Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Punting on Australian houses is bonkers, attracting dumb money, speculation, not investment; Ordinary people priced out of Great Australian Dream by cashed-up older generations
Topic Started: 20 Sep 2013, 10:18 AM (4,928 Views)
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Claims that families have given up on the "great Aussie dream" of home ownership are pure sensationalism: Terry Ryder

By Terry Ryder
Thursday, 26 September 2013

We have a new candidate for the title of “worst real estate article of the year”.

Unsurprisingly, it appeared in Australia’s most dismal newspaper, The Daily Telegraph.

The headline claimed that families have given up on the “great Aussie dream”. You can be fairly sure that when an article starts with that most tired of clichés, what follows is likely to be nonsense. The article did not disappoint.

It relied on another great cliché of journalism, that you never let the facts get in the way of a good story. This piece made a number of startling claims, but provided no evidence to support them.

It began with this statement: “An alarming number of Australian families are losing sight of the home ownership dream, being forced into long-term rental situations and struggling to provide security for their children.”

That’s a pretty big statement. I searched the article for information that backed it up, but there was none. No figures to support the “alarming number” claim. Nothing to justify the claim that large numbers of families are “struggling to provide security for their children”.

The second paragraph talked about “soaring property prices”. Again it didn’t provide any figures, which is a shame because I’d love to know where property prices have soared any time in the past three years.

The only markets that have achieved double-digit growth in any of the years since 2010 have been regional towns and cities, mostly those boosted by the resources sector. (Chinchilla in Queensland, for example, has averaged 10.8% annual growth in recent years, according to Australian Property Monitors figures).

The third paragraph says that “the situation is particularly severe in NSW”. Why? Apparently, because NSW has a third of the nation’s renters. Well, you would expect NSW to have a third of nation’s renters because NSW has a third of the nation’s population.

NSW is in line with national averages, whereby roughly a third of households rent and two-thirds own their homes, with or without mortgages. It’s been that way for a long time.

Paragraph six begins with this: “News that the home ownership dream is fading comes …” Really? What news that the home ownership dream is fading? Certainly it’s not contained in this article, which presents zero evidence to support the claim.

The article then moves on to blame the planning system for the crisis they say exists, but for which they have presented no supporting information.

Sensationalism at its worst and not one, not two, but three Telegraph writers interviewed their keyboards to come up with this pile of twaddle.

Yes, this anorexic article totalling 15 shallow paragraphs required contributions from three non-journalists. There was a triple byline, as if this was an epic of investigative journalism.

It was the antithesis of journalism, but sadly typical of print media’s coverage of real estate issues. No wonder the two major media organisations have been sacking journalists by the thousands recently. If this is the best three colluding writers can come up with, they don’t deserve their jobs.

So, I repeat my comment from last week on Property Observer. If you want to be informed about real estate, stop reading newspapers and start looking elsewhere for information.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/first-home-buyers/claims-that-families-have-given-up-on-the-great-aussie-dream-of-home-ownership-are-pure-sensationalism-terry-ryder
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
GloomBoomDoom
Member Avatar


These spruikers can't help themselves coming to the defence of the bubble at every opportunity.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


GloomBoomDoom
26 Sep 2013, 01:36 PM
These spruikers can't help themselves coming to the defence of the bubble at every opportunity.
What bubble? Bubbles burst...
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
DLS
Unregistered

Quote:
 
No... the RBA said the opposite to what you claim. They said talk of a bubble is alarmist and house prices have simply tracked income growth.
True, but is that not slightly troubling from a contrarian perspective? It reminds of Bernanke's soothing subprime quotes just prior to the GFC. Be very careful of central bankers telling you that everything is under control. It usually means there is trouble brewing.
Quote:
 
Capitulations from bears should be pause for thought. In the past, it has been a classic sign of an overbought market.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

DLS
26 Sep 2013, 02:18 PM
True, but is that not slightly troubling from a contrarian perspective? It reminds of Bernanke's soothing subprime quotes just prior to the GFC. Be very careful of central bankers telling you that everything is under control. It usually means there is trouble brewing.
I disagree, it usually means the opposite. I think most people tend to tell the truth most of the time.

Quote:
 
Capitulations from bears should be pause for thought. In the past, it has been a classic sign of an overbought market.
In that case you should have no difficulty providing at least a few examples?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trojan
Default APF Avatar


Capitulations from bears who have been wrong about the imminent crash?
Sorry, but I'm not about to let those clueless people decide when I buy and when I sell.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


stinkbug
26 Sep 2013, 01:43 PM
What bubble? Bubbles burst...
Yes they do.

I have yet to meet anyone that can convincingly argue that bubbles must burst within a certain time frame otherwise they are not bubbles.

Why cant a bubble inflate and stay inflated for a decade or more?

Need we remind ourselves that there hasnt been a recession in this country for over two decades.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


Veritas
26 Sep 2013, 03:32 PM
Yes they do.

I have yet to meet anyone that can convincingly argue that bubbles must burst within a certain time frame otherwise they are not bubbles.

Why cant a bubble inflate and stay inflated for a decade or more?

Need we remind ourselves that there hasnt been a recession in this country for over two decades.
Fair point, but can you give me an example of a bubble that stayed inflated for a decade or more, and then popped?
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
GloomBoomDoom
Member Avatar


stinkbug
26 Sep 2013, 01:43 PM
What bubble? Bubbles burst...
I just top up the oil and water on my 1988 model car and never get it serviced. It hasn't blown up yet therefore it never will.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
26 Sep 2013, 03:32 PM
Why cant a bubble inflate and stay inflated for a decade or more?
It makes a mockery of the term 'bubble' if a bubble can be something that remains inflated at peak levels for decades.

Besides, can you give a few examples of historical bubbles that only burst after sustaining peak price/income ratios for decades?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums with no limits on posts or members.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy