Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 7
Another bull becomes a bear: Catherine Cashmore finds god?; Enjoy housing boom while it lasts, it won't end without unpleasant consequences
Topic Started: 30 Sep 2013, 11:32 PM (4,911 Views)
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 10:59 AM
herbie
1 Oct 2013, 10:51 AM
"ages!" being just how long would you estimate Sydneyite?

Though what's truly incredible isn't so much the fact that she (a buyer's agent who makes her living from property sales as I recall?) has 'turned' but her suggestions as to what "should" be done, including amongst other things:

"our politicians should be moving to restrict policies that encourage disproportionate speculation, such as the tax treatment of negative gearing (which should be phased out) and capital gains, or implementing a transition toward a broad based land tax system which is long over due"
She turned bearish a couple of years ago during the regular cyclical correction.

She got sucked in by the nonsense peddled on Macrobusiness, and mistook the cyclical correction for the beginning of a big crash/melt.

She has painted herself into a corner now, having posted so frequently about her belief in 'The Bubble' that there is no going back.

Now she must churn out a new hand-wringing article every week complaining about how 'The Bubble' is getting bigger and postulating all sorts of pie-in-the-sky 'solutions'.

It has been pointed out to her many times that house prices have simply tracked incomes for the past decade, but she is in too deep now to admit she was wrong.
the regular cyclical correction?

Would this be the correction that occurred after the entirely irregular boom?

Property cycle baby, Yeah!!!
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 11:53 AM
the regular cyclical correction?
Yes, house prices fall every few years - just part of the cycle.

The problem is, each time we have one of these regular cyclical corrections, it breeds a whole new generation of bears who mistake it for the beginning of a crash.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM
Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 11:53 AM
the regular cyclical correction?
Yes, house prices fall every few years - just part of the cycle.

The problem is, each time we have one of these regular cyclical corrections, it breeds a whole new generation of bears who mistake it for the beginning of a crash.
What cycle is this, the cycle in Australia?

Is Australia's cycle unique?

Here are some other cycles.

Ouch!

Posted Image

Posted Image
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
b_b
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM
Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 11:53 AM
the regular cyclical correction?
Yes, house prices fall every few years - just part of the cycle.

The problem is, each time we have one of these regular cyclical corrections, it breeds a whole new generation of bears who mistake it for the beginning of a crash.
It can be a good business model if you are patient.

Just keep on the bear tact for everything (shares property, bonds, etc), and some event will "prove you right". Everyone seems to forget the thousand times you have got it wrong.

Look at Rubini, and Hyman Minsky, Godley, Schiff etc. Constantly preaching doom and gloom and when a correction occurs (which is inevitable) they are seen as "Cassandras". But no-one remembers the opportunity cost of missing the upside.

The real cost is for their followers - a liftime living in fear, and ending up financially repressed.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


b_b
1 Oct 2013, 12:29 PM
Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM
Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 11:53 AM
the regular cyclical correction?
Yes, house prices fall every few years - just part of the cycle.

The problem is, each time we have one of these regular cyclical corrections, it breeds a whole new generation of bears who mistake it for the beginning of a crash.
It can be a good business model if you are patient.

Just keep on the bear tact for everything (shares property, bonds, etc), and some event will "prove you right". Everyone seems to forget the thousand times you have got it wrong.

Look at Rubini, and Hyman Minsky, Godley, Schiff etc. Constantly preaching doom and gloom and when a correction occurs (which is inevitable) they are seen as "Cassandras". But no-one remembers the opportunity cost of missing the upside.

The real cost is for their followers - a liftime living in fear, and ending up financially repressed.
Most people don't even know who Nouriel Roubini is B_B.

And most people are not trading stocks and shares.

This is about how our economic system and the housing system serves the people who just work for a living. In other words, the vast majority.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 12:32 PM
This is about how our economic system and the housing system serves the people who just work for a living. In other words, the vast majority.
The vast majority of adults in Australia own a house, so the economic system and housing system seems to serve the majority well.

And nearly anyone with a job can join that majority if they choose.

You could join that majority too if you wanted to.

But you painted yourself into a corner by deciding your home market of Perth was in a bubble two years ago.

You thought it was a bubble then, and you waited for prices to crash before buying, no doubt this view was reinforced by people like Catherine Cashmore and Macrobusiness.

But now Perth house prices are 12% higher than they were two years ago, and you need prices to crash in order to vindicate your decision not to buy.

So you are painted into a corner, destined to complain endlessly on internet forums about the unfairness of it all because prices stubbornly refuse to crash.
Edited by Shadow, 1 Oct 2013, 12:41 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
b_b
Default APF Avatar


Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 12:32 PM
Most people don't even know who Nouriel Roubini is B_B.

And most people are not trading stocks and shares.

This is about how our economic system and the housing system serves the people who just work for a living. In other words, the vast majority.
I'm just saying I disagree with Shadow. Most high profile Bears are not making mistakes - I think they are very deliberate in their actions.

Thats all.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Shadow
1 Oct 2013, 12:40 PM
Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 12:32 PM
This is about how our economic system and the housing system serves the people who just work for a living. In other words, the vast majority.
The vast majority of adults in Australia own a house, so the economic system and housing system seems to serve the majority well.

And nearly anyone with a job can join that majority if they choose.

You could join that majority too if you wanted to.

But you painted yourself into a corner by deciding your home market of Perth was in a bubble two years ago.

You thought it was a bubble then, and you waited for prices to crash before buying, no doubt this view was reinforced by people like Catherine Cashmore and Macrobusiness.

But now Perth house prices are 12% higher than they were two years ago, and you need prices to crash in order to vindicate your decision not to buy.

So you are painted into a corner, destined to complain endlessly on internet forums about the unfairness of it all because prices stubbornly refuse to crash.
Mate, you haven't a clue what my circumstances are.

I haven't bought a house for a whole host of reasons.

Its like that.

Good article on our wonderful egalitarian housing market here for your perusal. Your thoughts are welcome.

More people renting for longer as hopes of ownership fade

Quote:
 
More than 1.8 million Australian households rent, and a third have done so for more than 10 years, says new research showing the dream of home ownership is slipping away for many.

Renting is no longer temporary but permanent for increasing numbers of people, who have been priced out of the housing market, finds the study commissioned by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

''It represents a sea change in the psyche in Australian home ownership and the great Australian dream. We are slowly but surely witnessing a change in that dream,'' said Dr Wendy Stone, the director of AHURI Swinburne Research centre and a co-author of the research to be presented to the Australian Social Policy Conference at University of NSW on Wednesday.

Thirty per cent of renters say they are likely to move within the next 12 months. Fifty-two per cent say do not want to move.

Advertisement

The number of families with dependent children who rent has risen from around 30 per cent of all renters in 1981 to nearly 40 per cent. Nearly half of all renters are in the lowest income groups.
''Growing up in private rental and having a short-term lease, and having to move three or four times, is a very undesirable childhood. It is a poor way to house Australian children and expect good outcomes,'' Dr Stone said.

About half of long-term renters were 30-44, and 30 per cent were 45-64. Dr Stone said the potential cost of this older group was a ''policy bomb waiting to go off''
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Sydneyite
Member Avatar


Veritas - is renting so bad? If house prices are really in a bubble, too high etc, and renting is so much cheaper than buying, with no risk of capital loss etc, aren't those (increasing numbers? Not convinced by the way) of renters doing the "smart" thing in your books? Why does it matter if they choose not to buy? Why does it bother you so much?
Edited by Sydneyite, 1 Oct 2013, 12:55 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
1 Oct 2013, 12:45 PM
More people renting for longer as hopes of ownership fade
Australia has one of the highest levels of home ownership in the world.

Our home ownership rate has been relatively steady at 69% (+-2%) for decades, and the rate of household formation is rising...

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 1 Oct 2013, 12:56 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums. Reliable service with over 8 years of experience.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 7



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy