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Chris Joye: Only fools ignore bubble trouble
Topic Started: 20 Sep 2013, 05:22 PM (6,494 Views)
stinkbug
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CSI
23 Sep 2013, 01:51 PM
"Note that a Sydney median house price of approx. $1M by end of 2015 is NOT a bubble."

This sounds absurd to me. Is your median Sydney house really worth a million dollars? (2015 is less than 2 years away). What is the median income in Sydney? I don't know as much about the geography of Sydney as I should, but I know its a pretty big city. How are service workers supposed to afford to buy or rent there? Are they supposed to live 100 km or more away and commute everyday?
Sydney median of $1M is inevitable. Whether or not it happens by the end of 2015 is another matter (although I'd say it is possible).

Service workers will rent, live in group homes, etc. Have a look at how things happen in NYC and London for some clues.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Ned Flanders
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stinkbug
23 Sep 2013, 01:56 PM
Sydney median of $1M is inevitable. Whether or not it happens by the end of 2015 is another matter (although I'd say it is possible).

Service workers will rent, live in group homes, etc. Have a look at how things happen in NYC and London for some clues.
:lol

Aussies really are putting on airs now. We will be the next NYC or London!

$1T economy, almost 20% of which depends on commodity prices, 20 million people in one of the least densely populated countries on earth, but just around the corner is a city like NYC or London.

Sydney median of $1M is not inevitable, it is current government policy so as to collect property taxes. But the policy is dependent on both volume and price. If volumes collapse even while prices continue to rise, governments will change their policies to encourage volume.
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" ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility."
- Alan Glynn
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John Frum
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Ned Flanders
23 Sep 2013, 02:30 PM
:lol

Aussies really are putting on airs now. We will be the next NYC or London!

$1T economy, almost 20% of which depends on commodity prices, 20 million people in one of the least densely populated countries on earth, but just around the corner is a city like NYC or London.

Sydney median of $1M is not inevitable, it is current government policy so as to collect property taxes. But the policy is dependent on both volume and price. If volumes collapse even while prices continue to rise, governments will change their policies to encourage volume.
After 10 years in London, which included several trips to NYC I agree that it's pretty funny that Sydney indulges itself with these highfautin comparisons. However I think that's more an indicator of my snobbishness rather than overvalued real estate. It appears that Sydney property is fast becoming a place for the uber-wealthy to park their money and showcase their wealth. .

This influx of big money has the knock-on effect of pushing the modestly wealthy locals down the chain, as their 350k+ salaries no longer buy them vaulcluse mansions with ocean views but tarted up terraces in the inner west. Which in turn pushes those middle class 200-350k households into areas like gladesville, ryde etc etc...

Of course this could all collapse if wealthy globetrotters lose interest, and as Sydney is not yet a critical place to do business it's entirely plausible that they will, but these movements are nigh on impossible to predict. You could be waiting forever.
Edited by John Frum, 23 Sep 2013, 08:09 PM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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stinkbug
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Ned Flanders
23 Sep 2013, 02:30 PM
:lol

Aussies really are putting on airs now. We will be the next NYC or London!

$1T economy, almost 20% of which depends on commodity prices, 20 million people in one of the least densely populated countries on earth, but just around the corner is a city like NYC or London.

Sydney median of $1M is not inevitable, it is current government policy so as to collect property taxes. But the policy is dependent on both volume and price. If volumes collapse even while prices continue to rise, governments will change their policies to encourage volume.
Way to misinterpret. How many service workers live in central London, or on Manhattan island?
Edited by stinkbug, 23 Sep 2013, 07:40 PM.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Veritas
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stinkbug
23 Sep 2013, 07:40 PM
Ned Flanders
23 Sep 2013, 02:30 PM
:lol

Aussies really are putting on airs now. We will be the next NYC or London!

$1T economy, almost 20% of which depends on commodity prices, 20 million people in one of the least densely populated countries on earth, but just around the corner is a city like NYC or London.

Sydney median of $1M is not inevitable, it is current government policy so as to collect property taxes. But the policy is dependent on both volume and price. If volumes collapse even while prices continue to rise, governments will change their policies to encourage volume.
Way to misinterpret. How many service workers live in central London, or on Manhattan island?
I think the point is that arguing the Sydney is going to come to resemble NYC or London- which in themselves are rare beasts- is a big call.

I don't believe it myself.

Australia is still a sparsely populated country in the arse end of nowhere.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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mel
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Veritas
23 Sep 2013, 07:44 PM
Australia is still a sparsely populated country in the arse end of nowhere.
questo è vero but when you have international tabloids promoting the most livable cities in the world it might be enticing - not to mention that if just 1% of worlds wealthy believe the stories we would have demand beyond belief :)
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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goldbug
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Shadow
23 Sep 2013, 01:08 PM
goldbug
21 Sep 2013, 11:24 PM
You really are a bore you know shadow. You just rehash the same old tripe over and over.
Yet you felt compelled to respond... :re:

I guess that gold price crash is really getting on your nerves, especially with Sydney property booming.

It was supposed to be the other way around, wasn't it?
Ha, booming? What, like gold was booming last month. You have just lived through a decade of sydney being in the home price desert and have for years been touting a boom that never came. So now prices have lifted a bit, so what, even a broken clock is right once a day shadow. You are counting chickens before they hatch btw. I fully expect sydney to retrace the meager gains you have seen as we move forward. Just like Perth has done for 5 years now. The Aussie economy is falling into recession and that will spell the end of your gains.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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stinkbug
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Veritas
23 Sep 2013, 07:44 PM
I think the point is that arguing the Sydney is going to come to resemble NYC or London- which in themselves are rare beasts- is a big call.

I don't believe it myself.

Australia is still a sparsely populated country in the arse end of nowhere.
The point is that iin many major cities, the service workers don't live in the blue chip suburbs, but commute considerable distances into the city centre. Why should Sydney be any different?
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

goldbug
23 Sep 2013, 08:10 PM
Ha, booming? What, like gold was booming last month. You have just lived through a decade of sydney being in the home price desert and have for years been touting a boom that never came. So now prices have lifted a bit, so what, even a broken clock is right once a day shadow. You are counting chickens before they hatch btw. I fully expect sydney to retrace the meager gains you have seen as we move forward. Just like Perth has done for 5 years now. The Aussie economy is falling into recession and that will spell the end of your gains.
LOL, Sydney median house price is at an all time high, rising fast, and set to approach $1M by the end of 2015.

Gold has crashed.

Live with it.
Edited by Shadow, 23 Sep 2013, 08:43 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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willy_nilly
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Shadow
23 Sep 2013, 08:41 PM
LOL, Sydney median house price is at an all time high, rising fast, and set to approach $1M by the end of 2015.

Gold has crashed.

Live with it.
Gold has crashed?
Not my little nuggets I got at about $380 each.
Want another tip? Buy Corning shares as gorilla glass is about to explode on large screen TV's.
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