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When will the Australian house price crash begin?; We've been waiting 12 years since now since the first crash call...
Topic Started: 4 Sep 2013, 10:48 PM (7,218 Views)
mel
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dave
5 Sep 2013, 07:40 PM
lol.
right on.
well, good luck with that new paradigm.
i don't need luck. Im a keynesian.
Edited by mel, 5 Sep 2013, 07:43 PM.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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Blondie girl
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mel
5 Sep 2013, 07:41 PM
i don't need luck. Im a keynesian.
Oooohhh really

You getting delirious
;)



I did offer to give bear extremist Timo my kids bubble machines, coz my 7 yr old twin boys don't want them....but he refused...

Don't know why, they are in excellent condition...
Well off to be donated ..

Timo
If you use those machines I can assure you they make lots of bubbles....good fun.
Oh well too bad.
Edited by Blondie girl, 5 Sep 2013, 10:28 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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mango66
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Shadow
4 Sep 2013, 10:48 PM
I've been hearing about the imminent crash since around 2007 which is when I started posting on forums.

The first known call was in 2001 by Neil Jenman...

We've had few polls like this before, going back to GHPC days, and the general consensus among the bears is usually that the crash starts next quarter or next year.

But 12 years later, we're still waiting for 'The Bubble' to pop. So when does the big crash begin?
Do you think that prices have kept increasing over the last decade under normal circumstances.? Do you think there has been any pressure put on the government and RBA to lower interest rates to protect those in debt from insolvency.?
Edited by mango66, 5 Sep 2013, 11:09 PM.
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Bardon
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mel
5 Sep 2013, 07:41 PM
i don't need luck. Im a keynesian.

You wouldn't say that if you knew how vile a buggerer of young boys he actually was.



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Veritas
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Bardon
5 Sep 2013, 11:11 PM

You wouldn't say that if you knew how vile a buggerer of young boys he actually was.


Charming way to speak about one of the greatest minds of the 20th century.

Into the young blokes yourself is it?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

mango66
5 Sep 2013, 11:09 PM
Do you think that prices have kept increasing over the last decade under normal circumstances.?
What is a 'normal' circumstance?

Quote:
 
Do you think there has been any pressure put on the government and RBA to lower interest rates to protect those in debt from insolvency.?
Rates have been rising for most of the last decade. Rates were in a raising cycle for seven years, and in a cutting cycle for three years of the past decade.

So I think there has been pressure put on the government and RBA to both raise and lower interest rates.

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 5 Sep 2013, 11:17 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Bardon
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Veritas
5 Sep 2013, 11:14 PM
Charming way to speak about one of the greatest minds of the 20th century.

Into the young blokes yourself is it?

The facts stand for themselves, I view him as a complete and utter fucking useless rich kid, lying, bludging, treasonous, drug fucked, filthy, procurer of young boys myself. Probably the last remnants of the empire in fact.

No I am into chicks since you asked.


Edited by Bardon, 5 Sep 2013, 11:25 PM.
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herbie
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So to answer your own question yourself Shadow, in what year of Our Lord AD (as in Anno Domini) do YOU opine the Oz housing crash might begin? :re:
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

herbie
5 Sep 2013, 11:27 PM
So to answer your own question yourself Shadow, in what year of Our Lord AD (as in Anno Domini) do YOU opine the Oz housing crash might begin? :re:
I think this current upturn has a few more years to run, and will peak nationally sometime around 2016.

Whether or not it is followed by a crash rather than a normal cyclical downturn will depend on the strength of the boom over the next few years.
Edited by Shadow, 5 Sep 2013, 11:34 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Bardon
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It would be good to hear why those that voted next year think that a crash could start so soon, without any storm clouds on the current horizon, black swans aside.




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