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It ain't a bubble 'cause it didn't bust; bull 'n bear discuss ...
Topic Started: 5 Oct 2013, 11:28 PM (2,762 Views)
stinkbug
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dave
6 Oct 2013, 06:37 PM
Which is why you have to ask, "Why is the land so expensive when you have so much of it?"
Answer that and you're part of the way to explaining why the wages have to be so high
The entire economy here is based on houses and holes... and money is falling out of the holes.
The vast majority of people in this country live in or around the major centres. The land at these places is limited relative to the demand, hence high prices. It doesn't help that we have high development fees, heaps of taxes, and local/state governments who are addicted to this revenue.

So, we have expensive land near the jobs and desirable locations, heaps of taxes, and high cost of labour. But be careful, it's not because of high prices that 'labour has to be expensive', labour is expensive because there are people out there who will pay.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

mango66
6 Oct 2013, 07:12 PM
It's not a bubble because house prices nationally have simply tracked incomes for more than a decade
+1
herbie
6 Oct 2013, 08:55 AM
Hmmm - So that would that make it a (relatively) new paradigm then? :re:
No... there's nothing new about house prices tracking incomes over the medium-long term. It's pretty normal.

I can't think of anything more logical for house prices to track other than incomes.
goldbug
6 Oct 2013, 10:11 AM
the ABS definition of houshold income which is constantly modified to make the statistics look better and suck in more investors
LOL, that sounds like the type of unsubstantiated nonsense they peddle on Macrobusiness.

It's no wonder you bears are always so dumbstruck by the constant lack of a house price crash when you believe stuff like this.
Edited by Shadow, 6 Oct 2013, 08:35 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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themoops
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Ruby Member
Shadow
6 Oct 2013, 08:31 PM
+1

No... there's nothing new about house prices tracking incomes over the medium-long term. It's pretty normal.
Yeah nice misquote.

They've certainly tracked your lack of a penis, and all sorts of nauseating egoism, narcissism, and all the worst the west is known for.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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stinkbug
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themoops
6 Oct 2013, 09:00 PM
Yeah nice misquote.

They've certainly tracked your lack of a penis, and all sorts of nauseating egoism, narcissism, and all the worst the west is known for.
Do you think property is in a bubble? Why? Rather than spitting out emotive horse shit, construct an actual argument.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Billy Jack
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The Duke of Brisbane Town

stinkbug
6 Oct 2013, 09:16 PM
Do you think property is in a bubble? Why? Rather than spitting out emotive horse shit, construct an actual argument.
Hello Friend

Let me lend you my thoughts. I believe that we are in a bubble because 90% of the economy is ****ed and will get worse, young folks are realizing that Arts and Business Management degrees are worthless, and property too, when compared to a lifetime of debt, and realize that they are better off living in another country where they can pay 500 USD a month in rent and have a choice of four or five supermarket chains than spend the next 50 years in the casual workforce.

And it's not just one choice. There are dozens of countries where they can go. They have stopped buying. But aspies (aspirationals) from third world countries want to be us, they want to be white, or at the very least like us white folks. So they keep coming and they are prepared to pay anything for it.
Tell Billy Jack the Truth
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herbie
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stinkbug
6 Oct 2013, 09:16 PM
Do you think property is in a bubble? Why? Rather than spitting out emotive horse shit, construct an actual argument.
Shadow does a reasonable job of constructing the argument for us - When he says stuff like "I can't think of anything more logical for house prices to track other than incomes".

As my take on Oz incomes ISN'T that they've doubled since 2002? (And I've simply 'picked' 2002 - specifically March 2002 - As that's when the current ABS housing series starts.) Data on same can be accessed here:

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6416.0Jun%202013?OpenDocument

Though I'm sure he (or Strindberg) will tell me if they reckon I'm wrong and that incomes have doubled since March 2002 ? ... I await your advices gentlemens ... :re:
Edited by herbie, 6 Oct 2013, 10:37 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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stinkbug
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Billy Jack
6 Oct 2013, 10:31 PM
Hello Friend

Let me lend you my thoughts. I believe that we are in a bubble because 90% of the economy is ****ed and will get worse, young folks are realizing that Arts and Business Management degrees are worthless, and property too, when compared to a lifetime of debt, and realize that they are better off living in another country where they can pay 500 USD a month in rent and have a choice of four or five supermarket chains than spend the next 50 years in the casual workforce.

And it's not just one choice. There are dozens of countries where they can go. They have stopped buying. But aspies (aspirationals) from third world countries want to be us, they want to be white, or at the very least like us white folks. So they keep coming and they are prepared to pay anything for it.
Sounds like a wonderful dream, except that with Arts and Business Management degrees they'll be the ones working in those supermarkets for 8 bucks an hour so they can pay 500 a month in rent.

I don't believe 90% of the economy is ****ed either. If it were, how is GDP positive? How is it our interest rates are still so much higher than, say, the US? Why is yield on property in the 2-6% range?

Thanks for your response, but it will take more than "90% of the economy is ****ed" to convince me.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Joey jojo shabadoo
Unregistered

K-town
6 Oct 2013, 02:01 PM
If the average person earns $60K - and I'd expect people who could build houses deserve that - then for a house to cost about $180K then only three people could spend a year building it. And that's not including the cost of the land, taxes or materials.

Doesn't that strike you as sort of unrealistic?

Most trades would really only have 3-5 workers on a house at any one time spread that over a year forvarious trades and that would be 3-5 men per year to complete one house. Neglecting land and material costs
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