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We got climate change wrong says IPCC - global warming estimates revised down; Global temperatures less sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than previously thought
Topic Started: 16 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM (15,931 Views)
Kulganis
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Shadow
9 Nov 2013, 12:37 PM
Actually, what you 'told me' before was some nonsense about the British Navy. I asked you for a link to your alleged British Navy data which you claim goes way back much further. Can you post that link to the British Navy data for me?
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One of the major pushes that we've done on this is with the English East India company in the period from the 1780s to the 1830s. About half of the logbooks that exist in the British library for those ships that trade between the UK and India or China have instrumental measurements that we're after on them.

[Philip Brohan] Charles Darwin's voyage on the Beagle is most famous for his great work on evolution, and his great zoological work. But actually Robert Fitzory, the Captain, and his crew also recorded the weather in their logs of the records at every point the ship visited.

[Rob Allan] We've also been looking at late 19th and early 20th century Antarctic expeditions which go down, obviously, to a region where we have particularly sparse data in the southern hemisphere.

[Philip Brohan] The numbers themselves give us recordings of temperature and pressure at a particular location - wherever the ships are. If we have hundreds or thousands of points' location data from ships, we feed that data into one of our computer models of the atmosphere, and out of that computer model of the atmosphere comes a weather map.

[Rob Allan] But instead of feeding in the current data to look at the future, you're putting in the data in the past - or some of the variables - and you're reusing the model and the understanding of the physics of the ocean atmosphere system that's in the models to reconstruct all the other variables that are interrelated physically. So you can get a 3D picture of the weather all over the globe.

[Philip Brohan] If we're worried about extreme weather - unusual events, very large heatwaves - then that perspective, that extra length of our records - give us more information about how likely events like that are to occur in the future.

http://www.oldweather.org/why_scientists_need_you#global_weather_reconstructions




It's a fascinating crowdsourcing project, 20% of the logbooks have been completed. That's 31642 pages and 7 voyages
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

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goldbug
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Don't waste your effort, shadow will spend the rest of the thread wriggling and backpeddling to try and obscure the fact he was talking out of his arse. As usual.


Shadow
8 Nov 2013, 10:14 AM
goldbug
8 Nov 2013, 10:09 AM


Then there is the ice core data scientists have collected.
Ice cores don't tell us about the extent of sea ice coverage.

He has no idea about the science. No idea.
Edited by goldbug, 10 Nov 2013, 04:33 AM.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Shadow
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goldbug
10 Nov 2013, 04:32 AM
Ha Ha
idiot
such a tool
you will lose in life
talking out of his arse
Right... so rather than actually trying to construct a cohesive argument, you're just going to call me names and hurl abuse.

Cool.

Be sure to let us know if you ever manage to find that British Navy data on the extent of sea ice coverage. :tu:


Kulganis
9 Nov 2013, 11:20 PM
It's a fascinating crowdsourcing project, 20% of the logbooks have been completed. That's 31642 pages and 7 voyages
Sounds interesting. Still, at best even when complete it's not going to cover more than a few centuries.

Won't help with arctic sea ice, but I guess they'll get reasonable information on other aspects of the climate, going back a bit further than we have today.
Edited by Shadow, 10 Nov 2013, 11:25 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Bardon
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I used to be a card carrying Coolist, that was up until this guy settled the science.

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Kulganis
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wow, uber lsd trip.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Thatguy
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Shadow
10 Nov 2013, 11:04 AM
Right... so rather than actually trying to construct a cohesive argument, you're just going to call me names and hurl abuse.

Cool.

Be sure to let us know if you ever manage to find that British Navy data on the extent of sea ice coverage. :tu:



Sounds interesting. Still, at best even when complete it's not going to cover more than a few centuries.

Won't help with arctic sea ice, but I guess they'll get reasonable information on other aspects of the climate, going back a bit further than we have today.
Shadow on this topic you don't construct cohesive arguments either. It's the same old half-understood rubbish with overly basic logic.

1. It does appear that in the majority of cases warming proceeds CO2. So what ? This is actually neither here not there. In fact it is a case FOR AGW, if true. It also points to potential positive feedback loops! ie. MORE risk. You think this means something good for your case?

I say YOUR case because surely the null hypothesis would be to accept scientific advice? Or is that not the case for you?
Edited by Thatguy, 11 Nov 2013, 04:16 PM.
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Shadow
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Thatguy
11 Nov 2013, 04:15 PM
Shadow on this topic you don't construct cohesive arguments either. It's the same old half-understood rubbish with overly basic logic.

1. It does appear that in the majority of cases warming proceeds CO2. So what ? This is actually neither here not there. In fact it is a case FOR AGW, if true. It also points to potential positive feedback loops! ie. MORE risk. You think this means something good for your case?

I say YOUR case because surely the null hypothesis would be to accept scientific advice? Or is that not the case for you?
I haven't said anything about CO2.

I was pointing out that there are no records on the extent of arctic sea ice beyond several decades ago.

The other general point I've made is that there is insufficient data (and no consensus) on the degree to which human activity is influencing climate change.

Apart from that, I'm not sure what you think 'my case' is?
Edited by Shadow, 11 Nov 2013, 04:23 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Admin
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Quote:
 
End this 'climate madness', Philippines tells global warming summit

November 12, 2013 - 12:16PM
Peter Hannam

The Philippines has made an impassioned plea to nations to act on climate change and prevent super typhoons such as Haiyan, which has devastated much of the country, from becoming “a way of life”.

The country's lead negotiator at the United Nations climate summit in Warsaw, Naderev Sano, said Haiyan was “was [like] nothing we have ever experienced before, or perhaps nothing that any country has ever experienced before”.

As many as 10,000 people are feared dead in the city of Tacloban alone, with rescues yet to reach many other areas in the region.

Mr Sano described his own family's struggle after the storm – possibly the most powerful ever recorded, with wind speeds reaching 314km/h by some accounts – with his brother “gathering bodies of the dead with his own two hands”.

“To anyone who continues to deny the reality that is climate change, I dare you to get off your ivory tower and away from the comfort of your armchair,” Mr Sano said, according to a transcript of his speech carried on a climate change website.

“You may want to pay a visit to the Philippines right now.”

Scientists say that limited data on cyclone activity, particularly for basins other than the North Atlantic, make it difficult to detect signs that climate change brought on by humans burning fossil fuels and land clearing is already contributing to making storms such as Haiyan stronger.

However, warming sea-surface temperatures – one element contributing to cyclonic development – are adding to the energy available when storms form, while rising sea levels mean the risk of inundation during such events is increased. Climate models also indicate that in the future such storms may actually reduce in number but become more powerful when they form, while a new paper has found rainfall patterns are already changing.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/end-this-climate-madness-philippines-tells-global-warming-summit-20131112-2xd4f.html
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Aussiehouseprices
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Shadow
11 Nov 2013, 04:21 PM
The other general point I've made is that there is insufficient data (and no consensus) on the degree to which human activity is influencing climate change.
Where do you get that idea from?

"A new survey of over 12,000 peer-reviewed climate science papers by our citizen science team at Skeptical Science has found a 97% consensus among papers taking a position on the cause of global warming in the peer-reviewed literature that humans are responsible."

"Of the papers that specifically examine the human and natural causes of global warming, virtually all conclude that humans are the dominant cause over the past 50 to 100 years."
http://skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-cook-et-al-2013.html
Edited by Aussiehouseprices, 12 Nov 2013, 03:33 PM.
Aussie House Prices blog
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Count du Monet
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Quote:
 
The Philippines has made an impassioned plea to nations to act on climate change and prevent super typhoons such as Haiyan, which has devastated much of the country, from becoming “a way of life”.


I wonder what the compelling evidence is that GW causes more violent storms?
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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