THE REAL ESTATE MARKET WILL CRASH. It always does. And the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. Anyone who says real estate always goes up and it's the world's best investment does not know much about real estate
We've had few polls like this before, going back to GHPC days, and the general consensus among the bears is usually that the crash starts next quarter or next year.
But 12 years later, we're still waiting for 'The Bubble' to pop. So when does the big crash begin?
I've been hearing about the imminent crash since around 2007 which is when I started posting on forums.
The first known call was in 2001 by Neil Jenman...
We've had few polls like this before, going back to GHPC days, and the general consensus among the bears is usually that the crash starts next quarter or next year.
But 12 years later, we're still waiting for 'The Bubble' to pop. So when does the big crash begin?
maybe it has already crashed? they change thier prefered measures so often and claim all offical numbers are lies there could be a secret crash right now.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
I have declared that property will be 60% down by 2016.
When are you bulls going to admit that the world's economy is fucked up, and both bulls and bears have fair points?
Did they have quantitive easing 12 years ago? Rich Chinese? First Home Vendor's Boosts? SMSF investors? All the other stuff in the government's and RBA's bag of tricks?
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
Well I believe the Sydney crash began around the year 2000 and the Queensland one around 2008, dead cat bounces aside. But all states have entered crash mode now. I have seen fast and hard crashes in my day, but many more slow motion crashes like we are seeing in Australian property prices. In real dollar terms Australia is in a classic slow motion property crash.
I do believe you need to use actual selling prices to see this clearly, not just the over-inflated asking prices. And to see the effect of all this, take an average home bought in Sydney in say 2003, add tens years worth of mortgage interest on the loan, and then try and sell the home for that value today, adjusting your cost + interst repayments for the rampant inflation we have seen over the past 10 years.
If you do this you find yourself in a very deep hole.
I've been hearing about the imminent crash since around 2007 which is when I started posting on forums.
The first known call was in 2001 by Neil Jenman...
We've had few polls like this before, going back to GHPC days, and the general consensus among the bears is usually that the crash starts next quarter or next year.
But 12 years later, we're still waiting for 'The Bubble' to pop. So when does the big crash begin?
A very good question of course - and one that no-one can answer with any certainty. I have always been bearish on property. I was bearish in 2008 and Im bearish now. During that time I have bought, renovated and sold at a profit.
My thoughts are that it will crash at some point. However, in the long run you will always win with owning vs renting regardless of short term up and downs. Its simple, rents will always go up, your mortgage payments will always go down. Thats why I think its always better to own even if I think prices will fall. Waiting on the sidelines for a crash so that you can afford to buy is silly. If it crashes you are fucked either way and wont be able to buy cause you cant get a loan. And if it crashes now, even if it crashes 30%, those who bought in 2007 will still be up.
I was bearish in 2008 and I was wrong. I may be wrong now but Im willing to go out on a limb and call it again. My prediction is that prices will start to fall late this year. There are simply too many things that can go wrong.
-The current rally is only supported by low interest rates. Property is bought mostly by investors making a short term loss int he hope of selling at a higher price. -We are in unchartered territory now. Prices are simply insane. By any measure. If it wasn't a bubble before it sure is now. -China has a housing bubble of biblical proportions built up by credit on top of credit. A crash in China will have a massive impact on Australia. -Australia is not well equipped at all for a transition from a mining economy. We are still debating if internet is a good idea 15 years after the rest of the world has already implemented and built entire industries from fiber optic technology . We are falling so far behind on so many levels that its close to being too late. Local manufacturing is in the toilet and the level of education is very poor. There is very little business investment overall. -And on a lighter note they say the last bear must capitulate before a crash. Steve Keen was in my mind the last "major" bear. And he is always wrong.
I voted 2018 or later as never is too long a time frame for me. Cant see anything on the landscape that would indicate a crash in the near term especially since we have just went through a slump. I think commercial did crash here recently though.
take an average home bought in Sydney in say 2003, add tens years worth of mortgage interest on the loan, and then try and sell the home for that value today, adjusting your cost + interst repayments for the rampant inflation we have seen over the past 10 years.
If you do this you find yourself in a very deep hole.
And if you deduct the rental that you would have otherwise paid over the 10 years, how will it work out then?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Well I believe the Sydney crash began around the year 2000
Sydney prices are now more than double what they were in 2000... that's an interesting definition of 'crash' you've got there
Quote:
I do believe you need to use actual selling prices to see this clearly, not just the over-inflated asking prices.
All the major house price indices are based on selling prices... ABS, APM, Residex and RP Data.
Quote:
take an average home bought in Sydney in say 2003, add tens years worth of mortgage interest on the loan, and then try and sell the home for that value today, adjusting your cost + interst repayments for the rampant inflation we have seen over the past 10 years
What about all the rental income (or rent saved for a PPOR)?
i voted 2017 in memory of my drunken uncle who claimed Australia is ten years behind the US. The truth is unless we get Pauline Hanson for PM it might take much longer than that.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
i voted 2017 in memory of my drunken uncle who claimed Australia is ten years behind the US. The truth is unless we get Pauline Hanson for PM it might take much longer than that.
I doubt it, but I hope she get's her senate seat. We need a few loons in parliament for entertainment and we're a bit short at the moment.
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