Oh Peter. I have seen whole areas in the world go to the dogs. When the rot starts, it does not just stop. The thing to keep in mind is that the GC is great place for the bogan to invest now so keep hoping and praying. So, while I say that some properties look like good value, they do so at the moment. Once all those around it have been snapped up by someone who has been sold the dream then it may not be quite such a good deal.
As mentioned before, quite a gamble. Even at today's prices.
Thanks for the advice hoofa, I do understand what you are saying. The deal was attractive for a couple of reasons and it was only a very small cash commitment for me, but I don't wish to go into further detail on the internet.
Cheers.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Thanks for the advice hoofa, I do understand what you are saying. The deal was attractive for a couple of reasons and it was only a very small cash commitment for me, but I don't wish to go into further detail on the internet.
Cheers.
Peter I would be particularly worried about the GC demographics. From what I have seem, the white shoe brigade moved in during the 70's and 80's. Having said that I did find two cash positive commercial properties on the GC with very solid tenants. One sells old age scooters...
Thanks for the advice hoofa, I do understand what you are saying. The deal was attractive for a couple of reasons and it was only a very small cash commitment for me, but I don't wish to go into further detail on the internet.
GC. RE is a gamble, pure and simple. A gamble based on the fact that it has fallen 50% and the assumption that because Australian property rebounded after the previous recessions it will rebound again now.
After a 50% fall I think the downside risk is minimum (unlike the rest of Aus).
I doubt the people who snapped up bargains in detroit, just before the bulldozers moved in would agree with that. Employment is the key, Money = higher home prices. The GC is just one big shopping mall with no real industry, that's it's problem. It's mobile phone and designer handbag shops support half the residents, and centrelink supports the other half. But besides that, it may never come back for other reasons. Consider the IEA's prediction of a 4 degree rise in global temperatures over the next 2 decades. That may not come to pass, but if it does the gold coast will be under 10 meters of water.
- The 4°C Scenario (4DS) takes into account recent pledges made by countries to limit emissions and step up efforts to improve energy efficiency. It serves as the primary benchmark in ETP 2012 when comparisons are made between scenarios. Projecting a long-term temperature rise of 4°C, the 4DS is broadly consistent with the World Energy Outlook New Policies Scenario through 2035 (IEA, 2011). In many respects, this is already an ambitious scenario that requires significant changes in policy and technologies. Moreover, capping the temperature increase at 4°C requires significant additional cuts in emissions in the period after 2050. http://www.iea.org/publications/scenariosandprojections/
But of course we can safely dismiss the International Energy Agencies conclusions because "That could never happen to us!"
<reaches for remote control -- turns footy show on -- opens 3rd can of beer>
And if the economy turns downward? Will it get worse?
Ok, Interesting. You need to work a plan out for if it does get worse. What if the economy gets better??? No one knows the answer to that, no one. What if a chemical weapon is dropped on Sydney or a meteor hits New York??? What if you get drunk and fall asleep in the toilet of a gay bar while the American fleet is in town??? Then you really are fucked. If you get a great deal both people work to pay it off, not make minimum payments and spend your money on going to the footie and day spas. You can make things work. There are always deals around and this proves it. And anyone that says property in Australia is to expensive is a spive. It is not true. What they are really saying,is the property that everyone wants is to expensive for them. They would like to see some almighty crash and Gina Rinheart be forced to sell her family home, the trolls of the "property world" would then buy her house with government assistance. And get their dole payments and pizzas home delivered, with a carton of beer. Do your research and talk to old successful people that have done this for 20 years plus. They will help you. If you want to catch fish go work for an old fisherman. For "free" if you have to. Good luck. Peter :pop:
hoofarted
8 Sep 2013, 11:10 AM
I was talking about everywhere. As I made the statement first, you came up short asshole.
Hi guys can we please remain objective, all ideas are good more ideas are better. Peter :pop:
Demand for land in the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast has collapsed with lot production levels at less than a third of levels in 2007 and 2008, according to research firm BIS Shrapnel.
A 30-year low for net interstate migration into Queensland in 2010/11 compounded by an excess dwelling supply and a reduced affordability advantage over Brisbane has slashed demand for new dwellings, BIS Shrapnel says.
It says supply is further constrained by limited access to finance for developers due to lingering financial constraints after the global financial crisis.
“We expect any upturn in the both the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast markets to be relatively slow,” BIS Shrapnel’s Angie Zigomanis says.
“There is little pent up demand in both markets despite the low level of new dwelling supply, while local economic conditions remain weak.
“Two of the main economic drivers of both regions are tourism and construction, and while there is some light at the end of the tunnel with large social infrastructure projects commencing in both regions, it will be some time before these two sectors can contribute substantially to employment growth.”
But he says low level of new dwelling activity means excess stock is being absorbed and vacancy rates are rising which will lead to an improvement in residential demand.
But any recovery hinges on stronger conditions in Brisbane.
He forecasts a rise in lot production levels in 2013/14 – although he says activity will remain painfully low until stronger rises emerge from 2014/15.
Lot production will double to 2,600 lots in the Gold Coast and 2,100 lots in the Sunshine Coast by 2016/17 but will remain well below the peak of 2006/07, BIS Shrapnel predicts.
He says developers may reduce lot sizes to boost affordability though new lifestyle home buyers may not accept smaller lots.
O dear, I thought the Gold Coast had bottomed and was recovering? I guess the Bulls got it wrong. Yet again.
Yep it has and prices are rising in houses in the lower price levels, but not yet in the higher priced houses. I've had two people tell me this week that prices have risen about 10%. Both are looking to buy.
This article on land demand should have been written in 2010. He is three years late.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Ok, Interesting. You need to work a plan out for if it does get worse.
If it does get worse I would probably be a buyer.
Quote:
What if the economy gets better???
Then I will be in the same position I am now.
Quote:
No one knows the answer to that, no one.
I wasn't asking for a prediction, more cause and effect. If the economy goes into recession, will GC and similar drop even more? I'm looking for a bargain.
Quote:
What they are really saying,is the property that everyone wants is to expensive for them. They would like to see some almighty crash and Gina Rinheart be forced to sell her family home, the trolls of the "property world" would then buy her house with government assistance.
Yes, the short side is always predatory when you are long. It's the type of hypocrisy you expect. Seriously, I don't give a f&ck about YOUR wealth or the price of YOUR assets, and if you claim you care about mine, you are lying. If I can get a nice place in the GC Hinterland for 30% of what the last guy paid for it, I will. And if you think that is predatory, f&ck you.
Quote:
Do your research and talk to old successful people that have done this for 20 years plus.
I've done my research, now I am waiting for my price. I don't need to speak to some delusional old duffer who thinks it's some kind of basic human right to sell a property for more than you paid for it.
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