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RBA enormously worried about Australian house price surge, but won't admit it; House prices are popping, Sydney is going berserk
Topic Started: 26 Sep 2013, 05:04 PM (8,087 Views)
Veritas
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Pig Iron
27 Sep 2013, 06:42 PM
aww come on now. just because i gave you a spanking at the start of the thread doesn't mean we can't be chums.

i read all your bullshit after all, when i could just go to macrobusiness and read the non regurgitated version...
Timmy, if you actually contributed something to the debate other than a range of ignorant right wing views and snide remarks, I would be more inclined to engage with you.

But that's all you do.

Up your game or fck off.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Massive
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Veritas
27 Sep 2013, 06:29 PM
So, if the mums and dads start to question that the path the riches lies in buying and selling houses to each other, and demand drops off, you can expect it it to translate into lower prices too.
yep, so .. as i joked before it may be becoming a run-away train scenario...

we arent there yet... but its getting close.. and the throttle is jammed at the moment... need to grease it up and pull it back without scaring the passengers..

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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Veritas
27 Sep 2013, 06:46 PM
Timmy, if you actually contributed something to the debate other than a range of ignorant right wing views and snide remarks, I would be more inclined to engage with you.

But that's all you do.

Up your game or fck off.
the problem is your definition of engage is when you hear what you want to hear. any dissenting view is immediately dismissed by you.

you've had it explained to you multiple times at great length that capital is not locked up by housing investment but you STILL insist on trotting out that line every chance you get. to continue to try reason with you would be the very definition of insanity.

i've tried on many occasions to share my knowledge on various topics but as soon as the bears hear something they don't like i'm immediately branded an uber bull and dismissed, so really you can blame yourself and your cronies for the provocation you get - you've really left nothing else worthwhile.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Veritas
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Pig Iron
27 Sep 2013, 07:12 PM
the problem is your definition of engage is when you hear what you want to hear. any dissenting view is immediately dismissed by you.

you've had it explained to you multiple times at great length that capital is not locked up by housing investment but you STILL insist on trotting out that line every chance you get. to continue to try reason with you would be the very definition of insanity.

i've tried on many occasions to share my knowledge on various topics but as soon as the bears hear something they don't like i'm immediately branded an uber bull and dismissed, so really you can blame yourself and your cronies for the provocation you get - you've really left nothing else worthwhile.
Not by you.
My description of your pee brained contributions are only too accurate.

Timmy, the point I made was about the opportunity cost of housing investment.

Other people then want to bang on about how loans are created and destroyed nothing to do with the point I am making.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Veritas
27 Sep 2013, 07:16 PM
Not by you.
My description of your pee brained contributions are only too accurate.

Timmy, the point I made was about the opportunity cost of housing investment.

Other people then want to bang on about how loans are created and destroyed nothing to do with the point I am making.
ugh.

someone investing in a house is not at the expense of someone else's opportunity. the concept of opportunity cost is applied when comparing investment choices, say bank interest vs a house. if i spend 1 million on a house it doesn't prevent the next guy spending a million to start a business.

it is MY opportunity cost, not the next guys.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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miw
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Veritas
27 Sep 2013, 06:29 PM
So, if the mums and dads start to question that the path the riches lies in buying and selling houses to each other, and demand drops off, you can expect it it to translate into lower prices too.
Not while prices are below or close to replacement value and the population is growing. Or at least, not for long. Someone else will step in in place of the mums and dads.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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b_b
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miw
27 Sep 2013, 08:16 PM
Not while prices are below or close to replacement value and the population is growing. Or at least, not for long. Someone else will step in in place of the mums and dads.
Or rents will increase relative to price so mums and dads become interested again
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Massive
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if mums and dads pull out of the market ( which is highly unlikely IMO ) then smart money will let the prices fall through panic selling and take it when they think its a good buy ... Just as it has done in the US...

rents would join the freefall....

but thats pie in the sky stuff at the moment...
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miw
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Massive
27 Sep 2013, 08:32 PM
if mums and dads pull out of the market ( which is highly unlikely IMO ) then smart money will let the prices fall through panic selling and take it when they think its a good buy ... Just as it has done in the US...

rents would join the freefall....

but thats pie in the sky stuff at the moment...
Unless the population is falling or the area is becoming less desirable in some other way, or incomes are falling, rents will not fall. If new supply is constrained for any length of time they will rise quite sharply.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Massive
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miw
27 Sep 2013, 08:49 PM
Unless the population is falling or the area is becoming less desirable in some other way, or incomes are falling, rents will not fall. If new supply is constrained for any length of time they will rise quite sharply.
yeah.. im making the assumption that if it comes to mums and dads pulling out ... incomes are falling, unemployment rising, and renters are disappearing ... mum and dads arent going to pull out otherwise ....

thats why its unlikely IMO... need the perfect storm of shit market conditions.
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