don't fuck with them.

Haven't spent time in China - But my general impression has to be, that if one fucked with them, they just could make the Russkies look like a bunch o' demure Orthodox Christian school girls ?
Yeah I've met some, they're pretty much the only people I find a bit intimidating, I wonder how spirited the Chinese army is. I can almost 100% say we would be weak as piss in that department. I could barely use 5 fingers to think of people worth dying for.
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Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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Joe Hockey says US default 'almost inconceivable'

By business editor Peter Ryan

Treasurer Joe Hockey has weighed into the looming debt ceiling crisis in the United States, saying a default is "almost inconceivable".

But Mr Hockey has warned that if the US does suffer "a heart attack", it would affect the global economy.

US politicians have been in intense meetings in the hopes of sealing a deal before the US Treasury exhausts its borrowing authority on Thursday (local time).

"It would affect the world. It is almost inconceivable that the United States would default on its debt repayments," Mr Hockey told US cable channel CNBC from New York.

"I think members of Congress know that. The question is: how are they going to ensure that this extraordinary period of uncertainty does not become the norm for the rest of the Obama administration term in office? That is the big issue."

While Mr Hockey remains confident the US Congress will strike a deal on raising the debt ceiling above $US17 trillion, he says Australia is prepared to deal with any fallout.

"Certainly we have back-pocket plans to deal with whatever arises over the next few weeks as a result of negotiations. If the United States suffers a heart attack, without doubt, it will affect the rest of the global economy," Mr Hockey said.

"There is a salient lesson here for the rest of the world with what is happening in the United States.

"The world must live within its means, and you cannot wait until five minutes to midnight to deal with fiscal pressures; you cannot wait until five minutes to midnight to deal with the massive debt burden left by previous generations."

Mr Hockey has been in the United States for meetings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, which in recent days have warned a US debt default could put America back into recession.

Mr Hockey also believes America's credibility has been damaged by the deadlock of the debt ceiling and the partial US shutdown, which forced Mr Obama's withdrawal from last week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bali.

"Unquestionably, the failure of the president to be able to attend the APEC summit in Bali and the East-Asia Summit had a negative impact on the United States in the Asia region because ultimately they have been key drivers of both initiatives," he said.

"The fact that they were unable to attend because of domestic problems sends a wrong message."

Last week Mr Obama said his absence from APEC and the East Asia Summit gave China the upper hand in trade negotiations.

Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-15/joe-hockey-says-us-default-almost-inconceiveable/5022594
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miw
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herbie
15 Oct 2013, 12:26 PM
Haven't spent time in China - But my general impression has to be, that if one fucked with them, they just could make the Russkies look like a bunch o' demure Orthodox Christian school girls ?
Well, over the past 10 years it would seem that the Russian Mafia have been almost completely driven out of the area near Ritan park here in Beijing, to the point that all their joints have been knocked down (until about 5 years ago the Russians ran the only strip joint in Beijing. Now the whole lot is gone and there is a shopping centre in its place.). This is something that the Yakuza have not managed to do in Japan.

I kid you not a friend of mine was in the office of the local Chaoyang govt. Commerce dept and was a bit worried about organised crime bothering his business. The head of the dept said "fuck the Mafia. We are the Mafia."
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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