What are the odds of Tony trying to repeat the Howard housing bubble/boom by introducing new stimulus?
New FHB grants? Grants for non-FHBs (even worse!) Cut stamp duty? Make PPOR interest tax deductible? Ramp up migration and population growth?
Or will he do the opposite, let the market correct and blame the crash on his predecessors?
He will do nothing unless it is warranted. If action is needed (which it currently isn't), he will do whatever is necessary to prevent a housing crash.
So, in a way, yes he will protect the property market. Primarily by maintaining conditions for interest rates and unemployment to be low.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
What are the odds of Tony trying to repeat the Howard housing bubble/boom by introducing new stimulus?
New FHB grants? Grants for non-FHBs (even worse!) Cut stamp duty? Make PPOR interest tax deductible? Ramp up migration and population growth?
Or will he do the opposite, let the market correct and blame the crash on his predecessors?
a clue to the question you are asking might be in the percentage of GDP comes from housing. Housing as an economic driver is a global phenomenon with each part of the world in different part of the cycle. I know all about this because im Keynesian.
Pretty much as the opinion polls and betting agencies had foreshadowed, Australia now has a new Liberal/National Government. While it’s dangerous to ascribe too much in terms of their economic impact to elections in Australia as either side of politics are not radically different from each other in their core beliefs – there was perhaps more riding on this election than usual given the difficult period of minority government over the past three years and the more uncertain environment the Australian economy has now found itself in. This note looks at what is expected in terms of changes to policies and implications for the budget, the economy and the share market.
Policy change
Based on their election platform, key policy changes under the Coalition Government will include the following:
the abolition of the mining tax; the abolition of the carbon tax/Emissions Trading Scheme and its replacement with a direct action plan where companies will be paid to reduce emissions; a 1.5% cut in the company tax rate, although companies with income above $5m per annum will see this offset by a levy to pay for a paid parental leave scheme; a refocussing of government spending towards infrastructure and away from hand-outs like the “Schoolkid’s Bonus”; a delayed increase in the superannuation contribution; a reduction in the size of the public service; reduced spending on the National Broadband Network; various other savings such as reduced foreign aid, removal of carbon tax compensation payments, cancelling the low-income super contribution, ending the instant asset write-off; undertaking inquiries into the labour market, taxation, productivity & competition, the financial sector and infrastructure funding and an audit of government which will potentially pave the way for smaller government, reduced regulation & reinvigorated economic reform; and a greater focus on returning the budget to surplus
Taken together and assuming the policies are implemented, this should lead to smaller government, less regulation and over time improved productivity and growth in the economy.
Impact on the budget
Prior to the election, policy costings released by the Coalition indicated a cost to the budget over four years of just over $33bn, which is more than offset by budget savings of around $42bn. This results in net savings to the budget of just over $6bn on a cash basis over four years. Allowing for debt interest savings the total saving may be a bit more than this.
While the Coalition has not committed to the latest budget projections contained in the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) they give a rough guide to the impact of the Coalition’s proposed savings to date. The table below shows the latest PEFO budget balance projections in the first row, with a return to surplus not occurring until 2016-17 under the previous Labor Government’s policies. The Coalition’s net savings (second row) help improve the budget balance over time but only marginally, by just 0.1 to 0.2% of GDP per annum and a surplus is still not achieved until 2016-17 (third row). In other words, on current policies the Coalition essentially has the same overall budget strategy as the previous Labor Government!
Who knows. It's hard to know what this fucking government will do imo. They reckon they want to do some drastic shit, but the economy is so precarious.
His daughters must travel amongst rich cliques, so they'll probably be able to hook up with some rich guys. Or rather some guys with rich parents.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
In the case of Brisbane suburbs, housing prices are really not much more then 10 percent above late 2007 prices. In fact plenty of examples can be found on the Gold Coast, Sunnie Coast where prices are in fact lower.
Places like Strathpine, Deception bay, Bray Park, Forrest Lake, most Logan suburbs, prices are much the same.
Contrast that with the 6 years from 2001, where prices in some cases tripled in value.
I hope no one here voted for the LNP for affordable housing.
Housing growth in the last 6 years has in fact been quite subdued, at least as far as the Brisbane market goes.
Growth since late 2007 has been really only about 10 percent. It went down during the GFC, the stimulation didn't affect the market as much as mel and syd markets, then the market was dropping 6 months before the flood, and the flood finished it off, and the growth since has not come close to Perth, Melbourne, syd, Darwin.
Gold Coast and Sunnie coast markets, plenty of examples can be shown where prices are lower then late 2007.
Brisbane's outer suburbs, like Strathpine, bray park, Forrest lake, many logan suburbs show little or no price growth since late 2007.
Contrast this with the last 6 years of the Howard government. Many cheaper Brisbane suburbs tripled in value from 2001 to 2008.
In my view, if you voted LNP for more affordable housing, keep your expectations low.
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