APF bulls are getting overly excited about this dead cat bounce or in my opinion, temporary crack-up boom.
Crack-up boom. The final short-lived boom that occurs in the last stages of a seemingly endless inflation. The crack-up boom results from a “flight into goods or real values” (q.v.) and marks the end of an inflation by a complete breakdown of the monetary system.
This should be an interesting experiment, we can revisit the thread in two years time and see who was right, bulls or bears.
Nominal price change based on ABS index by end of Q3 2015. I voted down 11-20%. 20% is whats needed to get prices to a sensible and affordable level IMHO.
If you have predictions for individual cities please explain in the thread.
Up 20% nationally, up 30% in Sydney. A 30% nominal rise for Sydney over the next two years would bring the Sydney house price to income ratio back up to 2003 levels - i.e. Sydney house prices would become as affordable as they were back in 2003 (well, actually more affordable in 'mortgage repayment to income' terms, assuming interest rates remain lower than in 2003).
APF bulls are getting overly excited about this dead cat bounce or in my opinion, temporary crack-up boom.
Crack-up boom. The final short-lived boom that occurs in the last stages of a seemingly endless inflation. The crack-up boom results from a “flight into goods or real values” (q.v.) and marks the end of an inflation by a complete breakdown of the monetary system.
This should be an interesting experiment, we can revisit the thread in two years time and see who was right, bulls or bears.
Nominal price change based on ABS index by end of Q3 2015. I voted down 11-20%. 20% is whats needed to get prices to a sensible and affordable level IMHO.
If you have predictions for individual cities please explain in the thread.
Sydney is already running at a pretty high rate already, almost 6% a quarter.
Perth is seeing above 10% annual growth at the moment and the plus $1m mark is only now starting to move a bit. Big mining royalties, a big tick up in residential building, massive Capex spending (despite some fall offs, spending is still huge for the next few years), some big government infrastructure projects and a likely fantastic WA wheat crop all make Perth a good news story.
Sydney is one of the best cities in the world and offers pretty reasonable prices to rent just now, prices have been stagnant during a time of population growth, so there is plenty of room for a bit of sustainable home building. IMHO, Sydney could go completely daft, and it is all due to the pent up demand created by the doom and gloomers who destroyed confidence in real estate for the past 5 plus years.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
I believe Brisbane will not perform as well as some expect.
Many underestimate the effect the coasts (particularly the GC) have on Brisbane. The northern top of the GC would be considered an outer burb of Brisbane in some cities.
I believe Brisbane will not perform as well as some expect.
Many underestimate the effect the coasts (particularly the GC) have on Brisbane. The northern top of the GC would be considered an outer burb of Brisbane in some cities.
Fair point that.
I'm pretty sure beenleigh down is gold coast though !!
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