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Perth house prices to jump again
Topic Started: 7 Oct 2013, 12:35 PM (3,462 Views)
Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Veritas
8 Oct 2013, 07:40 PM
Total and utter nonsense.

Really Timmy, I thought you got the whole cheap and easy credit + speculation + fundamentals +inelastic supply = massive price inflation bit. And just thought it a new norm.

Posted Image
fucking hell you are an obtuse twit.
i am talking about construction costs.
herbie
8 Oct 2013, 07:21 PM
Fibro was used from the 1950s on Piggy:

http://asbestosremovalguide.com/446/how-to-identify-asbestos-fibro-cladding/

'N it was the 1930s ya originally asked about no?
umm no totally wrong.
fibro was used in plenty of pre ww2 houses.
Edited by Pig Iron, 9 Oct 2013, 12:51 AM.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

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7 Oct 2013, 12:35 PM
Perth house prices to jump again

Perth house prices are tipped to rise in coming months despite analysts warning the Reserve Bank will have to consider more rate cuts next year to prop up the economy.

RP Data analysis suggests current sharp increases in prices in Sydney and Melbourne will be followed by further growth in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.

Figures this week showed house values in the nation's two biggest cities growing at an annual rate of more than 20 per cent.

Research analyst Cameron Kusher said Sydney and Melbourne traditionally led house prices, reacting more quickly to rate cuts and economic conditions than other capitals.

In 2001, Perth house prices barely moved, despite strong growth on the east coast. It was not until mid-2004 that Perth prices surged. Over the past 10 years Perth prices have risen 143 per cent compared with 80 per cent in Melbourne and Brisbane.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19280394/perth-house-prices-to-jump-again/
Foxbat101 told you.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTtYura9VKs


Boom baby boom.


Supply and demand.

If you don't like it leave.

Perth that is.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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skamy
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Kulganis
8 Oct 2013, 12:27 PM
It's really because it is difficult to think beyond memory, Skamy is being truthful, but only if you ignore ~100 years prior to about 1989:

Posted Image

Or ~60 years prior to about 1953:

Posted Image
You do know that what you are seeing is that the median house price remained steady over those years in Australia, probably due to the vast amounts of available land. This does not tell the true story on the massive wealth building that folk achieved from property investment, as the median house changes with time as it gets smaller and or further out from the city.

You can find quotes on property investment that are hundreds of years old, (someone here said there are quotes from Roman times) as long as the population and or prosperity of a city increases the house prices will also increase. The mechanism by which this happens is easy to understand and I have explained this several times before. As the number of people with higher incomes grows they compete for the same houses in good locations and push up prices. It is not rocket science.

Real house prices are also a nonsense, you should look at nominal prices as that is what people care about, people don't remove inflation from any other investment it is silly to do this for housing.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Kulganis
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Pig Iron
8 Oct 2013, 06:38 PM
so what did a house in 1930 look like compared to today?

you are just another bear trapped in 1/2 truths....
Posted Image

See the blue line on the graph? That's real construction costs, for the most part, between 1972 and about 1987 costs were above prices.

It doesn't really matter what houses looked like in the 30's, in about 1987 all of a sudden prices shot up, how do you explain that?

Prices clearly didn't track average income (the red line), between 1972 and about 1987 incomes were higher than prices.

Could it have something to do with cheap credit and a bit of speculation?

High construction costs can't be the cause of high prices, new construction purchases pale in comparison to established stock purchases for both investors and owner occupiers.

Posted Image
A graph I whipped up (I couldn't find one that had everything on it), if you want to see the original data, http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/xls/d06hist.xls
skamy
9 Oct 2013, 02:15 AM
Real house prices are also a nonsense, you should look at nominal prices as that is what people care about, people don't remove inflation from any other investment it is silly to do this for housing.
Oh yes, lets ignore the effect of inflation, people don't want to see it, even though they're purchasing something that will most likely be resold years later after inflation has done its work.

Most other investments offer some sort of return over the period it is held, IP's offer rents, shares offer dividends, OO's don't get anything back till the house is sold years later.

It's scary how much data you're willing to ignore just so your wealth expectations can be upheld.
Edited by Kulganis, 9 Oct 2013, 03:03 AM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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goldbug
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skamy
8 Oct 2013, 10:31 AM
Property has always been a good steady investment ,sometimes there will be downturns but these are rare - most of the time prices rise and prices usually rise rapidly coming out of a downturn. - It is you who have fallen for some of the more outlandish tales of the gold spruikers who have told you silly stories of this new world where people compete more strongly for gold coins than they do for the roof over their heads. Unbelievable :re:
Goldbugs like me who bought in early are up 50% or more, we are sitting pretty and don't care about yield because their are no fees to offset, no mortgage, rates, repair bills or body corp. There will always be wealthy people wishing to divert some of their capital into gold. But there will not always be millions of average people with good paying jobs who are willing to pay a fortune for a roof over their heads. History proves this to be true.

You have been sucked in. Sucked into the TV investment property scam. You have leveraged your future in the vain hope that two young people will either sign up for a million dollar mortgage or be forced to rent a property off you for $600/wk with rent increases of 7% pa. for the rest of their lives. Regardless of whether they have jobs or not. But you will find to your dismay that they have other options, just like all the people in North America, spain, Ireland, Greece and all the rest of the nations who fell into depression discovered. This is the worst time in history to be holding debt and you PI's are choking on it.

Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Veritas
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Pig Iron
9 Oct 2013, 12:48 AM
fucking hell you are an obtuse twit.
i am talking about construction costs.

umm no totally wrong.
fibro was used in plenty of pre ww2 houses.
what does the yellow line refer to Timmy?

Honestly, I did think you were just part of the "new paradigm" brigade.

I can forward you a reading list if you like.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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newjez
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newjez
8 Oct 2013, 11:05 PM
Yes we have that link. I want a link to the story that article is referring to.
Seriously - where is the link. He quotes Cameron Kusher - but with no related article there is no context. Why no link to the source? I can't find it on RP Data's web site. I've googled the guy. Where is the article where he makes this claim? Anyone?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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goldbug
9 Oct 2013, 07:37 AM
Goldbugs like me who bought in early are up 50% or more, we are sitting pretty and don't care about yield because their are no fees to offset, no mortgage, rates, repair bills or body corp. There will always be wealthy people wishing to divert some of their capital into gold. But there will not always be millions of average people with good paying jobs who are willing to pay a fortune for a roof over their heads. History proves this to be true.

You have been sucked in. Sucked into the TV investment property scam. You have leveraged your future in the vain hope that two young people will either sign up for a million dollar mortgage or be forced to rent a property off you for $600/wk with rent increases of 7% pa. for the rest of their lives. Regardless of whether they have jobs or not. But you will find to your dismay that they have other options, just like all the people in North America, spain, Ireland, Greece and all the rest of the nations who fell into depression discovered. This is the worst time in history to be holding debt and you PI's are choking on it.
Hit the spot hey?

How can you believe this silly nonsense that Australia today is anything like the countries who suffered corrections during the GFC crisis. These are just way out there Armageddon scenarios sold by doom and gloomers and gold spruikers. Don't be silly enough to put any real money on their long odds predictions.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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