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What Hard Landing? Chinese Manufacturing Index Hits A 6-Month High For August
Topic Started: 23 Sep 2013, 08:16 PM (1,600 Views)
peter fraser
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WHAT HARD LANDING? Chinese Manufacturing Index Hits A 6-Month High For August
Joe Weisenthal
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Just out. China’s Flash PMI Has Risen to 51.2 from 50.1 in August.

This is a 6-month high, and further confirmation of the general trend that the Chinese “Hard Landing” is not happening.

Via Markit, here are the key charts for the main index, and for the Production Index.

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Edited by peter fraser, 23 Sep 2013, 08:20 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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genX
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Oh the things you can do with 85 billion per month. Of course, in the last 3 years at least, Chinese PMI has tracked PBOC liquidity injections pretty closely. After the near Lehman moment a month or so ago the PBOC turned the printing presses back on, and viola! Who could have known that productivity growth and improvements in standard of living could be as easy as printing money! All that time, effort and resources wasted on science and technology!

Central Banks of the world, whatever you do, DON'T STOP NOW. The end of the last 100 year credit cycle saw those with cash buying assets at pennies on the dollar.
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peter fraser
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http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/sep/China_flash_PMI_13_09_23.pdf

China manufacturing
Manufacturing PMI hits six-month high in September
 Flash manufacturing PMI rises for second
month running to 51.2 in September
 Export order book growth revives
 Job shedding eases
China’s manufacturing economy showed a return to
growth in September, according to the HSBC flash PMI
produced by Markit. The PMI rose for a second
successive month, rising further from July’s near postcrisis
low of 47.7, up from 50.1 in August to 51.2. The
latest reading signalled the strongest monthly
improvement in business conditions since March.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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willy_nilly
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peter fraser
23 Sep 2013, 09:06 PM
http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/sep/China_flash_PMI_13_09_23.pdf

China manufacturing
Manufacturing PMI hits six-month high in September
 Flash manufacturing PMI rises for second
month running to 51.2 in September
 Export order book growth revives
 Job shedding eases
China’s manufacturing economy showed a return to
growth in September, according to the HSBC flash PMI
produced by Markit. The PMI rose for a second
successive month, rising further from July’s near postcrisis
low of 47.7, up from 50.1 in August to 51.2. The
latest reading signalled the strongest monthly
improvement in business conditions since March.
All while you ignore the China participation rate. Smart.
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genX
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peter fraser
23 Sep 2013, 09:06 PM
http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-economics/2013/sep/China_flash_PMI_13_09_23.pdf

China manufacturing
Manufacturing PMI hits six-month high in September
 Flash manufacturing PMI rises for second
month running to 51.2 in September
 Export order book growth revives
 Job shedding eases
China’s manufacturing economy showed a return to
growth in September, according to the HSBC flash PMI
produced by Markit. The PMI rose for a second
successive month, rising further from July’s near postcrisis
low of 47.7, up from 50.1 in August to 51.2. The
latest reading signalled the strongest monthly
improvement in business conditions since March.
Yes, there is generally a lag between easing and PMI. PMI is a trailing indicator of PBOC/Fed stimulus. Surprising that domestic monetary policy had a greater effect than SepTaper concerns. That might be an indicator of a shift from exports to domestic consumption, unfortunately it could also be an indicator that GDP growth is now stimulus driven.
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/09/22/china-corporates-not-making-debt-payments/
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peter fraser
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genX
23 Sep 2013, 09:22 PM
Yes, there is generally a lag between easing and PMI. PMI is a trailing indicator of PBOC/Fed stimulus. Surprising that domestic monetary policy had a greater effect than SepTaper concerns. That might be an indicator of a shift from exports to domestic consumption, unfortunately it could also be an indicator that GDP growth is now stimulus driven.
Then why did exports rise?

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A Good Sign That China's Recovery Is Real


Joe Weisenthal Today 8:30 PM

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Chinese data has been improving lately, but some have expressed concern that this is only because the government is pumping more credit into the system, and engaging in infrastructure investment at a time when there’s already too much spare capacity.

That may be an issue, but as Markit’s Chris Williamson notes on Twitter, Chinese exports are back on the rise, per the latest Flash PMI survey.
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Edited by peter fraser, 23 Sep 2013, 09:48 PM.
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miw
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peter fraser
23 Sep 2013, 09:26 PM
Then why did exports rise?

Exports are rising because Europe is buying more stuff. This is also showing up in the Baltic Dry Index. The EU, if you count it all together, is China's largest trading partner.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Ned Flanders
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ooops ... deleted ....
:bh:
Edited by Ned Flanders, 23 Sep 2013, 10:06 PM.
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" ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility."
- Alan Glynn
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peter fraser
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miw
23 Sep 2013, 09:53 PM
Exports are rising because Europe is buying more stuff. This is also showing up in the Baltic Dry Index. The EU, if you count it all together, is China's largest trading partner.
That makes sense. The news from Europe is also looking much better. I've earlier seen data from France and Germany - both up with France again in positive PMI territory. Even the lesser euro nations have lifted.


willy_nilly
23 Sep 2013, 09:13 PM
All while you ignore the China participation rate. Smart.
Employment in China has lifted.
Edited by peter fraser, 23 Sep 2013, 10:19 PM.
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