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When will the Australian house price crash begin?; We've been waiting 12 years since now since the first crash call...
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2013, 10:48 PM (7,217 Views)
billy bob
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foxbat101
5 Sep 2013, 10:43 AM

What i have learnt up todate is that at any one time there are a number of asset classes bottoming and a number peaking.
And some starting to rise from the bottom and a number starting to fall from their peaks.

So if you monitor markets you can buy into assets at the bottom and if you wish move out of markets reaching their peak.
Good luck.
Peter :pop:
So did you buy silver or gold back in 2004 when it was at a 20 year bottom? Did you sell it yet?
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peter fraser
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Bardon
6 Sep 2013, 10:23 PM
It would be good to hear why those that voted next year think that a crash could start so soon, without any storm clouds on the current horizon, black swans aside.




We had a correction in 1974, again in 1981, then again in 1991, again in 2001/02 and in 2011.

Pretty much as regular as clockwork.

Next one maybe 2021.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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goldbug
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When will Sydney property prices ever resume their upward climb? They are 10 years behind the nation now.
When will the much touted sydney construction boom begin, still no sign of that.
Why are property investors so fixated on a CRASH!!! Do they want it to happen so they can have an excuse for bailing out of a dead end deal.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

This guy should have bought a house not waited till the prices came down.
Peter
:pop:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/colorado-peeper-hid-portable-toilet-sentenced-article-1.1442306

http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Sydneyite
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goldbug
6 Sep 2013, 11:14 PM
When will Sydney property prices ever resume their upward climb? They are 10 years behind the nation now.
WTF are you talking about? Have you actually looked at Sydney property prices and stats lately?

Peaked 2003, exceeded that peak in 2007, exceeded that later peak in 2010. exceed that peak again in 2013 (currently +20% to 2003 peak levels and climbing according to ABS) and currently going gang-busters. The upwards climb is happening RIGHT NOW! How does that put Sydney 10 years behind the rest of the country? It's actually that Sydney moves 5-10 years ahead of everywhere else, responding sooner to credit liberalisation, income growth, implementing housing stock improvement and so on, compared to elsewhere in oz.

My prediction is most of Oz (except for Perth if China/mining boom continues) will perform from now on for a while like Sydney from 2003-2010, while Sydney roars ahead back to the sort of premium it used to have in the 80s and 90s.
Edited by Sydneyite, 7 Sep 2013, 01:55 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Bardon
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Sydneyite
7 Sep 2013, 01:53 AM


My prediction is most of Oz (except for Perth if China/mining boom continues) will perform from now on for a while like Sydney from 2003-2010, while Sydney roars ahead back to the sort of premium it used to have in the 80s and 90s.

Its kind of good to think that things are getting back to normal with the Sydney property market leading the cycle once again. You could almost chart the slow moving ripple of rising prices outwards from the harbour particularly up the eastern seaboard.

That is one of the beauties of timing this thing, its that slow moving that you can easily buy ahead of it. I watched quite a few do this 2000-2005, nearly jumped in myself. By the time I got it and was market ready the wave was just hitting Central Qld, but for one reason or another I didn't jump in and got involved in some crappy investments in the US instead.

The Sydney construction market is also rising from its long slumber with the North West Rail Link kicking things off. There are a lot of major infrastructure contracts coming over the horizon and this is the first time in a long time that Sydney will have had that level of major project activity.

Edited by Bardon, 7 Sep 2013, 06:57 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

goldbug
6 Sep 2013, 11:14 PM
When will the much touted sydney construction boom begin, still no sign of that.
http://www.theadviser.com.au/breaking-news/28987-ten-year-high-for-housing

28 August 2013

'The number of properties being constructed in Sydney has reached a 10-year high, jumping by more than one third in a year'
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Black Panther
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peter fraser
6 Sep 2013, 11:10 PM
We had a correction in 1974, again in 1981, then again in 1991, again in 2001/02 and in 2011.

Pretty much as regular as clockwork.

Next one maybe 2021.
What, Mopsy will be pushing 50 by then. He needs a crash NOW !!!
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mango66
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peter fraser
6 Sep 2013, 11:10 PM
We had a correction in 1974, again in 1981, then again in 1991, again in 2001/02 and in 2011.

Pretty much as regular as clockwork.

Next one maybe 2021.
Yeah but in each one of those examples can you show the price of houses v single income. The difference between 74 and 2011 would be mind blowing ....a wake up call of sorts.
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doubleview
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mango66
7 Sep 2013, 10:50 AM
Yeah but in each one of those examples can you show the price of houses v single income. The difference between 74 and 2011 would be mind blowing ....a wake up call of sorts.
Doesn't match their blueprint the funny fucks heads will just go in the sand!!
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