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It Looks Like We're Headed To A US Government Shutdown
Topic Started: 29 Sep 2013, 07:54 AM (8,862 Views)
newjez
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It is possible the credit rating will fall again. tbh - I never thought they would push it this far.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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b_b
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newjez
1 Oct 2013, 04:00 PM
It is possible the credit rating will fall again. tbh - I never thought they would push it this far.
Same here.

The bad news is the market is not treating this as bad news.

That means congress will not perceive any urgency and will drag its feet. This may go one for a while (or at least until the market craps itself).

4Q gdp could be pretty weak.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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MMM
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peter fraser
29 Sep 2013, 07:54 AM
It Looks Like We're Headed To A Government Shutdown
Link

Top House Republican sources tell Politico that the “most likely” move for the House GOP is to move a bill that includes a one-year delay in the Affordable Care Act.

When asked if that means shutdown, a Senate Democratic leadership aide said, “Yup.” The government runs out of funding after Sept. 30.

The Senate passed a so-called “clean” continuing resolution on Friday, which would keep the government funded through Nov. 15. But it also strips out language from the original House-passed bill that defunds Obamacare. House Republican aides have said it’s unlikely that the House will move this bill.

Senate Majority Harry Reid has said that the Senate won’t pass anything that delays or defunds the health-care law — or even anything that “relates to Obamacare.”

For the House, the other option is to pass an extremely short-term extension that would keep the government funded for another week or two. This is the only option currently being discussed in the House that Senate Democrats haven’t flatly rejected.

Because of the legislative ping-pong between the House and Senate and the significant differences, there might not be enough time to avert a shutdown.
Maybe you could link this thread to one of your many "US economy improving" threads Peter :pop:

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stinkbug
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MMM
1 Oct 2013, 07:07 PM
Maybe you could link this thread to one of your many "US economy improving" threads Peter :pop:
Do you even understand what is going on here? This comment suggests that you have no idea.
Edited by stinkbug, 1 Oct 2013, 07:53 PM.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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miw
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b_b
1 Oct 2013, 07:05 PM
Same here.

The bad news is the market is not treating this as bad news.

That means congress will not perceive any urgency and will drag its feet. This may go one for a while (or at least until the market craps itself).

4Q gdp could be pretty weak.
The market is much more focussed on the debt ceiling.

I tend to think the analysts who are saying that the GOP is smelling so bad over the shutdown that they may not have the will to force a big fight on the debt ceiling, which is there strategists *wanted* to have the fight migh be onto something, bt we'll see over the next few weeks I guess.

S&P futures are up at the moment.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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MMM
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stinkbug
1 Oct 2013, 07:52 PM
MMM
1 Oct 2013, 07:07 PM
Maybe you could link this thread to one of your many "US economy improving" threads Peter :pop:
Do you even understand what is going on here? This comment suggests that you have no idea.
Really....

It involves mindless governors whinging about how they will spend (waste)money they dont have this time round,because they have already spent all they have on their previous mindless spending ways while screwing their economy into the ground. and now need to borrow to infinaty no matter what side they are on.

come to think of it stinky, maybe we should think more about how we spend our money here, maybe we could outsource government jobs to overseas, pay them only $2 an hour to sit around jibbering shit while doing nothing instead of the hundreds of thousands we pay them here to sit around jibbering shit while achieving nothing but further erosion of our economy. we could save a lot of taxpayer funded dollars outsourcing jobs we dont need , better still lets just reduce their numbers to about 1/10 of what they are now, thats propbably about all we really need anyway.

The point stinky ,is that it is just a further demise of confidence in their economy which is already struggling, not sure how your reading things but feel free to let us know.

Here I just found this for you below, you can all take from it what you will

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/30/government-shutdown-healthcare-spending-analysis
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goldbug
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stinkbug
1 Oct 2013, 07:52 PM
MMM
1 Oct 2013, 07:07 PM
Maybe you could link this thread to one of your many "US economy improving" threads Peter :pop:
Do you even understand what is going on here? This comment suggests that you have no idea.
Of course he understands, his head isn't buried in a televion set. If you rely on the mass media to keep you informed of world events you will spend your life on an emotional roller coaster and always be 3 steps behind. Personally I don't give a toss about what happens over there there short of them starting a nuclear war. That is because it wont effect me. My wealth is insulated now, and I'm not talking about the portion in gold either.

Anyone pinning their hopes on the global economy reverting to the glory days of the pre-2000's will be sorely disappointed. It is obvious that we entered a new system over a decade ago and all the old thinking needs to be tossed in the trash can. Housing is a classic example. For the 30 years prior, it doubled in price every ten years with wages lagging but keeping up. The doubling after 2000 took only 7 years and wages never matched their rise. If it wasn't for the speculator community rushing in it would have never got there either. I'm talking about personal wages here, not the bullshit household income metric used to mask the fact that wages have stagnated.

That is just one change. That old system began after the world went to a floating exchange system in the early 1970's. It was based on compounding debt and it has played it's course.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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stinkbug
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This issue is nothing more than political posturing. It's exactly as if our government couldn't agree on the budget, and thus wouldn't pass the legislation.

The debt ceiling issue in a couple of weeks, however, is another matter all together.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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mango66
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Tony abbott will be stopping boats from another direction soon. Thie US is a country being run like a bad business. Its destined to fail. At 16 Trillion in debt and growing id be very worried if they default. The shockwaves would have to affect Australias economy.
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peter fraser
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Quote:
 
MORGAN STANLEY: Now That The Government Has Shut Down, Here Are 4 Things To Expect
Link here
Sam Ro Today 7:59 PM

Morgan Stanley’s Vincent Reinhart published a note minutes after the U.S. government shutdown went into effect.

Here’s the key excerpt:


In addition to finger pointing to assign blame, expect:

* A 15 basis point drag on fourth-quarter real GDP growth, at an annual rate, for every week of shutdown as those furloughed workers do not put in their usual hours;
* Most data releases to be delayed, including the employment situation for September that was scheduled to be out on Friday, October 4;
* The quality of some official data to degrade as the shutdown lengthens because workers will not be in the field to collect the raw information;
* All Treasury payments to be processed, including principal and interest, as its fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve, remains open for business.

“In the back-and-forth of legislative action, the ball is now in Speaker John Boehner’s court,” added Reinhart. “The heat will build on politicians from constituents who were furloughed, inconvenienced, or fearful of market consequences. That is why we believe the odds favour a short event — over in one week.”
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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