i wonder what the results might be if someone posted the same poll at MB good point but the price of money matters and we still have bullets in the holster. Expecting a disaster within the next 12 months under these conditions is more of an emotional prediction than a rational one IMHO.
Once again,
mouse think about a future,
based on intuition,
and soundbite ('bullet in holster'),
which really the crumbs of narrative,
it hear from master or well-sounding guru.
Price of the money is artificial construct,
and instant expert pop out of every water cooler convention and mojito festival in a 2013.
Glen the Stevens, nutty theories, and fractional reserve,
as common as talk about a Souths and a Manly back in pre-boom boom time.
take an average home bought in Sydney in say 2003, add tens years worth of mortgage interest on the loan, and then try and sell the home for that value today.
And if you deduct the rental that you would have otherwise paid over the 10 years, how will it work out then?
Much better of course, better by a long way. But take that cash difference between the rental cost and the mortgage repayment, probably equal to the rental paid, and invest that over the 10 years. Now you still don't own a house but you have a couple of hundred thousand saved. The person who bought still has 20 years to pay on the mortgage. If they could pay it over 20 years total they have a great income, so they could have saved a lot more if they hadn't bought.
Either way paying compound interest over 20 or 30 years makes sense only in an environment when house prices double every 10 years or less along with inflation. That is why it looked like a no-brainer from 1960 till 2000 and why Australians fell in love with property as an investment last decade. If they had known that property was to fall in price for 7 years they would have never signed up. And it's no better now is it. Our economy is on life support interest rates and all economic drivers are collapsing. Will property and rents go up from here? Like a snowballs chance in Hell.
I've been hearing about the imminent crash since around 2007 which is when I started posting on forums.
The first known call was in 2001 by Neil Jenman...
We've had few polls like this before, going back to GHPC days, and the general consensus among the bears is usually that the crash starts next quarter or next year.
But 12 years later, we're still waiting for 'The Bubble' to pop. So when does the big crash begin?
Hi Shadow, I have been investing all my life, my dad and mom did all their lives and my grandparents did as well. What i have learnt up todate is that at any one time there are a number of asset classes bottoming and a number peaking. And some starting to rise from the bottom and a number starting to fall from their peaks. Every now and again there is a systemic shock that spooks the entire economic system. We have just been going through one. So if you monitor markets you can buy into assets at the bottom and if you wish move out of markets reaching their peak. Good luck. Peter :pop:
Australians fell in love with property as an investment last decade. If they had known that property was to fall in price for 7 years they would have never signed up. And it's no better now is it. Our economy is on life support interest rates and all economic drivers are collapsing. Will property and rents go up from here? Like a snowballs chance in Hell.
House prices are up over the last seven years, and up over the past year as well.
The official ABS index is at an all time high. Nationally, house prices have never been higher.
Rents are rising too - check Alex's chart at the bottom of the page.
All the house price indices (ABS, APM, Residex and RData) show prices rising.
Here's the RPData index today...
So I assume you are calling the peak - i.e. you think rents and the house price indices will fall from this point?
So thats your problem - too much cane toad licking. You should give that habit away - it could lead to window licking.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
Of course, you didn't define "crash". But let's say a crash is a nominal price correction of 20% or more in the national index.
I'd say we will be waiting for 2018+ for that because of the boom that will be required to get that kind of bust. These things take 5+ years to build up and at a national level nothing has really started yet, let alone shown signs of frenzy. (But the anecdote in another thread about investors buying house+land packages in the Sydney area (?) does show localised overheating may be with us.)
2017 is a possibility but pretty unlikely from here.
Also I would expect that even if we had a 40% crash in 2018, the bottom of the crash will still be more than 50% higher than current levels.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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i wonder what the results might be if someone posted the same poll at MB
RPData_05Sep2013.jpg (26.85 KB)
