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We got climate change wrong says IPCC - global warming estimates revised down; Global temperatures less sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than previously thought
Topic Started: 16 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM (15,940 Views)
Shadow
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Kulganis
6 Nov 2013, 04:29 PM
So, the 259 scientists on the IPCC, who stated that it is extremely likely that humans are the dominant force behind climate change are wrong? What blasted doctorate of science have you got, or are you just using instinct?
So they claim it is 'likely' based on a few decades worth of data (much of which has itself been questioned). The climate has been changing for billions of years. They have absolutely no idea whether current changes in the climate are 'extreme' or 'unusual' compared to changes that occurred 2000 years ago, never mind 20,000 or 200,000 years ago.

The claim doesn't hold water because they don't have sufficient accurate historical long term data with which to compare current changes in the climate.
Edited by Shadow, 6 Nov 2013, 04:36 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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dave
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Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:24 PM
I think humans can influence the climate, but there's no evidence that we are the dominant force behind climate change, and certainly no consensus as to the degree of human influence.
Yep, and there's no evidence that the australian property market is in a bubble.
You live in a wonderful world Margaret.
Pity it is so far removed from reality.
Especially sad for your five kids.
Edited by dave, 6 Nov 2013, 04:36 PM.
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Shadow
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dave
6 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM
You live in a wonderful world Margaret.
Pity it is so far removed from reality.
What proportion of climate change is cause by humans? 10%? 90%? Tell me...
Edited by Shadow, 6 Nov 2013, 04:38 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Kulganis
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Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM
So they claim it is 'likely' based on a few decades worth of data (much of which has itself been questioned). The climate has been changing for billions of years. They have absolutely no idea whether current changes in the climate are 'extreme' or 'unusual' compared to changes that occurred 2000 years ago, never mind 20,000 or 200,000 years ago.

The claim doesn't hold water because they don't have sufficient accurate historical long term data with which to compare current changes in the climate.
Actually, they have more than 800,000 years of data...

Quote:
 
Ice Core Data Help Solve a Global Warming Mystery
Why do some ice core samples seem to indicate CO2 spikes trailed increases in global temperature? It’s all about the way bubbles move in ice

By William Ferguson

Scientists can study Earth’s climate as far back as 800,000 years by drilling core samples from deep underneath the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Detailed information on air temperature and CO2 levels is trapped in these specimens. Current polar records show an intimate connection between atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature in the natural world. In essence, when one goes up, the other one follows.

There is, however, still a degree of uncertainty about which came first—a spike in temperature or CO2. Until now, the most comprehensive records to date on a major change in Earth’s climate came from the EPICA Dome C ice core on the Antarctic Plateau. The data, covering the end of the last ice age, between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, show that CO2 levels could have lagged behind rising global temperatures by as much as 1,400 years. “The idea that there was a lag of CO2 behind temperature is something climate change skeptics pick on,” says Edward Brook of Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. “They say, ‘How could CO2 levels affect global temperature when you are telling me the temperature changed first?’”
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=ice-core-data-help-solve
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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zaph
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Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM
So they claim it is 'likely' based on a few decades worth of data (much of which has itself been questioned). The climate has been changing for billions of years. They have absolutely no idea whether current changes in the climate are 'extreme' or 'unusual' compared to changes that occurred 2000 years ago, never mind 20,000 or 200,000 years ago.
Quote:
 
The claim doesn't hold water because they don't have sufficient accurate historical long term data with which to compare current changes in the climate.


How much do we need?
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Shadow
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Kulganis
6 Nov 2013, 04:38 PM
Actually, they have more than 800,000 years of data...

Oh come on. You really believe drilling holes in ice can give us data about the climate 800,000 years ago that is in any way comparable in accuracy and reliability to actual live readings taken over the past few decades? They aren't even able to date the ice cores to within 100-year accuracy! How on earth are they going to use a block of ice that may have been created somewhere between 200,000 and 300,000 BC to tell us what changes to the climate occurred between 250,400 and 250,500 BC?

Climate change alarmists are looking at changes in temperature over the past 50 years and claiming such changes are unusual, but they have no idea what changes occurred over 50-year periods 100,000 years ago.
Edited by Shadow, 9 Nov 2013, 07:53 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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dave
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Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:37 PM
What proportion of climate change is cause by humans? 10%? 90%? Tell me...
Best approximation made by scientists so far is 74%
Weather that proportion turns out to be lower or greater in reality doesn't really matter as there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that the situation is dire and that we need to be doing everything in our power to reverse this trend as soon as we can.
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Kulganis
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Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:37 PM
What proportion of climate change is cause by humans? 10%? 90%? Tell me...
Quote:
 
It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf
I think it means forces instead of forcings, but I left it as is, just in case.
Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:44 PM
Oh come on. You really believe drilling holes in ice can give us data about the climate 800,000 years ago that is in any way comparable in accuracy and reliability to actual live readings taken over the past few decades? They aren't even able to date the ice cores to within 100-year accuracy! How on earth are they going to use a block of ice that may have been created somewhere between 200,000 and 300,000 AD to tell us what changes to the climate occurred between 250,400 and 250,500 AD?

Climate change alarmists are looking at changes in temperature over the past 50 years and claiming such changes are unusual, but they have no idea what changes occurred over 50-year periods 100,000 years ago.
Again, is this instinct, or do you have any sort of degree or doctorate in any scientific background? Do you have any references to back up your claims?
Edited by Kulganis, 6 Nov 2013, 04:51 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Shadow
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dave
6 Nov 2013, 04:49 PM
Best approximation made by scientists so far is 74%
Link please?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Kulganis
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And before anyone tries to challenge me on it, no I don't have a degree or doctorate, but I've been providing links and references all along the way.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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