The Syria Thread: Momentum building for Western military strike against Syria; President Bashar Assad's government responsible for chemical attack on civilians outside Damascus
Tweet Topic Started: 28 Aug 2013, 03:51 PM (5,669 Views)
I have had a chat with some mates in Moscow last night, both noted that that story had come out of the Saudi side, and referred to an Armenian website from where the news had made it into Russia.
Both noted the possibility of some sort of global deal being done at the G20 on 5-6 September (presumably Kevin’s last dance on the global stage) and from there the discussion moved onto conjecture about whether there was action before (and tidied up at the meeting) or happened after (after agreement is reached at the meeting).
Either way there would be no real movement without both the Russians and the Chinese being in on it. They would presumably be needed to whisper sweet nothings into the ears of the Iranians (the last mates of the Syrians, the regional fruitcakes par excellence, reasonably well armed, Israel haters par excellence).
The other thing to note is that Syria is not Libya. They do have a military, and it is considered to have quite a reasonable degree of capability (although these things are always a tad difficult to know beforehand – we may note the Iraqi Presidential Guard didn't bat down the line the way they were expected).
But the Russian negotiations on oil markets as a means of buying out their complaisance on this is plausible.
They have long been unhappy with OPEC (of which they arent a member) for pumping more and at lower prices than the Russians really like. OPEC for their part have long been unhappy with the Russian approach to just keep pumping when OPEC is trying to tighten. Also worth noting have been recent attempts to get the gas world into a sort of Gas OPEC with the Qataris also turning up in Moscow for negotiations on an intermittent basis, as well as keeping an eye on the Kuwaiti sovereign wealth fund and its level of investment in Russia.
The Russian economy is is virtually a straight play on energy (oil and gas) and revenues underpin the Russian budget (which has traditionally been fairly tight but has been loosened a bit this year with the prospect of economic stimulus expected this Northern Spring). The other thing to note is that Russia is drifting closer to the point where it moves from always having a Current Account Surplus to start being a net borrower again (after about a generation of always being in surplus and paying off loads of Soviet era debt).
One of the traditional plays in Russian economics is to expect Russia to state some supportive words about Irans right to nuclear power, or the State rights, when it is looking to buttress the crude price (and support the RUB, Russian budget etc). The interesting thing to note here is that the Russians have been mum since word of the chemical attack by Al Assad.
The thought of a Russian oil market deal with OPEC (Saudi Arabia) as a means of buying off their silence on military intervention in Syria would obviously mean crude (in particular – and it is worth noting that Urals is quite different to the stuff out of the Middle East) spikes sharply higher during intervention but then remains elevated with some sort of Russian OPEC supply agreement in play. I am not all that sure either side would stick with such agreements post intervention, and other OPEC members would be doubtful also.
The other thing such a deal may bring into play is tensions between the Chinese and Russians over energy purchases and prices. The Chinese would presumably be more hostile to both Military intervention and higher energy prices. They have largely held off on deals to buy energy (in serious volumes at least) from the Russians for a long time and have bought generally cheaper stuff available from Australia (inter alia).
Back on the military front you would also have to assume that if there were to be military intervention then the Turks would have to be in on it, as well as the Israelis (presumably told to sit there in silence for fear of firing up a middle east still unhappy with a range of despots and dubious military rulers, as well as the Israelis).
If there is any armed intervention by either the US or their UK France sidekicks, then you would assume USD up sharply, crude up sharply, RUB sharply lower at the outset but well higher over time, and a lot of additional EU and Middle East outlays on security.
Apparently the word on the streets there is that may well be some form of ‘surgical strike’ option against a chemical weapons plant in play – just to make sure Bashar has the message.
Elsewhere, US planes are in place at Gecitkale in North Cyprus, and on the other side of the island there seems to be a lot of activity underway at Larnaca and Limassol.
I hazard the spike in long rates is the motivation and the FED has ran out of ammo. The US wants lower oil prices, the Russians and Syrians like the higher prices. The question is whether the Russians are willing defend Syria? This doesn't look likely.
Of course the main reason for high oil prices is the FED's monetary policy, but the yanks won't back peddle on that one.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!! You are no longer customer, you are property!!!
Oh well, hopefully it might crash housing, and BP ends up living on suimin.
Prawn AND chicken? Yuck! One or the other thank you.
This dude reckons it will be Lebanon, Sudan, one or two others and finally Iran.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
I thought that the OP was a little harsh on his assessment of Iran. They don't hate anyone.
The Saudi/US/Israel axis are pushing hard for the clear run on Iran. Pretty obvious as to whats going on to me. More death squads, more divide and conquer, more erosion of democracy all in the name of US foreign policy which is Israeli foreign policy.
I thought that the OP was a little harsh on his assessment of Iran. They don't hate anyone.
The Saudi/US/Israel axis are pushing hard for the clear run on Iran. Pretty obvious as to whats going on to me. More death squads, more divide and conquer, more erosion of democracy all in the name of US foreign policy which is Israeli foreign policy.
Iran denies Israels right to exist, but they don't hate them..
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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