We got climate change wrong says IPCC - global warming estimates revised down; Global temperatures less sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than previously thought
An estimate by 'a pair of Swiss climate modelers' is not a census.
Let me guess, you just picked the highest estimate you could find?
The study done by those swiss climate modellers is the best that modern science can muster at the moment. At best, science can only estimate the proportion of global warming humans are responsible for. Asking god what the exact proportion is fails to present itself as an option.
So maybe down to 2000-year accuracy if they're lucky.
Good luck translating that block of ice into any sort of meaningful data on what the climate was doing over the span of a few decades, half a million years ago.
At that depth, you've got a metre of ice all squashed together and melted into itself, representing thousands of years.
So, from your link, they're currently constructing a 400,000 year climate record, from a patch of ice, which supports my position, yes, I'll admit, there will be gaps and issues, but they're working on it, everything in science can be revised, it's not religion.
Pig Iron
6 Nov 2013, 05:07 PM
you don't need to be a climatologist to see they fucked up. you just need enough brains to follow a line and see the other lines go in a different direction.
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The study done by those swiss climate modellers is the best that modern science can muster at the moment. At best, science can only estimate the proportion of global warming humans are responsible for. Asking god what the exact proportion is fails to present itself as an option.
Humans have absolutely no idea if the world is warming because of natural warming as a result of the ending of the natural cooling of the little ice age or if some other factor is involved.
Obviously the climate models were trend fitting and working backwards to get the results they expected from their assumptions at a time of rising temperature.
Even if warming resumes we will still have no idea why the World is warming.
But for sure there will be no shortage of people wanting funding
The study done by those swiss climate modellers is the best that modern science can muster at the moment.
They're just guessing. Other scientists have other different guesses. Nobody actually knows. There is no consensus. It is impossible (and always will be impossible) to determine whether current changes in the climate over a span of a few decades are unusual compared to changes that occurred through past millennia.
Kulganis
6 Nov 2013, 05:12 PM
So, from your link, they're currently constructing a 400,000 year climate record, from a patch of ice, which supports my position, yes, I'll admit, there will be gaps and issues, but they're working on it, everything in science can be revised, it's not religion.
Well, I thought you were saying they already had the data. Now you say they're working on getting the data. Realistically though, do you believe they'll ever be able to gain an accurate picture of climate change hundreds of thousand of years ago when they can't even date the ice with sufficient accuracy, never mind then extract some useful information from that ice in order to actually say what was happening to global temperatures, sea levels, CO2 etc (all around the world) during that time, from some ice taken from one location in the world? Seriously, think about this logically. It's impossible. We will never know with sufficient accuracy what the climate was doing hundreds of thousands of years ago.
yes and that's my whole beef with climate alarmists. they are NOT using science.
real science would look for a way to disprove their hypothesis. instead anyone questioning whether climate change is man made or even real at all gets branded a heretic.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
Humans have absolutely no idea if the world is warming because of natural warming as a result of the ending of the natural cooling of the little ice age or if some other factor is involved.
Obviously the climate models were trend fitting and working backwards to get the results they expected from their assumptions at a time of rising temperature.
Even if warming resumes we will still have no idea why the World is warming.
But for sure there will be no shortage of people wanting funding
You're right. The smart thing to do would be to ignore the majority of scientists. They're clearly just after funding. We'd be best served by simply plowing ahead as we've always done. What could possibly go wrong?
Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 05:16 PM
They're just guessing. Other scientists have other different guesses. Nobody actually knows. There is no consensus. It is impossible (and always will be impossible) to determine whether current changes in the climate over a span of a few decades are unusual compared to changes that occurred through past millennia. Well, I thought you were saying they already had the data. Now you say they're working on getting the data. Realistically though, do you believe they'll ever be able to gain an accurate picture of climate change hundreds of thousand of years ago when they can't even date the ice with sufficient accuracy, never mind then extract some useful information from that ice in order to actually say what was happening to temperatures, sea levels, CO2 etc, (all around the world) during that time. Seriously, think about this logically. It's impossible.
If we're just going to dismiss science and the overwhelming majority of scientists (there is over a 90% majority consensus) as 'just guessing' its somewhat pointless to continue this discussion.
so you are saying they aren't? you don't think we should factor in the human element in decision making in this case, but if it's climate we should instantly agree it must be the big bad humans doing it?
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
yes and that's my whole beef with climate alarmists. they are NOT using science.
real science would look for a way to disprove their hypothesis. instead anyone questioning whether climate change is man made or even real at all gets branded a heretic.
You're right. The smart thing to do would be to ignore the majority of scientists. They're clearly just after funding. We'd be best served by simply plowing ahead as we've always done. What could possibly go wrong?
The smarter thing to do is spend our precious resources on something that has a basis in science rather than something more akin to religion where herecy is likely to lead to professional isolation
Spending money on mental illness seems a far more worthy beneficiary of hundreds of billions of dollars than some kind of 'what if maybe' based on virtually nothing at all.
do you even get that someone calling the end of the world for 10 years and being wrong the whole time is an alarmist even if they eventually get it right by mistake?
they are of no value at all, like a broken clock which shows the right time twice a day if you happen to glance at it at the right time.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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