Well, so far the results are fairly consistent with all the other similar polls since 2007, with the majority believing 'The Crash' will happen 'next year'.
It's always just so close... just around the corner... we're nearly there...
I voted never, I can not see a point when all the property markets will "crash" at the same time.
There is certainly scope for downward momentum in some areas, but an Australia wide crash, I just do not see happening.
There is pressure to reduce the amount of wage rises now and in the (short to medium future) There is still a high level of personal debt and interest rates will rise, this is going to make an Australia wide property boom in the near term unlikely too.
Melbourne, maybe around 10% decline between now and 2017 (same year Mel put up) That 10% average though will come at the expense of some particular suburbs that will be well above that and some that will be less than that or even still get some growth happening.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
Well, so far the results are fairly consistent with all the other similar polls since 2007, with the majority believing 'The Crash' will happen 'next year'.
It's always just so close... just around the corner... we're nearly there...
Catweasel say even gurus and experts show inability to see or do the predict of crash,
so mouzealot need to learn that aggregate belief system,
Next Quarter 2 (8.3%) Next Year 10 (41.7%) 2015 2 (8.3%) 2016 1 (4.2%) 2017 1 (4.2%) 2018 or later 3 (12.5%) Never 5 (20.8%)
I think Shadow made a great point - the crash is always just around the corner for people with a negative attitude.
Looking at the results so far i just don't understand why the vast majority are expecting a crash next year when we are already experiencing growth and still have rate cuts feeding thought the system.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
Next Quarter 2 (8.3%) Next Year 10 (41.7%) 2015 2 (8.3%) 2016 1 (4.2%) 2017 1 (4.2%) 2018 or later 3 (12.5%) Never 5 (20.8%)
I think Shadow made a great point - the crash is always just around the corner for people with a negative attitude.
Looking at the results so far i just don't understand why the vast majority are expecting a crash next year when we are already experiencing growth and still have rate cuts feeding thought the system.
Well, the vast majority of actual economists and people did not see the GFC either, so not sure that a majority is a good indicator.
Next Quarter 2 (8.3%) Next Year 10 (41.7%) 2015 2 (8.3%) 2016 1 (4.2%) 2017 1 (4.2%) 2018 or later 3 (12.5%) Never 5 (20.8%)
I think Shadow made a great point - the crash is always just around the corner for people with a negative attitude.
Looking at the results so far i just don't understand why the vast majority are expecting a crash next year when we are already experiencing growth and still have rate cuts feeding thought the system.
Catweasel say strange.
If majority of mouse, expert and guru show little the ability to predict pop pop,
then should mouse always expect probability of crash?
It cannot assign coefficient,
because it have no ability or departure point.
Even army of pointy heads under a Greenspan can't see.
Looking at the results so far i just don't understand why the vast majority are expecting a crash next year when we are already experiencing growth and still have rate cuts feeding thought the system.
Their crash is a figment of their imagination and it will only exist in a virtual medium, they are the best kind of crashes in my books.
Well, so far the results are fairly consistent with all the other similar polls since 2007, with the majority believing 'The Crash' will happen 'next year'.
It's always just so close... just around the corner... we're nearly there...
Correct. Here's the result of a poll from April 2009 that I did on GHPC.
i wonder what the results might be if someone posted the same poll at MB
Catweasel
5 Sep 2013, 09:49 AM
Catweasel say strange.
If majority of mouse, expert and guru show little the ability to predict pop pop,
then should mouse always expect probability of crash?
It cannot assign coefficient,
because it have no ability or departure point.
Even army of pointy heads under a Greenspan can't see.
So why bunch of rapscalls and mouzealots?
good point but the price of money matters and we still have bullets in the holster. Expecting a disaster within the next 12 months under these conditions is more of an emotional prediction than a rational one IMHO.
Since 2008 there has been a cottage industry established in predicting house price crashes. This "industry" has become totally discredited over the past 12 months (I visted Steve Keens web site yesterday - he get almost no comments now).
So when a bubble forms, who will listen? This will increase the probability prices exceeding cost, creating excess supply, and causing a real bubble.
I reckon the biggest Bears at this point are probably today's bulls.
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i wonder what the results might be if someone posted the same poll at MB