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Mining business confidence has massive up swing; According to the bears favorite - Roy Morgan
Topic Started: 9 Oct 2013, 04:30 PM (1,648 Views)
Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

"It is part of a nation-wide upswing and increased optimism about the coming year."

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/business-confidence-rises-in-the-mining-industry

I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Perthite
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Pig Iron
9 Oct 2013, 04:30 PM
"It is part of a nation-wide upswing and increased optimism about the coming year."

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/business-confidence-rises-in-the-mining-industry

NAB picked up a bounce too.

Industry breakdown shows mining has the worst confidence level. -25 points.

Worst out of all industries.

http://business.nab.com.au/monthly-business-survey-september-2013-4761/


You may want to change that to pessimistic for mining.
Edited by Perthite, 9 Oct 2013, 06:24 PM.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Perthite
9 Oct 2013, 06:21 PM
NAB picked up a bounce too.

Industry breakdown shows mining has the worst confidence level. -25 points.

Worst out of all industries.

http://business.nab.com.au/monthly-business-survey-september-2013-4761/


You may want to change that to pessimistic for mining.
both index's show improving business confidence, and your call is to remain pessimistic?

i think you should stick to diesel fitting.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Perthite
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Worst industry in regards to confidence. I think that says enough.
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doubleview
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Perthite
9 Oct 2013, 08:24 PM
Worst industry in regards to confidence. I think that says enough.
Clearly Pig iron/Timmy has exposed himself !!

Isnt it funny how there is one bull who says mining is alright no matter what !

Game over piggy.
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Pig Iron
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Perthite
9 Oct 2013, 08:24 PM
Worst industry in regards to confidence. I think that says enough.
according to roy morgan it's the best, so i guess in this case it would be reasonable to meet in the middle and acknowledge that mining is more confident than it was last quarter.

but i know you won't do that because it would shoot your world view full of holes.
doubleview
9 Oct 2013, 08:46 PM
Isnt it funny how there is one bull who says mining is alright no matter what !
i've posted on here numerous times that i think base metals aside from iron and tin are in for a rough time. you are clearly just a dickhead.
doubleview
9 Oct 2013, 08:46 PM
Game over piggy.
oh really, like the other 100 times some bear has said that to me only to be shown wrong a few months later. don't worry i'm sure you will slip on another sock and continue the charade by this time next year.
Edited by Pig Iron, 10 Oct 2013, 12:36 AM.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Coalman
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Credit Suisse upgraded their iron ore price forecasts too.....

Quote:
 
It is not our base case for rising supply to trigger an immediate and dramatic fall in prices. Rather, we believe they will ease back as mills maintain or, taking advantage of such ample supply, slightly increase raw material stocks in preparation for their next output increase in 1Q 2014.

In terms of risks to this view, we see few potential catalysts for an immediate acceleration in run rates but, given the demonstrated resilience of mills’ output, we have to consider the possibility that it could hold up close to current levels for the next three months. If this occurs, we believe that domestic steel markets would push into greater surpluses, furthering the sell-down of rebar, in which instance mills’ margins would come under further pressure and there would be a real likelihood that they ran another destocking cycle; this they have already done twice in the past 18 months. This would then push iron ore prices lower on reduced apparent, if not actual, demand. Furthermore, were coking coal to continue its recent relative gains, this could provide the catalyst for iron ore to “catch down” to rebar prices.

As with supply, we do not therefore see why demand would contribute to a tighter near term market, even if good volumes are still being both purchased and consumed. Our base case is for prices to ease back but it would be short-sighted to dismiss the risk of an, albeit temporary, more dramatic downswing. Iron ore’s volatility has been well demonstrated in recent years, with moves in either direction tending to overshoot.

2014 and 2015: The key years to come

Once into 1Q next year, we expect the market to tighten temporarily on reduced availability of domestically produced Chinese tonnage, as well as the usual weather disruptions to both Australian and Brazilian shipments. Thereafter, we believe the market will face its first true test of a period in surplus.

…2015 should then follow a similar pattern, with firmer pricing in 1Q before the remainder of the year provides iron ore with its second period of significant surplus. Again, the Australian majors should play a key role as BHPB de-bottlenecks its existing operation and Rio begins to take the initial steps on the path to 360 Mt/y capacity. Brazil will also need to play a larger role here as Vale adds a further 28 Mt, Anglo finally starts the Minas Rio project, shipping 6 Mt, and Usiminas expands exports toward 6 Mt.

Price falls required to balance the market

Were producers’ aggregate behaviour perfectly rational, on these base-case assumptions, prices would merely need to fall to the marginal cost of production, on which point it is worth noting that consensus price forecasts line up very well with the marginal cost of production on our proprietary cost curve (for details, see Iron Ore Cost Curves).

However, as has been demonstrated time and again, prices tend to reset costs. In the shorter term, many producers have high fixed costs and may often stay operational longer than supply cost curves might suggest. Prices invariably “undershoot” for a period of time before supply and demand come back into balance. Further, market-clearing is dominated by cargoes entering the market on nearer-term pricing, meaning sharper falls are likely as mills withdraw from purchasing volumes literally “at sea.”
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doubleview
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Pig Iron
10 Oct 2013, 12:33 AM
according to roy morgan it's the best, so i guess in this case it would be reasonable to meet in the middle and acknowledge that mining is more confident than it was last quarter.

but i know you won't do that because it would shoot your world view full of holes.

i've posted on here numerous times that i think base metals aside from iron and tin are in for a rough time. you are clearly just a dickhead.

oh really, like the other 100 times some bear has said that to me only to be shown wrong a few months later. don't worry i'm sure you will slip on another sock and continue the charade by this time next year.
Socks socks socks !Fuck is that all you can talk about.

like we bears have said numerous times piggy timmy who else are u.

Game over you've exposed yourself!

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Dr Watson
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Rising confidence is great news. I'm sure the RBA will take this into account at future meetings.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

doubleview
10 Oct 2013, 12:25 PM
like we bears have said numerous times piggy timmy who else are u.
this is it i don't use any socks. i mean really you mouth breathers can't handle me now, imagine if i used socks?
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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