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It Looks Like We're Headed To A US Government Shutdown
Topic Started: 29 Sep 2013, 07:54 AM (8,851 Views)
peter fraser
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It Looks Like We're Headed To A Government Shutdown
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Top House Republican sources tell Politico that the “most likely” move for the House GOP is to move a bill that includes a one-year delay in the Affordable Care Act.

When asked if that means shutdown, a Senate Democratic leadership aide said, “Yup.” The government runs out of funding after Sept. 30.

The Senate passed a so-called “clean” continuing resolution on Friday, which would keep the government funded through Nov. 15. But it also strips out language from the original House-passed bill that defunds Obamacare. House Republican aides have said it’s unlikely that the House will move this bill.

Senate Majority Harry Reid has said that the Senate won’t pass anything that delays or defunds the health-care law — or even anything that “relates to Obamacare.”

For the House, the other option is to pass an extremely short-term extension that would keep the government funded for another week or two. This is the only option currently being discussed in the House that Senate Democrats haven’t flatly rejected.

Because of the legislative ping-pong between the House and Senate and the significant differences, there might not be enough time to avert a shutdown.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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goldbug
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The Government members voting to shutdown and not be able to pay their own salaries, fund their own junkets and staff and limos? I doubt that lol lol. They won't shutdown until the pitchforks are at the gates.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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peter fraser
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goldbug
29 Sep 2013, 08:05 AM
The Government members voting to shutdown and not be able to pay their own salaries, fund their own junkets and staff and limos? I doubt that lol lol. They won't shutdown until the pitchforks are at the gates.
Oh the politicians will still get paid.

Stop complaining, this will give gold and other fear driven assets a short term boost.
Quote:
 
Your False-Equivalence Guide to the Days Ahead
A kind of politics we have not seen for more than 150 years
James FallowsSep 27 2013, 12:15 PM ET
Link
Two big examples of problematic self-government are upon us. They are of course the possible partial shutdown of the federal government, following the long-running hamstringing of public functions via "the sequester"; and a possible vote not to raise the federal debt ceiling, which would create the prospect of a default on U.S. Treasury debt.

The details are complicated, but please don't lose sight of these three essential points:

•As a matter of substance, constant-shutdown, permanent-emergency governance is so destructive that no other serious country engages in or could tolerate it. The United States can afford it only because we are -- still -- so rich, with so much margin for waste and error. Details on this and other items below.*

•As a matter of politics, this is different from anything we learned about in classrooms or expected until the past few years. We're used to thinking that the most important disagreements are between the major parties, not within one party; and that disagreements over policies, goals, tactics can be addressed by negotiation or compromise.

This time, the fight that matters is within the Republican party, and that fight is over whether compromise itself is legitimate.** Outsiders to this struggle -- the president and his administration, Democratic legislators as a group, voters or "opinion leaders" outside the generally safe districts that elected the new House majority -- have essentially no leverage over the outcome. I can't recall any situation like this in my own experience, and the only even-approximate historic parallel (with obvious differences) is the inability of Northern/free-state opinion to affect the debate within the slave-state South from the 1840s onward. Nor is there a conceivable "compromise" the Democrats could offer that would placate the other side.

•As a matter of journalism, any story that presents the disagreements as a "standoff," a "showdown," a "failure of leadership," a sign of "partisan gridlock," or any of the other usual terms for political disagreement, represents a failure of journalism*** and an inability to see or describe what is going on. For instance: the "dig in their heels" headline you see below, which is from a proprietary newsletter I read this morning, and about which I am leaving off the identifying details.

This isn't "gridlock." It is a ferocious struggle within one party, between its traditionalists and its radical factions, with results that unfortunately can harm all the rest of us -- and, should there be a debt default, could harm the rest of the world too.
Edited by peter fraser, 29 Sep 2013, 08:19 AM.
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peter fraser
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Here's How The Stock Market Reacted To The Last Government Shutdown
Sam Ro 27 September 2013 5:36 AM

If Congress can’t agree on a budget soon, we may witness a government shutdown.

But that doesn’t mean all hell will break loose.

“In the event of a government shutdown, functions of the federal government considered “non-essential” cease while “essential” functions continue,” write Barclays’ Michael Gapen and Michael Gavin. “Our economists estimate that for every week the government is shut down, real federal government consumption and gross investment falls 1.6% q/q saar and quarterly real GDP growth declines 0.1pp. This is consistent with the CBO’s estimate that the approximately four-week shutdown in 1995-96 reduced growth 0.5pp in Q4 95. Thus, a short federal government shutdown is unlikely to dampen real GDP growth significantly and adverse market reactions are more likely to be short-lived.”

“The market reaction to the relatively short 1995-96 government shutdown was mild (Figure 1),” they added. “A longer shutdown, however, could have negative indirect effects on private sector activity and market sentiment.”

The 1995-96 shutdown was actually the longest of the 17 government shutdowns since at least 1976.

Regardless, it would be important for any shutdown to be resolved quickly.
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Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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miw
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peter fraser
29 Sep 2013, 07:54 AM
It Looks Like We're Headed To A Government Shutdown
Link

Top House Republican sources tell Politico that the “most likely” move for the House GOP is to move a bill that includes a one-year delay in the Affordable Care Act.

When asked if that means shutdown, a Senate Democratic leadership aide said, “Yup.” The government runs out of funding after Sept. 30.

The Senate passed a so-called “clean” continuing resolution on Friday, which would keep the government funded through Nov. 15. But it also strips out language from the original House-passed bill that defunds Obamacare. House Republican aides have said it’s unlikely that the House will move this bill.

Senate Majority Harry Reid has said that the Senate won’t pass anything that delays or defunds the health-care law — or even anything that “relates to Obamacare.”

For the House, the other option is to pass an extremely short-term extension that would keep the government funded for another week or two. This is the only option currently being discussed in the House that Senate Democrats haven’t flatly rejected.

Because of the legislative ping-pong between the House and Senate and the significant differences, there might not be enough time to avert a shutdown.
I think they have another 2 weeks to come up with something to avoid a shutdown. It's going t be tight.

The big problem here is actually disunity on the Republican side. The more traditional Republicans fully realise that the public will blame them for any shutdown and that a shutdown could well cost them control of the house in the 2014 mid-term elections, so they want to deal. The problem they have is the Tea Party faction who do not want any sort of deal and are hell-bent on causing a shutdown. It seems the strategy from Speaker Boehner and his crew is to let the Tea Party have their no compromise bill go through the house and get shot down in the Senate, which has now happened. Then, with honour satisfied, centrist Republicans and Democrats can work together to get a continuation motion and debt limit increase bill through the house that can pass the Senate and not get vetoed. The main issue is time, and of course the Tea Party has been all-out to make the time for compromise as short as possible. Hence the crazy spectacle of Tea Party Members in the Senate reading Dr. Suess books to the Senate for 18 hours straight to chew up time.

Until now, neither Obama nor Speaker Boehner have had any reason to even hint at a deal, hence the staunch and inflexible rhetoric. It will be interesting to see what happens this week now that Boehner is freed up to deal. Obama and the Democrats have no reason to move an inch until Boehner does, because everything is going their way at the moment.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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mango66
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Looks like the tourists will be taking photos only of the Statue of Liberty in a few days. America is in one big debt mess.
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peter fraser
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mango66
1 Oct 2013, 09:11 AM
Looks like the tourists will be taking photos only of the Statue of Liberty in a few days. America is in one big debt mess.
Well they will have to take their photos from the Staten Island ferry because the Statue of Liberty will also be closed down, as will every national park in the USA. Maybe from Battery Point with a powerful telephoto lense if you like side views.

Even passports and Visas will cease to be processed, rubbish won't be collected in many areas, etc etc etc.

It will have at least some negative impact on every person living in the USA and the Tea Party section of the Republicans will smell to the high heaven once this is over.

A lot of financial analysts are actually happy that they have done this, because they calculate that the Republicans won't do it again with the debt ceiling, also coming up for elevation shortly.

The Republicans will cop such a hiding in the press and the polls that they won't be game to do it twice in succession if they want to lead the country again in the next decade or two.

This is the politics of stupidity and the Republicans will pay dearly for the Tea Party set.
Edited by peter fraser, 1 Oct 2013, 09:30 AM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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miw
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peter fraser
1 Oct 2013, 09:28 AM
Well they will have to take their photos from the Staten Island ferry because the Statue of Liberty will also be closed down, as will every national park in the USA. Maybe from Battery Point with a powerful telephoto lense if you like side views.

Even passports and Visas will cease to be processed, rubbish won't be collected in many areas, etc etc etc.

It will have at least some negative impact on every person living in the USA and the Tea Party section of the Republicans will smell to the high heaven once this is over.

A lot of financial analysts are actually happy that they have done this, because they calculate that the Republicans won't do it again with the debt ceiling, also coming up for elevation shortly.

The Republicans will cop such a hiding in the press and the polls that they won't be game to do it twice in succession if they want to lead the country again in the next decade or two.

This is the politics of stupidity and the Republicans will pay dearly for the Tea Party set.
Looks like some kind of shutdown is going to happen. It's been a while since one has happened, but they have happened plenty of times in the past.

The markets last night were a bit up and down, but considering there was also negative news coming out of Europe and Asia it was not a big reaction. My portfolio was even up at one point. If anything substantive happens in the next few days it is even possible it will soar, especially if it makes it look as if the debt ceiling negotiations will get pushed forward.

The GOP are really between a rock and a hard place on this. Their disunity is really being shown up.

The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Catweasel
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Catweasel say strange.

A Nikkei doing the just fine.

And it one of most useful guage of a emotion.

And rapscalls more intrigued by anti-narrative blog than shutdown of master mechanism.

Storm in teacup.

But mouse react in strange way in a 2013.
Edited by Catweasel, 1 Oct 2013, 02:32 PM.
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stinkbug
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With 20 minutes to go I'd say shutdown is more likely than not. This really sucks for the 800,000 or so people trying to live their lives who won't be working tomorrow.
Now in shutdown...

http://politicslive.cnn.com/Event/Liver_Federal_government_shutdown_looms?hpt=hp_t1
Edited by stinkbug, 1 Oct 2013, 03:04 PM.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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