The Syria Thread: Momentum building for Western military strike against Syria; President Bashar Assad's government responsible for chemical attack on civilians outside Damascus
Tweet Topic Started: 28 Aug 2013, 03:51 PM (5,679 Views)
A few things about this post . This is my bread and butter so sorry for the rant.
I heard and economic analyst tonight state that Syria represents less than 1% of world oil, the war has been ongoing for two years, so any strike will have no impact - this is bullshit.
The OP's post is also wide of the mark - so here is what is happening. Make of it what you will - but these are the geo-strategic machinations of what is happening.
QATAR (which have just had Al Jazeera approved for broad cast into the US - coincidence....not) and Saudi Arabia are the primary immediate beneficiaries of a Sunni controlled Syria. Saudi Arabia seeks to become the center and controller of an Sunni Islamic caliphate and will destabilise any adversary, both seek to engage in the new favorite fuel - gas and run pipelines directly through Syria to the Mediterranean. Both have been the main DIRECT channel of funds, arms, intelligence etc although a lot of that has been coming from the west to the Rebels.
The rebels are of course a hotch potch of western, Sunni backed crazies who are mere patsies - the gas attack was certainly by them - tons of evidence.
The US seek to remove Syria for obvious reasons - Iran and the last anti-American / non-compliant regime in the region to fall before the US leaves for Asia.
UK, France etc want the Syrians gone for cheaper gas, exploitation of fuel markets with Saudis / Qatar and most of all a removal of any reliance on Russian gas and oil.
Now NORMALLY - the Russians are not going to sit back and let this happen - no way, here's why - they are the main supplier of gas to Europe - numero uno - while the previous number one supplier of oil was - you guessed it Libya - primarily via Italy. Hence the last war. Russia has been pissing the Europeans and UK off since Litevenko and the gas crisis when Ukraine shut off the oil (edit : gas) - hence a new avenue has been sought and Syria is in the way. Syria is like a great big shit stain on the edge of the Med as far as the oil and gas giants are concerned.
Now - Russia also has a huge interest in Iran remaining stable because - well - look at a map and you will realize that Iran is basically Russia's anus - the US destroy Iran and Russia will have yanks swarming up its colon via the Caspian - one of the worlds richest regions for gas and oil as well.
So - Syria falls and that means the Russians are pretty vulnerable.
So unless the Russians have some offer on the table that they are no longer needing to supply all of Europe with its gas ? And another offer the table which someone placates their fears of having the YANKS controlling the Caspian and hence Russia's anus - then I think the Russians are going to continue with their SAM-3 deliveries to Syria - and now maybe even SAM-4 to Iran.
Now removing Syria also represents a slap in the face to what BOTH Russia and China have been saying for 24 months - no. And they are saying now - No - and the entire rebellion is a US staged coup anyway - and since Libya when China had to evacuate several thousand Chinese workers from the Oil fields using a Chinese navy ship (first time a Chinese military Naval ship had been there on combat status) the Chinese had contracts to develop fields along with Oil supplies which were handed over to Europe - the Chinese have said, categorically they will not back down again when their interests are threatened.
So - the Chinese have no direct interests in Syria - however they have VAST interests in Iran having built deep water ports and pipe lines along with India and Pakistan - along with new freeways all in readiness for access to new Iranian gas deals.
So - Syria goes to the US and UK and leaves Iran entirely vulnerable to attack and China and Russia left with egg all over their face, Russia's energy markets are screwed and China, India and Pakistan are all looking like losing their primary source of energy. Yeah - fuck - not going to happen Charlie.
So - basically EITHER some fantastic deal has been done (doubt it) and Russia and China have been given secret plans to free fusion energy - or - the US and UK are upping the ante in the most ridiculously dangerous game of brinkmanship since the Cuban Missile Crisis - and I think this may well be the case.
Iran has sent in another 4,000 troops, Russia is evacuating all personnel, both Russia and China are adamant about their warnings to not attack.
Fundamentally Syria is undergoing a coup run by the west using Sunni extremists - China and everyone else knows this - attacking Syria will make the west look really, REALLY bad and China and Russia may well be banking on this - but I think they have realised by now that no one really cares how bad or evil US / UK behave - nothing really changes - so there is nothing to be gained from making them look bad - they already look shit.
The real issue is going to be retaliation from cruise missiles - and I suspect this is where things will get nasty - Iran has 4,000 troops inside Syria, while Russia has been delivering BILLIONS in technical support - Syria could very well have anti-carrier missiles and this would spark off a whole new proxy war with Iran - with Russia and China fighting a defacto-proxy war via Iran via Syria.
Basically - the US / UK fire on Syria and Syria to everyone's absolute fucking amazement fires directly back at the fleet and kits them (they most certainly have the tech if Iran is helping them, and would be able to a shit load of damage if Russia has helped - and they have ) which would up the ante to the US and UK engaging in war words with Iran.
This will not go down well - absolutely not - this is a full push by the allies against the Russians and Chinese and I genuinely think that the west is going to-for the first time in a half a century - see what its like to have a non-colonial non-third world power push back.
Edit : The secret oil deal was disclosed weeks ago and was dismissed as bullshit -
Sharing your bread and butter can leave you with nothing on your own table as I am sue you also know. So are we on the brink on a 'necessary' conflict or can the US/UK take their time and pressure a deal to be done?
Putin Orders Massive Strike Against Saudi Arabia if syria attacked Russian Government outraged by Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultans terrorist threats :Putin”who the hell do these people think they are dealing with”
We've pillaged the planet to the point of ecological collapse, extracting tens of trillions in 'wealth'. We, the mighty European elect, have colonised, subjugated, invaded, looted, exploited and ravaged the non-European world, extracting even greater sums in the process (while killing hundreds of millions of 'collateral damage'). Yet, today, in the richest of these Western economies, the USA, UK, Australia, Canada, Western Europe etc, societies are in the death grip of the most destructive spiritual and psychological disease ever created by a malfunctioning mind, neo-liberal capitalism. Vast numbers of happy 'citizens' are being flung into poverty, want and misery and even more are hanging on by their finger-nails, while a tiny, insatiably avaricious elite grow fatter and fatter gobbling up more and more of the common wealth. Furthermore, to add a touch of the ridiculous to the insults heaped on injury, we are being asked to 'choose' between two major parties who feverishly proclaim their total allegiance to this morally insane, anti-human ideology. That is, laughably, proclaimed to be our 'democratic right'.
Investors fearing the impact of an attack on Syria ought to start worrying instead about things they can predict and control.
In other words – and with apologies to Nathan Rothschild, whose advocacy of buying during times of war is probably apocryphal – don't "buy when there is blood in the streets": hold.
Global markets have been roiled in recent days by a rising conviction that the United States will lead military strikes against the Syrian government in reprisal for its alleged use of chemical weapons on its own people. Emerging market assets were hit hard again on Wednesday, while Brent crude oil hit a six-month high of $117 a barrel. Gold
The news from Syria, wracked by a civil war, is and likely will continue to be tragic, but for the vast majority of investors by far the smartest thing to do is nothing.
Strikes on Syria very likely will happen, and very likely will have mild to moderate impacts on a variety of asset markets, but you, dear reader, are highly unlikely to get rich trying to figure out how or why.
Let me be clear: I am not saying leave politics to your elders and betters. Obviously, citizens of the countries involved have a right and obligation to form opinions and take positions on these things. What they probably ought not to do is take risks for themselves and create fee income for financial services firms by putting those opinions into investment practice.
First off, the way events will unfold in Syria is far from simple. The basic rolling news headline narrative – oppressive regime, faced with existential threat, commits atrocity(ies) and is bombed or faces no-fly zone by allies led by US – is pretty straightforward. How that plays out, however, is very complex, and the after-effects even more so.
If we examine some past conflicts, we might think we have a template of how to "play" Syria. Looking at the 1991 Gulf War, Kosovo in 1998-99, the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011, we can make some generalisations. On Wall Street the S&P 500 tends to sell off ahead of conflicts but recovers once they start. Oil tends to rise in the run-up, and sell off on the news or just before. Gold sometimes rises ahead of fighting and usually sells off when it begins. The dollar tends to divert from whatever its trend was before the idea of conflict arose, and reverts to that trend once shots are fired.
Well and good, but if you seriously want to put your retirement and future wealth at the mercy of these types of trends holding true, you are – again – either hugely overconfident or slightly desperate.
As Kenneth Lam, a markets strategist at Citigroup, points out, this time may be different.
"Syria is arguably more complex than these previous conflicts. Military objectives are also not as well defined. Russia and Iran will also weigh in both pre- and post-action. The usual market reaction may be more muted and short-lived because of greater uncertainties," Lam wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.
Michael Wittner, an oil analyst at Societe Generale, argued on Wednesday that oil could surge to $150 a barrel if the conflict affects important oil producers such as Iraq, in what would be a departure from the pattern in recent past conflicts.
Make no mistake, if this happens it will be a big deal. Emerging markets, which are facing their own potential funding crunch, particularly don't need high oil prices or a shock to the financial system just now. We could easily see an emerging market sell-off on oil turn into a sell-off in developed markets.
I don't think there will be a bloodbath in Syria unless it is of such a magnitude as to take all bets off everything.
The only conceivable mini outcome is a mini ‘surgical strike’ type hit on a chemical weapons factory – and even then I think the Russians would need to be bought off in some way (if for nothing else than to help massage the message to the Iranians). The prospect of a surgical strike alone is enough for Ben to keep any tapering thoughts toned down though. There were reports a day or so after the Damascus chemical bombing that the bases in Cyprus were being prepared. But there has been no immediate hit and the British vote has significantly diminished the prospect of anything happening straight away.
The reason there won't be anything bigger is that from Damascus to Jerusalem is about 210 km and the distance to Beirut is about 90 km – both over areas which have significant amounts of military hardware in them, and enough aggrieved peoples (with each other and outsiders) to really create a ‘get me out of here’ type scenario.
You cant take your pick of ways this would spread well beyond Syria very quickly.
First up there's the Kurds (population in Syria, Eastern Turkey, Western Iran, Northern Iraq) who would quite plausibly want to establish something of the home they have been missing out on – the ones in Syria would be a significant player in any Syrian civil/intervention and the Turks, Iraqis and Iranians wouldn't be very happy about that prospect – mainly because the Kurds in these countries would once again be keen about linking up with them.
Second up there's the Israel issue. Any serious military intervention in Syria would almost certainly involve Israel, and of course the first thing the Syrians (or their proxies) would do is suggest to someone somewhere (in their droves) that they may care to don a backpack full of explosives and head off towards a bus stop in Tel Aviv somewhere.
Third up there is the Iranians. They are best mates of the Syrians and dont have many friends left. They do have a significant (and seemingly well organised) military presence in Syria. I think one could reasonably assume that the moment anything more substantial than a one off rocket or aircraft attack was underway, they presumably would be enthusiastic about giving the Israeli’s a biffing. The Israeli’s of course are thoroughly aware of this and could reasonably be assumed to have their own thoughts on biffing the Iranians (if not the Syrians too) first and comprehensively so.
Any form of Israeli involvement would not be popular in the wider Islamic world (to put it mildly). Given that there are previously aggrieved (with a range of despots military dictators and Royal families) Islamic movements in Libya Egypt Syria Iraq Saudi Arabia Yemen and the Gulf States, the word ‘Jihad’ is almost certain to be tossed around somewhere and that any Jihad could become a destabilising factor in a range of locations in the crude oil producing world.
Then there is the Russian angle. The Russians have sold large volumes of particularly useful military kit to the Al Assads and have a ‘Naval base’ (collection of sheds alongside a wharf at Tartus in Northern Syria) there. Included amongst these sales have been the latest generation of anti aircraft Anti missile installations – ostensibly for use against the Israeli’s (who have a good track record of just flying over and whacking factories themselves when the mood overtakes them) but which presumably would be figuring largely in the minds of US and British military planners at this very moment. The Russians don't like the idea of Western military types taking it upon themselves to uninstall governments near them, because they generally suspect that if they aren’t firm on the idea then those japesters in Washington (some may remember Dick Cheney’s thoughts on the subject) may take it upon themselves to uninstall things in the Moscow region. But the Russians wont be all that unhappy with a little bit of talk about biffo in the region because they like a higher oil price high, and they have some (small scale) budget issues (and their budget is very reliant on crude and gas prices). Anything driving the price up say 10-15 USD/BBl is arguably positive for the Moscow end of things (Note the article in the British Telegraph this week suggesting the Sauds have already been in Moscow floating the idea of a Russian arrangement with OPEC which would control oil production volumes and prices in exchange for Russian acquiescence to a whack in Syria – almost the sole 100% certain outcome of any talk/thought or action involving Syria will be a spike in oil prices).
Also Russian related is the nuclear plant in Iran – Bushehr – which has been built by the Russians and will soon be handed over to the Iranians (which should do wonders for crude prices) and which the Russians provide about the sole remotely reliable factor on managing the prospect that the japesters in Teheran wont start reprocessing nuclear materials for urban redevelopment purposes in Israel or elsewhere in the demonic western world.
Not positive for the Russians would be a general regional conflagration within a thousand km of where there will be an Olympic games next year (across land borders controlled by peoples not really liking Russians) which aggrieved middle eastern types could go quite some way towards boosting security costs for.
Then back in Syria we have the standard Sunni/Shiite issues which could be expected to complicate things – that's in addition to the Kurdish/non Kurdish thing.
What else do we have…… Loads of unhappy Palestinians in camps in Jordan, Loads more effectively blockaded in their own town council in Gaza (for whom another Intifada presumably would be that much of a problem). The Turks and the Israelis aren't talking to one another. Then on top of that there is Cyprus (basically just an aircraft carrier off the coast of Syria) where the Turks and Greeks don't see eye to eye, where the Greeks are absolutely broke and with loads of people who have had some of their savings lifted to bail out the banks by the EU, and who prospective gas producing waters with the Lebanese Syrians Israelis etc. Iraq – 55 people blowing themselves up in a seemingly coordinated manner this week (to provide a sighter on the sorts of behaviour that may be replicated elsewhere).
The surgical strike on Syria would need some agreement with the Russians (if only to tone down the Iranians). That may be a goer if the Russians could smoothed over with an oil related soother. So look for the price of crude to rise.
Beyond that, it would surely have to be all bets off – everyone get out of every market and potentially large scale meltdown. With the price of crude to the moon.
Don't forget the US also has a debt ceiling coming into play.
But for now, ease back on tapering thoughts is my call, and brace for some uplift in crude. Should help fill news rundowns with conjecture.
The rebels are of course a hotch potch of western, Sunni backed crazies who are mere patsies - the gas attack was certainly by them - tons of evidence.
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