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No one wants to be the next Fed Chairman; Ominous to say the least
Topic Started: 17 Sep 2013, 04:27 PM (3,552 Views)
newjez
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Thank Christ for that.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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miw
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newjez
19 Sep 2013, 05:37 AM
Thank Christ for that.
Long, were we? :oo:

(me too. In the end I had only sold off a bit under 10% of my portfolio.)

BTW props to b_b. The growth forecasts were revised slightly downwards for this year and next. The stock market dropped off a little bit while BB was talking about that, but picked up again later on in his statement. Doesn't seem to be much of a surprise.

He spent quite a bit of time talking about fiscal headwinds and making veiled references to the fact that maybe monkey feeding time in the zoo (Congress debates lifting the debt ceiling and a continuation motion to stop govt shutdown over the next month or so) is not the best time to be screwing with the locks on the lion cage.
Edited by miw, 19 Sep 2013, 05:49 AM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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newjez
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miw
19 Sep 2013, 05:44 AM
Long, were we? :oo:

(me too. In the end I had only sold off a bit under 10% of my portfolio.)

BTW props to b_b. The growth forecasts were revised slightly downwards for this year and next. The stock market dropped off a little bit while BB was talking about that, but picked up again later on in his statement. Doesn't seem to be much of a surprise.

He spent quite a bit of time talking about fiscal headwinds and making veiled references to the fact that maybe monkey feeding time in the zoo (Congress debates lifting the debt ceiling and a continuation motion to stop govt shutdown over the next month or so) is not the best time to be screwing with the locks on the lion cage.
No,I'm mostly cashed up. But I have a large sharesave scheme that pays out in Oct. After Oct, the markets can do what they will.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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miw
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newjez
19 Sep 2013, 06:38 AM
No,I'm mostly cashed up. But I have a large sharesave scheme that pays out in Oct. After Oct, the markets can do what they will.
good luck with that. (and I mean it) We aren't home free yet. The whole congressional wrangling thing will extend the wall of worry, and of course a "bad" result in the German election on the weekend could roil markets a bit....
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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b_b
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miw
19 Sep 2013, 06:44 AM
newjez
19 Sep 2013, 06:38 AM
No,I'm mostly cashed up. But I have a large sharesave scheme that pays out in Oct. After Oct, the markets can do what they will.
good luck with that. (and I mean it) We aren't home free yet. The whole congressional wrangling thing will extend the wall of worry, and of course a "bad" result in the German election on the weekend could roil markets a bit....
Strong rally in the AUD will not make the RBA happy. More rate cuts?
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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newjez
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miw
19 Sep 2013, 06:44 AM
good luck with that. (and I mean it) We aren't home free yet. The whole congressional wrangling thing will extend the wall of worry, and of course a "bad" result in the German election on the weekend could roil markets a bit....
Yes - there are still risks. But one will have to at least consider going long now until the year end. Albeit slowly and carefully.
b_b
19 Sep 2013, 10:09 AM
Strong rally in the AUD will not make the RBA happy. More rate cuts?
Either that or a banana republic moment. Although most other BRICS are defending their currencies.
Edited by newjez, 19 Sep 2013, 12:02 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Gazo
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miw
19 Sep 2013, 05:44 AM
Long, were we? :oo:

(me too. In the end I had only sold off a bit under 10% of my portfolio.)

BTW props to b_b. The growth forecasts were revised slightly downwards for this year and next. The stock market dropped off a little bit while BB was talking about that, but picked up again later on in his statement. Doesn't seem to be much of a surprise.

He spent quite a bit of time talking about fiscal headwinds and making veiled references to the fact that maybe monkey feeding time in the zoo (Congress debates lifting the debt ceiling and a continuation motion to stop govt shutdown over the next month or so) is not the best time to be screwing with the locks on the lion cage.
Here is how bubbles Ben feeds us and Wall Street. It's a pity the masses are so dumbed down and are taking so long to react similarly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL45pVdsRvE
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b_b
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Gazo
19 Sep 2013, 12:48 PM
miw
19 Sep 2013, 05:44 AM
Long, were we? :oo:

(me too. In the end I had only sold off a bit under 10% of my portfolio.)

BTW props to b_b. The growth forecasts were revised slightly downwards for this year and next. The stock market dropped off a little bit while BB was talking about that, but picked up again later on in his statement. Doesn't seem to be much of a surprise.

He spent quite a bit of time talking about fiscal headwinds and making veiled references to the fact that maybe monkey feeding time in the zoo (Congress debates lifting the debt ceiling and a continuation motion to stop govt shutdown over the next month or so) is not the best time to be screwing with the locks on the lion cage.
Here is how bubbles Ben feeds us and Wall Street. It's a pity the masses are so dumbed down and are taking so long to react similarly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL45pVdsRvE
The masses are so "dumbed down" that they do not even realise QE is slowing the economy.....

With all of the financial market celebrations no-one has yet questioned why, despited +$3T of balance sheet expansion by the Fed, economic growth is still anemic....
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Shorey
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There was no ‘taper’ because there’s no recovery!

The only reason the unemployment rate has dropped at all is because of the fall in the participation rate. In the U.S., the job participation rate is the lowest since the 1970s, real unemployment (calculated on a consistent basis) is 23%, workers’ real wages have not gone up for decades, 50 million people are on food stamps, government deficit runs at $1 trillion per year and government debt including unfunded liabilities is $220 trillion and growing exponentially.Does this sound like an improving economy? Well not to me. Also, the banking system has the same toxic debt and derivatives as in 2008. The banks are just fortunate that they don’t have to value their assets at market. If they did, very few banks would be standing today.
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miw
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b_b
19 Sep 2013, 01:01 PM
The masses are so "dumbed down" that they do not even realise QE is slowing the economy.....

With all of the financial market celebrations no-one has yet questioned why, despited +$3T of balance sheet expansion by the Fed, economic growth is still anemic....
Pretty-much.

I was disappointed in the lack of tapering, actually. It's just been put off until next month. The only reason not to taper is because of its impact on the markets, and the Fed had got the market into a place where tapering would not have had any really severe impact. Who knows if it will still be there in October? It was riced in and now it has been priced out.

Lots of people are asking that question though. I was surprised by the violence of the reaction to the non-taper, and I am expecting a lot of the moves will be reversed in fairly short order.

Interestingly, a lot of the steepening of the yield curve had already been evened out by the close. The 10-yr caught up to the 5yr in terms of yield drop (17bp vs 19bp) and the 30-yr also dropped another 5bp before the close to catch up on the 5-yr a bit. What did I say about the bond traders being the smart money? Expect the share traders to work it out next week and the gold/commodities traders to work it out sometime in October.

All eyes on tonight's new jobless claims and the revisions to last week's number which was tainted by IT glitches in a couple of states.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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