Yellen was born in Brooklyn, New York, the daughter of Anna (née Blumenthal) and Julius Yellen, a doctor.[1] She graduated from Fort Hamilton High School in the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn.[2] She graduated summa cum laude from Brown University with a degree in economics in 1967, and received her Ph.D. in economics from Yale University in 1971. Yellen is Jewish,[3] and is married to George Akerlof, a Nobel prize-winning economist and professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley. Her son, Robert Akerlof is an assistant professor at the University of Warwick.[4]
Only 8 hours to go until SepTaper. Strange that they release the minutes before the close, but it should be an exciting day none the less.
The taper is pretty irrelevant because so much expectation has been priced in (taper lite). What will be more relevant will be the Feds new economic forecasts (they will downgrade GDP) and guidance on short term rates. I think the surprise may be the lower GDP forecasts (which no one is really focused on) and the commentary that the cash rate will stay lower for longer.
The taper is pretty irrelevant because so much expectation has been priced in (taper lite). What will be more relevant will be the Feds new economic forecasts (they will downgrade GDP) and guidance on short term rates. I think the surprise may be the lower GDP forecasts (which no one is really focused on) and the commentary that the cash rate will stay lower for longer.
Interesting night ahead.
That could be a good call, actually. As you say, on the taper side anything except a $10-15B reduction in securities purchases will be a surprise. I'll be watching the press conference with interest.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
To put some numbers around what the market is expecting to come out on the forecast front, anything which differs much from the below will be seen as a surprise....
Quote:
As the economy improves, the Fed is trying to shift its emphasis from bond buying, which has uncertain costs and benefits, to the low-rate pledge. Explaining the path of rates far in the future will get more complicated when the Fed releases its 2016 forecasts for the first time on Wednesday. Those forecasts are likely to show an unemployment rate within the 5.2% to 6% range that officials believe is normal in the long run and an inflation rate near the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's most recent public forecast, made in June, showed the jobless rate right around 6% by the fourth quarter of 2015 and inflation near 2%.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
The taper is pretty irrelevant because so much expectation has been priced in (taper lite). What will be more relevant will be the Feds new economic forecasts (they will downgrade GDP) and guidance on short term rates. I think the surprise may be the lower GDP forecasts (which no one is really focused on) and the commentary that the cash rate will stay lower for longer.
Interesting night ahead.
Given the NFP miss, the market has probably priced in 5B rather than 10-15. I think the number to watch is the 10Y yield. Any more than mini-taper will probably see it break 3%. Not sure why anyone in the market takes any notice of the Fed's forward guidance on GDP. It's not like they get it right very often.
Given the NFP miss, the market has probably priced in 5B rather than 10-15. I think the number to watch is the 10Y yield. Any more than mini-taper will probably see it break 3%. Not sure why anyone in the market takes any notice of the Fed's forward guidance on GDP. It's not like they get it right very often.
Pretty sure the market is pricing in more than $5B.
But the proof of the pudding is in the eating and we'll know by 3PM US Eastern anyhow.
For what the smart money thinks, watch the 10-yr. For what the not-so-smart money thinks, watch the S&P 500. For what the dumb money thinks, watch gold.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
Pretty sure the market is pricing in more than $5B.
But the proof of the pudding is in the eating and we'll know by 3PM US Eastern anyhow.
For what the smart money thinks, watch the 10-yr. For what the not-so-smart money thinks, watch the S&P 500. For what the dumb money thinks, watch gold.
Well, after the statement but before the presser:
No Taper. This has surprised every single analyst I think. Sure surprised me.
All the money seems to be agreement. Bonds, stocks and gold all spiking up.
Interestingly, the yield curve steepened - 5yr down 14bp, 10yr down 9bp, 30-yr down 5 bp. Obviously heightened inflation expectations trump any downward pressure at the long end of the curve.
S&P went from down 0.1% to up 0.85%
Gold up nearly $15. Less than I would have expected under the circumstances.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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