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We got climate change wrong says IPCC - global warming estimates revised down; Global temperatures less sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than previously thought
Topic Started: 16 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM (15,941 Views)
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'The claims are exaggerated': John Howard rejects predictions of global warming catastrophe

November 6, 2013 - 8:59AM
Nick Miller

London: Former prime minister John Howard has poured scorn on the "alarmist" scientific consensus on global warming in a speech to a gathering of British climate sceptics, comparing those calling for action on climate change to religious zealots.

Mr Howard said he was an "agnostic" on climate science and he preferred to rely on his instinct, which told him that predictions of doom were exaggerated.

He also relied on a book written by a prominent climate sceptic, which scientists have attacked as ignorant and misleading.

And he called on politicians not to be browbeaten into surrendering their role in determining economic policy.

Nuclear power – a "very clean source of energy" - shale oil and fracking were solutions to the world's energy needs, Mr Howard said.

Mr Howard's speech in London on Tuesday night was to the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a think tank established by Nigel Lawson, one of Britain's most prominent climate change sceptics, former chancellor in the Thatcher government and father of TV chef Nigella.

Mr Howard revealed before the speech that the only book he had read on climate change was Lawson's An Appeal to Reason: a Cool Look at Global Warming, published in 2008.

Mr Howard said he read it twice, once when he was writing his autobiography, when he used it to counter advice for stronger action on climate change given to him by government departments when he had been prime minister.

But the book has been attacked by climate experts.

Mr Howard quoted as "compelling" one of Mr Lawson's claims in the book: that unmitigated warming would leave future generations 8.4 times better off, compared with 9.4 times richer in the absence of climate change (the book in fact uses the numbers 8.5 and 9.5).

That calculation is based on "sleight of hand and faulty logic", said Bob Ward, policy director at the London School of Economics Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, and it ignores the possibility of warming at the higher end of estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Sir John Loughton, lead editor of the first three reports by the IPCC, the UN's climate panel, called the book "neither cool nor rational", saying it showed a "surprising ignorance of elementary statistical analysis" and ignored the impact of more frequent floods and droughts.

Tuesday night's speech was titled "One religion is enough".

In notes for the speech distributed beforehand, Mr Howard said he chose the title "in reaction to the sanctimonious tone employed by so many of those who advocate … costly responses to what they see as irrefutable evidence that the world's climate faces catastrophe".

He said policy makers were faced with attempts to "intimidate" them with the mantras of 'follow the science' and 'the science is truly settled'."

However, it was the job of politicians to make public policy, and they should not surrender that role, Mr Howard said.

"The ground is thick with rent-seekers. There are plenty of people around who want access to public money in the name of saving the planet.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-claims-are-exaggerated-john-howard-rejects-predictions-of-global-warming-catastrophe-20131106-2wzza.html
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goose
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Good on Howard, given man made climate change is really only a hypothesis he’s not actually wrong.

On climate change people really need to get off their butts and do their own research, it appears, unfortunately, they the people get too locked up in government and the main stream media when they should be looking at what great research they have been doing over at CERN, understanding the Antarctic’s Climate,etc….

I’ve read many books on the climate and the weather to have an understanding that there are too many variables that come into play for man to have any Macro effect, however human arrogance tells him otherwise.

First it was global cooling in the 70′s, warming in the 00′s and now Climate Change into the 10′s (So as to bridge all facets), the emphasis should be on pollution, period, but alas this burden would then fall on big business and politically vested interests, the ability to tax the masses would be lost.

In fifty years the wool will lift from peoples eyes – much as it has with cholesterol being the cause of heart disease and must be lowered at all costs – and the ‘Man Made’ statement will be removed from the climate change debate.

My thesis stands along side the late great Christopher Hitchens when he said, better to do something than be proven wrong.
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Kulganis
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goose
6 Nov 2013, 03:29 PM
Good on Howard, given man made climate change is really only a hypothesis he’s not actually wrong.

On climate change people really need to get off their butts and do their own research, it appears, unfortunately, they the people get too locked up in government and the main stream media when they should be looking at what great research they have been doing over at CERN, understanding the Antarctic’s Climate,etc….

I’ve read many books on the climate and the weather to have an understanding that there are too many variables that come into play for man to have any Macro effect, however human arrogance tells him otherwise.

First it was global cooling in the 70′s, warming in the 00′s and now Climate Change into the 10′s (So as to bridge all facets), the emphasis should be on pollution, period, but alas this burden would then fall on big business and politically vested interests, the ability to tax the masses would be lost.

In fifty years the wool will lift from peoples eyes – much as it has with cholesterol being the cause of heart disease and must be lowered at all costs – and the ‘Man Made’ statement will be removed from the climate change debate.

My thesis stands along side the late great Christopher Hitchens when he said, better to do something than be proven wrong.
1. You don't seem to understand the difference between the word 'hypothesis' in public circles and the word 'hypothesis' in scientific circles.

2. Show us your peer reviewed 'thesis'. Your 6 sentences don't constitute a thesis, by the way.

I assume you're a keyboard warrior with no scientific background, 1 proves that. John Howard is a lawyer, also with no scientific background.

There is a lot more consensus in favour of anthropogenic climate change than there is against it.
Edited by Kulganis, 6 Nov 2013, 03:59 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Shadow
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Kulganis
6 Nov 2013, 03:58 PM
There is a lot more consensus in favour of anthropogenic climate change than there is against it.
There's no consensus on the degree to which humans influence climate change.

The climate was changing long before humans could measure any changes, and long before humans even existed.

I expect our influence is pretty small.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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dave
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Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:06 PM
There's no consensus on the degree to which humans influence climate change.

The climate was changing long before humans could measure any changes, and long before humans even existed.

I expect our influence is pretty small.
Margaret doesn't think humans are responsible for climate change... why is that not surprising?
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Kulganis
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Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident in most regions of the globe, a new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes.

It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. The evidence for this has grown, thanks to more and better observations, an improved understanding of the climate system response and improved climate models.
http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar5/press_release_ar5_wgi_en.pdf


"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Shadow
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dave
6 Nov 2013, 04:13 PM
Margaret doesn't think humans are responsible for climate change... why is that not surprising?
I think humans can influence the climate, but there's no evidence that we are the dominant force behind climate change, and certainly no consensus as to the degree of human influence.
Edited by Shadow, 6 Nov 2013, 04:25 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Kulganis
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Shadow
6 Nov 2013, 04:24 PM
I think humans can influence the climate, but there's no evidence that we are the dominant force behind climate change, and certainly no consensus as to the degree of human influence.
So, the 259 scientists on the IPCC, who stated that it is extremely likely that humans are the dominant force behind climate change are wrong? What blasted doctorate of science have you got, or are you just using instinct?
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Nelson
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Posted Image

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152042274618968&set=a.221758208967.168468.146605843967&type=1

ALL the models are already WRONG !!!!!
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Kulganis
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No, see I don't accept Facebook as a reliable source of information any more than I do Wikipedia. If the image referenced its originating source, I may have, but it doesn't, I can make pretty pictures on GIMP say anything I want too.
Edited by Kulganis, 6 Nov 2013, 04:35 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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