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We got climate change wrong says IPCC - global warming estimates revised down; Global temperatures less sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than previously thought
Topic Started: 16 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM (15,942 Views)
genX
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miw
16 Sep 2013, 09:48 PM
But the surface warming at the equator has been observed to be very significantly less than the warming at the poles, in accordance with the atmospheric models. We are talking degrees here, not tenths of degrees.

You are right that some people are worried that the currents might at some time shut down and, for example, plunge the British Isles into a new ice age, but it has not happened yet - and nobody has expected it to be visible as yet.

This is a classic case of "oh shit our prediction didn't come to pass. Let's find some excuse to push it out a few years."
Right. The atmosphere at the equator will not warm very much because (a) it is already hot and (b) temperature is limited by humidity. But that is the atmospheric warming, not the deep ocean warming. The currents are pushed from the poles as the salinity increases (ice floats, salt sinks), not pushed from the equator by warmth.

It's not really a matter of the gulf stream shutting down, more that it will slow down, which will mean it will take less heat away from the higher latitudes in Summer. If that happens, the winters should be mild, but the summers will produce very strong weather cells, leading to violent storms and flooding.

Sunspot activity reached a 30 year low in 2009 (co-incidence?) and looks set to be the lowest solar max for 50 years this year. I think this is a case of, 'it's the sun stupid'.
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miw
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genX
16 Sep 2013, 11:02 PM
Sunspot activity reached a 30 year low in 2009 (co-incidence?) and looks set to be the lowest solar max for 50 years this year. I think this is a case of, 'it's the sun stupid'.
Talk about Global Warming people co-opting the arguments of the skeptics. Last I read, there was no link between sunspots and the climate.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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genX
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miw
16 Sep 2013, 11:54 PM
Talk about Global Warming people co-opting the arguments of the skeptics.
Who are 'Global Warming people'?
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Last I read, there was no link between sunspots and the climate.
Tell that to those who lived through the Maunder minimum.
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Thatguy
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miw
16 Sep 2013, 11:54 PM
Talk about Global Warming people co-opting the arguments of the skeptics. Last I read, there was no link between sunspots and the climate.
Yeah, this topic is a doozy. Generally it is thought that solar output variation previously played a role in global temperature fluctuations however in recent times human emissions have become far more dominant and reduced the role of solar variation to a minimal influence. Not none, but minimal. There is some evidence to say that sunspots do have more of an effect on regional weather.
foxbat101
16 Sep 2013, 07:57 PM
strange how tax will reduce global warming.
Hmmmmmm
Peter
:bl:
Too hard for you to comprehend?
Edited by Thatguy, 17 Sep 2013, 12:54 PM.
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Sweetdish
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barns
16 Sep 2013, 01:56 PM
Abbott's only been in a week and climate change is fixed...
hahaha.
Before you know it research will show that the Internet was indeed a fad and we wont need it any more at all - making Abbott's NBN version perfect.


On a more serious note - I have personally always very much doubted the accuracy climate models.
When I saw the incredible amounts of data that went into them and the complexity of the algorithms I realised there was a much bigger chance of them getting it wrong than right. And the way they used the models was to basically reverse engineer the current climate and guessing until it was close enough. Then they'd use that data to predict the future. Funny thing was, as soon as you change the tiniest detail the results would completely change and could pretty much end up anywhere.

In my opinion the politically correct quest to suppress carbon emissions have been a giant misallocation of resources and done at the expense of more important environmental issues.
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Coalition delivers on promise to axe Climate Commission

Chris Kenny
September 19, 2013 1:20PM

THE Abbott government has moved swiftly to disband the Climate Commission and sack its commissioners, including controversial chief commissioner Tim Flannery.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt telephoned Professor Flannery today in what was described as a civil discussion delivering expected news.

The Coalition is fulfilling an election promise to dispense with the commission, saving taxpayers $580,000 this financial year and $1.6 million in following years.

Mr Hunt said he had also written to Professor Flannery and the other five commissioners, thanking them for their efforts and formally advising them of the decision, effective immediately.

“The Coalition believes it is the role of the Department of Environment to provide independent advice and analysis on climate change,” said Mr Hunt, “and that the role of the Climate Commission was duplicating the work of the department.”

The Climate Commission has been a controversial body. Established by the Gillard government in 2011, it was charged with providing Australians with “an independent and reliable source of information about the science of climate change, the international action being taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the economics of a carbon price”.

However it delivered reports with titles including the “angry summer” and “critical decade” which said climate change is already having a deleterious impact in Australia.

The reports were widely publicised and the commission was accused of running an agenda.

Read more: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/coalition-delivers-on-promise-to-axe-climate-commission/story-e6frg6xf-1226722787406
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Thatguy
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Sweetdish
17 Sep 2013, 02:57 PM
hahaha.
Before you know it research will show that the Internet was indeed a fad and we wont need it any more at all - making Abbott's NBN version perfect.


On a more serious note - I have personally always very much doubted the accuracy climate models.
When I saw the incredible amounts of data that went into them and the complexity of the algorithms I realised there was a much bigger chance of them getting it wrong than right. And the way they used the models was to basically reverse engineer the current climate and guessing until it was close enough. Then they'd use that data to predict the future. Funny thing was, as soon as you change the tiniest detail the results would completely change and could pretty much end up anywhere.

In my opinion the politically correct quest to suppress carbon emissions have been a giant misallocation of resources and done at the expense of more important environmental issues.
I would agree there are more important environmental issues at the local level, especially recent ones in SE Asia. However the issue of stopping the increase in CO2 emission, and actually reducing them on an absolute level while the population and emissions per head of population are rising is a difficult task.

Also the models are fraught with danger. However the basic premise based on chemistry and physics is sound. The issue is feedback loops positive and negative.
I do tend to believe the specific body was irrelevant and just a distraction. The CSIRO and department of Environment have enough talent and respect to deliver climate research to Australia.
Edited by Thatguy, 20 Sep 2013, 05:44 PM.
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jesusjones
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html
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Kulganis
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http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=daily%20mail

If you can post a link, with no quote or information, I can post a link with the same, this is what internet people think of "Daily Mail"

This is my favourite...

Quote:
 
British newspaper aimed at conservatine, middle class housewives. Regards itself as a serious newspaper despite the fact that it is clearly tabloid.

It claims to be a moral voice of the people but is in fact a paper designed to indulge the quasi-racist/homophobic/bigotted views held by much of middle england.

The paper loves nothing more than creating a moral panic and has done so over the years on subjects ranging from hoodies to water bottles.

The Daily Mail typically finds time to bleat on about the terrible state of Britain today in its police force, NHS, Education system and policy on immigration. It is truly creative in finding a whole bunch of ways of paraphrasing "Kick all asylum seekers out. We hate foreign people".

The Daily Mail burns rather nicely and is just the right size to cover cat litter trays.
Typical Daily Mail headlines:

"Black person gets job"
"Presenter says word sex on TV"
"My angelic little girl was made to wear a hoodie by a gay immigrant paedophile communist"


Though this comes close behind it...

Quote:
 
A horrid little window into an awesome universe of pure blockheaded spite. Spiralling galaxies of ignorance roll majestically against a backdrop of what looks like dark prejudice, dotted hither and thither with winking stars of snide innuendo.
Run out of toilet paper? Just use this copy of the Daily Mail.


And no, I haven't read the article, find a scientific paper or journal and I'll read that.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Debunking the persistent myth that global warming stopped in 1998

September 27, 2013 - 12:30PM
Sophie Lewis

The latest climate change denial claim ahead of the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report is that global warming stopped in 1998. A slowing in the observed rate of global warming has prompted dubious suggestions that temperatures have not increased significantly in the past 15 years.

It's true that after rising rapidly in the 1990s, global average temperature increases at the earth's surface have slowed since 1998. But warming hasn't stopped.

Join Dr Lewis for a live chat from noon ahead of the release of the IPCC report. Simply leave a question or comment below.

The last decade was the hottest on record globally. Each year from 2000 to 2010, except 2008, was in the 10 warmest recorded globally.

What's most concerning is that it should be considerably cooler than average, not hotter. Since 1997, several natural climate factors have aligned that should have produced a discernible cooling effect on global temperatures.

A lull in solar activity from 2005 to 2010, combined with two very strong La Niña episodes from 2010 to 2012, would be expected to produce a strong decrease in global temperatures.

Yet the world hasn't cooled. On the contrary, global surface temperatures are moving in the opposite direction to natural climate variations, due to greenhouse gas warming.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/debunking-the-persistent-myth-that-global-warming-stopped-in-1998-20130927-2ui8j.html
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