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Chris Joye: Only fools ignore bubble trouble
Topic Started: 20 Sep 2013, 05:22 PM (6,492 Views)
Sydneyite
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CSI
23 Sep 2013, 09:09 PM
Way to misinterpret. How many service workers live in central London, or on Manhattan island?

But central London or Manhattan are only fairly small areas compared with all of Sydney. If you were comparing central Sydney maybe, but something's not right if the median price for all of Sydney hits a million dollars. You mentioned service workers being forced to rent, but if median property prices are so high median rents are likely to be very high too. Probably unaffordable for lower paid workers unless two families or several singles share the same small unit. Or unless they commute very long distances every day. Supply is obviously constrained in Sydney, but its constrained in a lot of other world cities too, so why should Sydney's prices be so extraordinarily high?
You are focusing on *houses* only with this $1M median talk. Sydney median houses will be $1M in the not too distant future. Service workers etc will live in apartments, which tend to be more centrally located and cost half what houses cost in the same area. Something like 40% of Sydney dwellings are units and townhouses now, and this proportion is increasing with the bulk of new development being focussed on this property type.

When you take your blinkers off and consider the above, overlay the population growth factor etc, it *is* inevitible what is going to happen.

As to Sydney being compared to NYC/London, it's a fair comparison. In the local context, Sydney *is* to Australia what NYC is to the USA. In the global context, Sydney is an "Alpha+ Global City", sitting only one tier below the "Alpha++" cities like NYC (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city).

Quote:
 
Alpha++ cities are New York City and London, which are vastly more integrated with the global economy than any other cities
Alpha+ cities complement London and New York by filling advanced service niches for the global economy.
Sydney bashers love to deride the status of the city, but the economic facts around this are undeniable, including the real estate market aspects. Eg, why do you think so many rich Chinese (nationals and ex-pats) want to park their money in real estate here?
Edited by Sydneyite, 24 Sep 2013, 12:43 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Catweasel
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Sydneyite
24 Sep 2013, 12:09 PM
You are focusing on *houses* only with this $1M median talk. Sydney median houses will be $1M in the not too distant future. Service workers etc will live in apartments, which tend to be more centrally located and cost half what houses cost in the same area. Something like 40% of Sydney dwellings are units and townhouses now, and this proportion is increasing with the bulk of new development being focussed on this property type.

When you take your blinkers off and consider the above, overlay the population growth factor etc, it *is* inevitible what is going to happen.

As to Sydney being compared to NYC/London, it's a fair comparison. In the local context, Sydney *is* to Australia what NYC is to the USA. In the global context, Sydney is an "Alpha+ Global City", sitting only one tier below the "Alpha++" cities like NYC (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city).




Sydney bashers love to deride the status of the city, but the economic facts around this are undeniable, including the real estate market aspects. Eg, why do you think so many rich Chinese want to park their money in real estate here?
Goodness the grief.

Another rapscall claiming to prophecy a future.

Because it read a Wikipedia.

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Catweasel
24 Sep 2013, 12:26 PM
Goodness the grief.

Another rapscall claiming to prophecy a future.

Because it read a Wikipedia.
Don't need wikipedia to know a positive cpi inflation target means the median in sydney and every city will hit 1$ million

Inevitable

It's no more prophecy than predicting tomorrow will be wednesday
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Catweasel
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24 Sep 2013, 12:34 PM
Don't need wikipedia to know a positive cpi inflation target means the median in sydney and every city will hit 1$ million

Inevitable

It's no more prophecy than predicting tomorrow will be wednesday
Catweasel laugh.

Yes, all it need is well worn narrative that can do a apply to english speak world that mouse can comprehend with linear.
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Catweasel
24 Sep 2013, 12:45 PM
Catweasel laugh.
Why?

Quote:
 
Yes, all it need is well worn narrative that can do a apply to english speak world that mouse can comprehend with linear.
???

You're overcomplicating it

All you need is basic level math, this might help you

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function

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Catweasel
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24 Sep 2013, 12:55 PM
Why?


???

You're overcomplicating it

All you need is basic level math, this might help you

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function
It best if narrative embedded in the exponential,

but expressed in a linear.

Much the easier for flock to express.
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mel
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Catweasel
24 Sep 2013, 12:26 PM
Goodness the grief.

Another rapscall claiming to prophecy a future.

Because it read a Wikipedia.
face it Cat - we should have both bought flippers in Sydney when i first suggested it 6 months ago.

You should now look at lake wendouree for easy short to medium gains. :oo:
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Catweasel
24 Sep 2013, 01:05 PM
It best if narrative embedded in the exponential,

but expressed in a linear.

Much the easier for flock to express.
Assume this is you conceding sydneyite is right, and your original comment was unwarranted
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Catweasel
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24 Sep 2013, 01:12 PM
Assume this is you conceding sydneyite is right, and your original comment was unwarranted
Mouse is 100 pc right all of a time,

Until it the wrong.

But it equip with skill for it to estimate how much a timber it need to build white picket fence.

For it to frame a future without construct or what it read on herald sun throw mouse into flock devoid of freedom and safety.

No the harm done if master keep it penned by white picket.
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Massive
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Thinking sydney can be considered at same status as a global financial capital is pipe dream for now. Most international financial websites don't even track the ASX on their home pages- there's no point.. it typically follows everyone else in the region and on top of that money is continually being pulled out to be invested in highly spruiked property market.

There's much bigger fish in this timezone - with a lot more capital where the big money will do their day jobs.

If property gets $ for $ with central New York, its time to sell..
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