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Sydney house prices to rise 15-20% in 2014; Chistopher's 2014 housing boom and bust report now out
Topic Started: 17 Sep 2013, 06:27 PM (18,876 Views)
Shadow
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Dr Kinetoscope
18 Sep 2013, 02:29 PM
If you are going keep trumpeting this then you need to provide some tighter parameters...
I don't have to do anything of the sort. I will continue to trumpet without providing tighter parameters. In fact, I may even loosen them.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Dr Kinetoscope
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Shadow
18 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM
I don't have to do anything of the sort. I will continue to trumpet without providing tighter parameters. In fact, I may even loosen them.
Well don't then.

I have a prediction for the forum. I predict official interest rates will approach 8% by 2019.

I also predict average maximum temperate for Sydney will approach 27 degrees by December 31st 2013.

Architecture Porn
ShadBerg's torrid Macrobusiness love affair
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Elastic
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Shadow
18 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM
I don't have to do anything of the sort. I will continue to trumpet without providing tighter parameters. In fact, I may even loosen them.
So you are Louis Armstrong. I knew it.
Flaccid cheeks.

On a more serious note I must commend your Sydney call Shadow. While I don't think you'll make it to the magic million, you have been pretty accurate with your assessments of IRs on the Sydney market. I did note that you made the call earlier today that the MSM have been uber bearish the past couple of years. I don't think that's entirely accurate when you weigh up all the commentary on property in the MSM.

So is it true that you are Michael Yardney?
I noted that Black Dragon accused Strindberg of being Enzo so it would make sense that you would be Michael (of Sydney).
Edited by Elastic, 19 Sep 2013, 10:30 AM.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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A tough battle for first place

September 13, 2013
Antony Lawes

This spring is a tough time to be buying your first home. The economy might be relatively good and record low interest rates might have made mortgages cheaper, but these factors are also encouraging buyers in unprecedented numbers, especially investors, who are the traditional competitors of first-timers.

First-home buyers are often more emotionally attached to the purchase, and once that was enough for them to win the day. But the sheer volume of buyers is making the scramble for properties intense. And that scramble is expected to increase with more buyers competing for more spring listings.

The senior economist at Australian Property Monitors, Dr Andrew Wilson, says this competition has already pushed up prices in Sydney by about 10 per cent in the past 18 months.

''Our market is almost at record levels of competition from buyers,'' he says. ''We're especially seeing record numbers of investors, and that makes it even tougher for first-home buyers. That will only put more price pressure on the properties they're looking for.''

But instead of giving up and waiting until things calm down, Wilson says first-home buyers should be even more determined to get a foot in the door this spring, if their finances allow, because there's no sign of prices dropping.

''It's a balancing act … but the longer first-home buyers wait, the more prices at this stage will go up,'' he says. ''You need to take a medium- to long-term view and ignore the cycles, because trough points in Australian housing are always higher than the previous trough points.''

Westpac says the average first-time loan in Sydney is just under $350,000. Dr Wilson says they usually buy property for about $400,000. There are many options at this price point in the west or south-west of the city. But first-timers are having to scrape together a lot more if they want to buy anything in the inner ring.

Buyer's agent Patrick Bright, of EPS Property Search, says most of his inner-city clients looking for their first home have between $600,000 and $1 million to spend on a two-bedroom apartment, small terrace or semi.

Read more: http://smh.domain.com.au/first-home-buyers/a-tough-battle-for-first-place-20130912-2tm9s.html
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Shadow
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Elastic
19 Sep 2013, 12:37 AM
On a more serious note I must commend your Sydney call Shadow. While I don't think you'll make it to the magic million, you have been pretty accurate with your assessments of IRs on the Sydney market.
Thank you.

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So is it true that you are Michael Yardney?
Is it true that you are Rolf Harris?

Quote:
 
I noted that Black Dragon accused Strindberg of being Enzo so it would make sense that you would be Michael (of Sydney).
Michael Yardney is Melbourne based I believe.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Admin
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Sydney’s west booming, but is it too hot?

By Jennifer Duke
Thursday, 19 September 2013

Sydney’s west is absolutely booming, according to real estate agents at the coalface, however it might just be too hot for investors who are starting to look now and aren’t willing to be discerning.

With evidence of certain sales above that seen several months ago (see below), and competition heating up in the more affordable suburbs, Raine & Horne CEO Angus Raine said that it’s an obvious surge.

“It’s clear the surge in real estate activity has spread to Sydney’s outer ring suburbs, with our offices in Liverpool, St Marys and Penrith reporting that first-home buyers and investors are snapping up the shrinking pool of homes for sale,” said Raine.

Property buyer’s Rich Harvey told Property Observer that some people get scared about a hot market and fear it’s going to turn into crazy buying. Sometimes, they’d be correct.

“Mistakes can be made in a hot market because they make emotional decisions rather than rational decisions. At the affordable end of the market, low interest rates are driving buyers. There’s very strong competition and it’s getting harder to get properties off market, they’re usually being put up for auction or tender,” Harvey said.

“It’s not necessarily time to stay away. In a warmer market there’s more transactions and the ability to make a quick equity gain is there,” he said, pointing to opportunities in every market provided the right price is paid on the way in.

However, Sydney’s west was recently said to be ‘too hot’ by Sydney-located buyer’s agency Right Property Group at their Melbourne seminar that Property Observer attended. They said that while they’d been bullish in the western Sydney market, particularly around Mount Druitt, for several years, they have now backed off.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/new-south-wales/sydneys-west-booming-but-is-it-too-hot/2013091965143
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The RBA has the exact same tools as Ireland, Spain, US and Japan.

One switch for all sectors of the economy.

What makes anyone think that, in Australia, a 2x1 wood cottage that took 4 men 6 weeks to build costs 800k in principle, 800k in interest, 30 years of dual incomes to pay of is 'sustainable' should NOT be in charge of controlling a countries economy.

Unfortunately Australia RBA has ALL the same FLAWS of their international counterparts and simply don't have the tools to prevent investment dollars from flooding into individual sectors or assets.

An Economy in BALANCE is one where the ECONOMIC COST to produce an asset is marginally below the ECONOMIC VALUE. Anything more than this and its unsustainable.

Case in point the aforementioned house which is a common sight particularly in Sydney and Perth.

The RBA has ONE tool to help the Australian economy. I don't blame them for saying 'there is no bubble' because they don't have the tools to stop them forming anyhow.

What the RBA is doing however is encouraging foreign investment instead of local investment so that then the housing market does crash smart Australians shouldn't see as big of a hit to their values as international investors. They will take a double hit from the falling house prices AND the falling dollar trying to sell and return the funds back to their respective countries.

To say that Australia's housing is not in an unsustainable bubble with Holden on a WAGE FREEZE yet inflation pushing the upper limit is counter to what the RBA proposes is a "Balanced" economy.
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Strindberg
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Black_Dragon
18 Sep 2013, 11:15 AM
Well, like this, you do occasionally come out with some very personal and incorrect claims designed to damage the reputations of others. Its a shame because when you are less aggressive, you can come out with some good material.

BTW, you sure you are not Enzo by chance?! :to:
I'm not aware of any claims in that post which are "incorrect". I'm happy to withdraw them if you can show them to be incorrect.

Yes it's personal, very much like your own personal attacks on Enzo and Chris Joye designed to damage their reputations.

No, my name is not Enzo.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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mel
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Strindberg
19 Sep 2013, 07:57 PM
No, my name is not Enzo.
that was pretty God damn funny Strindbreg :lol
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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toby
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19 Sep 2013, 03:43 PM
The RBA has the exact same tools as Ireland, Spain, US and Japan.

One switch for all sectors of the economy.
Why do people insist on believing at face value what powerful entities like the RBA claim about themselves. A switch? I don't think so.

Interest rates are dictated by the demand for money and all a group like the RBA does is provide political cover for a cartel agreement between the banks. Without them banks would be tempted to undercut each other on rates and get into rate wars, similar to the pizza wars we have seen in Australia. The RBA follows the market and fixes a rate after the fact that is always guaranteed to extract the highest possible userage from the largest amount of borrowers. The most criminal aspect of the whole process here in Australia is no doubt the fact that your home loan rate can only be fixed for 4 or 5 years maximum. This allows price gouging at a future point in time and makes the whole idea of borrowing hundreds of thousands off banks a very risky and dangerous proposal.

The Asians that move to Australia know this quite well and many choose to save up collectively to buy their homes.
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