As far as the journalism goes and the interpretation of the data, I think that bullshit is the technical term for it.
It would be dangerous to start basing investment decisions on it.
Whats dangerous about waiting for this period to pass? Everything seems crazy at the moment, especially the amount of money the bank is willing to lend me. It's much more than I can safely repay. I figure if they'd give that to me, they'd give that to anyone. Wouldn't that be putting prices up? But prices seem like they're falling anyway.
Whats dangerous about waiting for this period to pass? Everything seems crazy at the moment, especially the amount of money the bank is willing to lend me.
there's plenty on here who have been waiting 10 years for "the right moment"
join them by all means...
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
As far as the journalism goes and the interpretation of the data, I think that bullshit is the technical term for it.
It would be dangerous to start basing investment decisions on it.
Whats dangerous about waiting for this period to pass? Everything seems crazy at the moment, especially the amount of money the bank is willing to lend me. It's much more than I can safely repay. I figure if they'd give that to me, they'd give that to anyone. Wouldn't that be putting prices up? But prices seem like they're falling anyway.
Well in the end you have to make that judgement by yourself. I suggest that you look at as many homes as possible to see for yourself, and keep repeating that exercise.
Regardless of whether an article is bullish or bearish you will be at the mercy of some ones interpretation and their desire to sell newspapers. No analysis beats wearing out a pair of sneakers looking at the market in your area of interest.
I think that people who wait for a favourable report in the local newspaper as a signal to buy will pretty much always miss the boat.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Well in the end you have to make that judgement by yourself. I suggest that you look at as many homes as possible to see for yourself, and keep repeating that exercise.
Regardless of whether an article is bullish or bearish you will be at the mercy of some ones interpretation and their desire to sell newspapers. No analysis beats wearing out a pair of sneakers looking at the market in your area of interest.
I think that people who wait for a favourable report in the local newspaper as a signal to buy will pretty much always miss the boat.
Maybe you're right, but the boats I'm looking at don't seem to be going anywhere too quick anyway so hopefully I have some time.
Whats dangerous about waiting for this period to pass? Everything seems crazy at the moment, especially the amount of money the bank is willing to lend me. It's much more than I can safely repay. I figure if they'd give that to me, they'd give that to anyone. Wouldn't that be putting prices up? But prices seem like they're falling anyway.
Honestly from my experience if you wait too long (not years) the money you spend in Tullamarine might buy an equivalent house in Deer Park. I have been keeping an eye on some areas for ages and would be well ahead today if I pulled the trigger 95% of the time. The only danger that i've seen happens right at the top of the mania but when you are there you will know it. I had the same mindset in 2008 you have today and it has bitten me in the arse.
As Peter said, get out there and have a look if you can. Also check realestate.com.au every couple of days to see how the agents are marketing the properties. If they start doing POA its a sign they're getting overly confident.
Well in the end you have to make that judgement by yourself. I suggest that you look at as many homes as possible to see for yourself, and keep repeating that exercise.
Regardless of whether an article is bullish or bearish you will be at the mercy of some ones interpretation and their desire to sell newspapers. No analysis beats wearing out a pair of sneakers looking at the market in your area of interest.
I think that people who wait for a favourable report in the local newspaper as a signal to buy will pretty much always miss the boat.
Maybe you're right, but the boats I'm looking at don't seem to be going anywhere too quick anyway so hopefully I have some time.
Tullamarine is a fair way out, so you might be correct in that area.
Inner city I believe is rising strongly, but different areas will be adjusting at their own pace.
Anyway, best of luck.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
It is not Dave. If you were a betting man you could use past data to estimate the odds of prices falling versus the odds of prices rising and clearly the longshot gamble is to bet on prices falling, Melbourne has posted annual price falls maybe 5 times over the past 30 years
Don't get too caught up with the cheap house dreamers on two bit internet forums that censure opposing views. I don't think Melbourne will go crazy price wise but I cannot see prices falling from here as they are just now reaching levels of prices a good few years ago.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Thanks everyone, I've got my heart set on the area for personal reasons, plus I fly interstate alot. Not being distracted by alot of other areas, and not needing to be close to the city, I think I'll be able to keep a close eye on it and see how it goes.
The best time to buy is when you am afford to and you find the right property. If you are trying to guess the market then you will most likely get it wrong unless you are heavily focused on alot of areas and attend auctions, sales offices, home opens every week. If you wait for a media release you are likely months behind the trend.
Be careful waiting, the stronger and rapid growth of the inner suburbs tends to filter out over time as buyers are pushed further out due to price rises. Outer suburbs do have plenty of stock on market now but that is almost 50% less then just 12 to 18 months ago.
In my opinion Melbourne bottomed out in the last 12 months and will continue to grow for the next 4 to 5 years.
Watch the stock levels over the next few weeks or month, if stock is falling this will push prices higher over time so keep an eye on it.
My own view is Melbourne will see a substantial reduction in stock levels over the next 3 months which will result in a lot more competition for properties in early 2014.
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