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Another bull becomes a bear: Catherine Cashmore finds god?; Enjoy housing boom while it lasts, it won't end without unpleasant consequences
Topic Started: 30 Sep 2013, 11:32 PM (4,910 Views)
Veritas
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Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 12:54 PM
Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 12:45 PM
More people renting for longer as hopes of ownership fade
Australia has one of the highest levels of home ownership in the world.

Our home ownership rate has been relatively steady at 69% (+-2%) for decades, and the rate of household formation is rising...

Posted Image
So how many adults own houses versus those that don't?

Oh, I forgot the "home ownership" stats don't refer to people, they refer to houses.

Accordingly, you cant answer my question.

EDIT: Not for the first time, I get the impression that you aren't really talking to me, but rather a broader audience. You have about ten core messages and wheel the out depending on what line of attack fuckers like me adopt.

If you are not getting paid for this, you should be.

Edited by Veritas, 1 Oct 2013, 01:19 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 01:17 PM
I forgot the "home ownership" stats don't refer to people, they refer to houses
That doesn't surprise me. It took dozens of explanations from many forum members before we got that fact through to you the first time.

Quote:
 
I get the impression that you aren't really talking to me, but rather a broader audience
Yes, because APF has such a huge audience, I should be able to manipulate the housing market quite easily. :re:
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 01:42 PM
That doesn't surprise me. It took dozens of explanations from many forum members before we got that fact through to you the first time.

Yes, because APF has such a huge audience, I should be able to manipulate the housing market quite easily. :re:
ROFL.

What dimwits like Skamy explaining shit to me?

So Shadow, tell me, what percentage of adults own their own home in Australia either individually or as part of a couple?


Sydneyite
1 Oct 2013, 12:53 PM
Veritas - is renting so bad? If house prices are really in a bubble, too high etc, and renting is so much cheaper than buying, with no risk of capital loss etc, aren't those (increasing numbers? Not convinced by the way) of renters doing the "smart" thing in your books? Why does it matter if they choose not to buy? Why does it bother you so much?
You don't hear me complaining about my own lot.

And you wont either.
Edited by Veritas, 1 Oct 2013, 01:51 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 01:47 PM
What dimwits like Skamy explaining shit to me?
Why the unprovoked personal attack on an unrelated member?

Quote:
 
So Shadow, tell me, what percentage of adults own their own home in Australia either individually or as part of a couple?
As far as I know, that specific data isn't available. There doesn't seem to be much demand for that data, otherwise somebody would have funded a survey to collect it. You could always fund a survey yourself, since you seem to the the only person with a great desire to know.

What we do know is that the proportion of owner occupied homes has been around 69% (+-2%) since the late 1950s.
Edited by Shadow, 1 Oct 2013, 01:55 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 01:54 PM
Why the unprovoked personal attack on an unrelated member?

As far as I know, that specific data isn't available. There doesn't seem to be much demand for that data, otherwise somebody would have funded a survey to collect it. You could always fund a survey yourself, since you seem to the the only person with a great desire to know.

What we do know is that the proportion of owner occupied homes has been around 69% (+-2%) since the late 1950s.
Please marry that with:

Number of Group household, up
Number of people renting, up
Number of households comprised of singles and couples with kids renting, up.

Quote:
 
AUSTRALIA experienced a decline in home ownership between 2001 and 2010, with the fall greatest among people aged 35-54. An analysis of Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia surveys finds the home-ownership rate among 35 to 44-year-olds was 4.5 percentage points lower in 2010 than for people of the same age in 2001, while there was a 5.5 percentage point drop for 45 to 54-year-olds between the two surveys. - See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/home-ownership-fast-becoming-a-distant-dream-for-young-people/story-fn9656lz-1226662150989#sthash.SRyKmsEW.dpuf


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/home-ownership-fast-becoming-a-distant-dream-for-young-people/story-fn9656lz-1226662150989#

Quote:
 
Even during the 1990s, the size of the deposit gap meant that a household needed to have
access to at least the equivalent of its annual income (in addition to the amount needed to pay
for transaction costs) in order to purchase a median priced dwelling. By the 2000s, this had risen
to four times annual income. Over time, the average income entry point for access to home
ownership has increased. Figure 10 highlights this by showing how the income needed to service
the average first-home buyer loan has increased more rapidly than average annual earnings since
the mid 1990s.
This increasing constraint on access to housing finance for modest income households has had
a number of effects. In the first place, it has encouraged marginal first-home buyers to borrow
the maximum permitted by their lender. This exposes them to an increased risk of being pushed
into housing stress if either interest rates increase or their household income falls (either through
unemployment or through taking time out for child-bearing and rearing). In the second place, it
has meant that low- to moderate-income households have been squeezed out from the housing
finance market.


Quote:
 
Access to home ownership has been possible for lower-income households only if they have
access to some form of wealth (for example, through assistance provided by parents or from
the government) or if they are prepared to purchase dwellings well below median price. In this
circumstance there can be a trade-off between purchasing a lower-cost home and accessibility
to work, services and social relationships (see, for example, Burnley, Murphy and Jenner (1997, p
1125)). Wood et al (2007) show the retreat of affordable housing to the metropolitan periphery
where employment opportunities are relatively weak, and access to public transport and other
key urban services is relatively poor. In their performance report for 2010, the Council of Australian
Governments (COAG) reported that only 27.5 per cent of dwellings were affordable for households
at the 60 percentile of the income distribution (which puts them above the average income
benchmark used in Figure 10) (COAG Reform Council 2010, p 59).27 These constraints are often
used to explain why many younger households are ‘choosing’ to rent in more desirable locations
.


http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2011/pdf/yates.pdf

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
herbie
Member Avatar


Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 01:54 PM
Why the unprovoked personal attack on an unrelated member?
I'd kind of gotten the impression Skamy has gotten into the regular habit of calling ALL bears idiots? So not totally unprovoked I'd suggest.

And yes, you are drawing a bit of a long bow/being a bit pedantic taking Veritas to task over saying interest rates are at a record low I'd suggest - Think pretty much everyone here could figure out that he meant 'for the last 50 odd years' - Gawd knows it's been noised about enough.
Edited by herbie, 1 Oct 2013, 02:12 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

herbie
1 Oct 2013, 02:09 PM
a bit pedantic taking Veritas to task over saying interest rates are at a record low I'd suggest - Think pretty much everyone here could figure out that he meant 'for the last 50 odd years'
That would be a bizarre interpretation of the word 'record'.
Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 02:06 PM
www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/home-ownership-fast-becoming-a-distant-dream-for-young-people/story-fn9656lz-1226662150989
You have just gone back to step 1. You already posted an article about home ownership becoming a distant dream.

I countered it with ABS data showing Australia has one of the highest rates of home ownership in the world, which has been relatively steady at 69% (+-2%) since the 1950s.

Try advancing the discussing with something new instead of going back to the beginning.

Is there some new point you wish to make (and back up with data, rather than an MSM opinion piece that can be easily refuted by actual ABS data).
Edited by Shadow, 1 Oct 2013, 02:14 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
herbie
Member Avatar


Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 02:11 PM
That would be a bizarre interpretation of the word 'record'
Article heading: "RBA cuts rates to record low"

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-cuts-rates-to-record-low-20130806-2rbps.html
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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skamy
Member Avatar


herbie
1 Oct 2013, 10:51 AM
"ages!" being just how long would you estimate Sydneyite?

Though what's truly incredible isn't so much the fact that she (a buyer's agent who makes her living from property sales as I recall?) has 'turned' but her suggestions as to what "should" be done, including amongst other things:

"our politicians should be moving to restrict policies that encourage disproportionate speculation, such as the tax treatment of negative gearing (which should be phased out) and capital gains, or implementing a transition toward a broad based land tax system which is long over due"

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/housing-affordability/enjoy-the-housing-boom-while-it-lasts-it-won-t-end-without-unpleasant-consequences-catherine-cashmore?utm_source=po&utm_medium=aida&utm_campaign=upperright
She has not "turned" maybe she is spruiking for more government help for buyers as this could effect her hip pocket.

"Oh me oh my poor poor home buyers cannot buy for a: b)and c) reasons. The government needs to act immediately as I need to help my buyers to buy so I can get my commission"
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 02:11 PM
herbie
1 Oct 2013, 02:09 PM
a bit pedantic taking Veritas to task over saying interest rates are at a record low I'd suggest - Think pretty much everyone here could figure out that he meant 'for the last 50 odd years'
That would be a bizarre interpretation of the word 'record'.
Not all.

For example, in sport, we often talk about the modern era.

In this way, we usefully distinguish between the pre and after war period for example.
Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 02:11 PM
That would be a bizarre interpretation of the word 'record'.

You have just gone back to step 1. You already posted an article about home ownership becoming a distant dream.

I countered it with ABS data showing Australia has one of the highest rates of home ownership in the world, which has been relatively steady at 69% (+-2%) since the 1950s.

Try advancing the discussing with something new instead of going back to the beginning.

Is there some new point you wish to make (and back up with data, rather than an MSM opinion piece that can be easily refuted by actual ABS data).
Different data sets.

HILDA data and AHURI research not admissible no?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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